Hoover vs. Roosevelt in 1940, with a twist.

[PBrunsel]

In 1928, Secretary of Commerce Herbert Clark Hoover decides not to seek the presidency. His business affairs are in tatters, and he wants to return home to help secure his families future. The Republicans are greatly surprised by Hoover’s decision, and the Kansas City Convention is a crazy one. After several ballots, Vice-President Charles Dawes is nominated for President. The Republican ticket of Vice-President Charles Dawes of Illinois and Kansas Senator Charles Curtis defeat the Democratic slate of New York Governor Al Smith and Arkansas Senator Joseph Robinson. The Dawes Administration in ineffective in dealing with the economic recession of the 1930s, now known as the Great Depression.  The nation elects Governor Franklin Roosevelt of New York and Representative John Garner of Texas to the White House, tossing out President Dawes in 1932.

Herbert Hoover becomes a leading opponent of the New Deal. He writes “The Challenge to Liberty” in 1935, a scathing critique of FDR’s New Deal. In 1936, the Republicans try to nominate Hoover, their most popular party member, for president, but eh refuses the draft movement. He backs Kansas Governor Alfred Landon for president, and Landon is nominated. Despite constant campaigning by Hoover for Landon, the GOP standard bearer wins few states.

By 1940, Hoover has established himself as the most powerful Republican in the country. After the Court Packing Scheme, Hoover's charges that Roosevelt is leading an imperial presidency seem to have some merit. With a mild recession hitting the nation since 1938 and war clouds looming for the nation, Hoover decides that his campaign will begin in ’40. The GOP Convention nominated the former Secretary of Commerce by acclamation, and paired him with Governor John W. Bricker for Vice-President.

How does a still admired Herbert Hoover fair against President Roosevelt in 1940?     

[Lincoln Republican]

With the circumstances you describe, a respected Hoover, a recession hitting the nation, the threat of war at a time when much of the U.S. was still isiolationist, Hoover tightens up the election remarkably, but incumbent President Roosevelt still wins.  America in 1940 was not ready to turf the President, in particular one as still admired by a large segment of the population as was Roosevelt. 

Roosevelt/Wallace             294
Hoover/Bricker                   237

[Dr. Cynic]

Dispite the Court packing, Roosevelt still faced a tough opponent that year in real life, Willkie.

Hoover, Landon, and the conservatives could not figure out a way to defeat the New Dealer. Liberal Republicans like Willkie and Dewey did little better.

The fact remains that no matter what, nobody was going to defeat FDR, just like no Democrat could beat Reagan in 1984. Actually, Hoover and FDR had been friends until misunderstandings, such as when Hoover was late to a meeting with the nation's governor's, and left FDR, in his heavy braces, in the summer heat, standing for nearly thirty minutes. Or maybe FDR's slight when he had refused to work with Hoover after the election. Either way, both had grievences against the other that would not have come to be if Hoover hadn't been President.

FDR would likely have been very surprised, and probably personally hurt when a man he would've seen as a personal friend would've written such a scathing attack... (You didn't mention anything of what Hoover said in the writing, so I can only assume)

In the end though, war clouds, court packing, third term... The Republicans couldn't win on that issue with a better candidate. FDR would also be motivated with an attack from Hoover five years earlier, and he was the superior politician to Hoover, even if he wasn't the superior to him in intellect.

FDR wins about the same way he did in RL, give or take a couple states either way.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Roosevelt was still very popular, the race would have been much closer, but FDR would still have pulled it out, 321-210.

[gorkay]

FDR would still have won. Hoover was still pretty unpopular in 1940.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Franklin D. Roosevelt/Henry Wallace (D): 286 EV, 52%
Herbert Hoover/John Bricker (R): 245 EV, 48%

If Hoover can carry Pennsylvania in 1932 when the Great Depression was in full swing, I see no reason why he can't carry it again. Hoover falls short, when Roosevelt narrowly carries the state of California and it's 22 Electoral College votes.