2008 Based on Polls
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« on: November 25, 2007, 02:30:38 PM »
Sorry if this has been done before:

The Democrats win 317-221.

When there were no polls, I put the states down for the 2004 result.  When there was a tossup, I used the average of the three most recent polls.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2007, 04:30:36 PM »
Kinda funny to see IN red.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2007, 05:04:41 PM »

I totally agree.  Some of the states were very close; Tennessee went Republican 46.5-46.0, and, if I remeber correctly, Virginia went GOP by less than 1 point.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2007, 05:21:28 PM »
Quote from: Warner for Senate '08 on November 25, 2007, 02:30:38 PM
Sorry if this has been done before:

The Democrats win 317-221.

When there were no polls, I put the states down for the 2004 result.  When there was a tossup, I used the average of the three most recent polls.

I just don't see Hillary ever winning Indiana.  Even Missouri will be a stretch once the campaign gets started. 
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2007, 05:23:48 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on November 25, 2007, 05:21:28 PM
Quote from: Warner for Senate '08 on November 25, 2007, 02:30:38 PM
Sorry if this has been done before:

The Democrats win 317-221.

When there were no polls, I put the states down for the 2004 result.  When there was a tossup, I used the average of the three most recent polls.

I just don't see Hillary ever winning Indiana.  Even Missouri will be a stretch once the campaign gets started. 

I don't see her winning Indiana either, but the current polls have the Democrats ahead, so that is what I was using.  This map is only based on polls, nothing else.
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Floridude
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2007, 11:49:10 PM »
The poll didnt show any specific democrat ahead; it showed a generic democrat ahead by 5 points.  Nationally, a generic democrat is ahead by 10-15 points, but Obama and Hillary are only ahead of Giuliani by a few points, so I doubt the mentioned poll means Indiana would go Democrat if th election was held today.

Bob Dole won Indiana by 6 points.  I think that in a reasonably close election a republican can win it by more than that.

 I highly doubt it will go Dem, and if it does, the Democrats don't need it to win.
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Brandon H
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2007, 10:11:50 PM »
I don't think we'll see anyone get over 300 EV's for a long time.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2007, 03:23:47 AM »
Quote from: Senator Brandon H on November 26, 2007, 10:11:50 PM
I don't think we'll see anyone get over 300 EV's for a long time.

I disagree.  I think this election will at minimum be closer to 300 than the previous two have been.  Being over 300 is actually the norm if look back at our electoral history.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2007, 08:23:31 AM »
Updated:


The Democrats win 346-192
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HappyWarrior
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2007, 10:36:03 AM »
SC?  Wtf?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2007, 10:42:03 AM »

Th one poll for that state is from 12/11, and shows the Democrats winning by 1.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2007, 12:59:30 PM »
Based on Safe/Toss-Up:
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Padfoot
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« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2007, 12:28:59 AM »

Dems 254
Reps 136
Toss-up 157

Meaning Republicans need to win at least 85% of the toss-up EVs to win the election.
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