NH Fox Poll: Obama catching Clinton; McCain, Giuliani not too far behind Romney.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:16:01 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  NH Fox Poll: Obama catching Clinton; McCain, Giuliani not too far behind Romney.
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NH Fox Poll: Obama catching Clinton; McCain, Giuliani not too far behind Romney.  (Read 1161 times)
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 30, 2007, 05:16:50 PM »
« edited: November 30, 2007, 09:02:47 PM by Eraserhead »

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FOX_NH_2008_release113007_web.pdf

GOP:

Romney 29%
McCain 21%
Giuliani 19%
Huckabee 7%
Paul 4%
Thompson 4%
Hunter 1%
Tancredo -
Don't know 14%

DEMS:

Clinton 30%
Obama 23%
Edwards 17%
Richardson 12%
Biden 3%
Kucinich 3%
Dodd 1%
Gravel -
Don't know 12%


Second choices for GOP:

Romney 20%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 12%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 4%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 2%
Tancredo 2%
Don't know 26%

Second choices for Democrats:

Obama 21%
Edwards 19%
Clinton 13%
Richardson 9%
Biden 6%
Dodd 3%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 1%
Don't know 22%












Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2007, 05:25:32 PM »

You should probably mention that this is a poll of New Hampshire.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2007, 05:30:00 PM »

And people say John Edwards can't win New Hampshire.

I think whoever wins Iowa is going to win NH and use the momentum from there to win the nomination. NH is going to tighten considerably this next month.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2007, 05:35:18 PM »

You should probably mention that this is a poll of New Hampshire.


Oops. I'll fix that.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2007, 05:39:54 PM »

I certainly like that Hillary is in third among likely NH voters.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2007, 06:12:46 PM »

The likely numbers look fishy. Outlier? I like them though, so I hope not.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2007, 06:16:07 PM »

Eraserhead, I'm afraid you made a mistake here.  Reread the first two pages of that PDF file.  The first set of numbers you posted are people's first choice candidates.  The second set of numbers gives people's second choices.  (It's phrased as "If your candidate were not on the ballot, which candidate would be your second choice".)  The two sets of numbers are for the same group of "Likely Democratic Primary Voters" and "Likely Republican Primary Voters".

In any case, I'm starting to think that Giuliani is not a lock to even finish in the top 3 in either Iowa or NH.  Thompson is close enough behind him in Iowa that he could potentially beat Giuliani for 3rd place there.  And in NH, it's obviously possible for him to finish behind both Romney and McCain, while Huckabee could also surge ahead at the last minute if he gets enough momentum from a strong showing in Iowa.  What would it do to Giuliani's campaign if the "national frontrunner" actually ended up in fourth place in both of the first two states to vote?
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2007, 09:01:59 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2007, 04:35:33 AM by Eraserhead »

Eraserhead, I'm afraid you made a mistake here.  Reread the first two pages of that PDF file.  The first set of numbers you posted are people's first choice candidates.  The second set of numbers gives people's second choices.  (It's phrased as "If your candidate were not on the ballot, which candidate would be your second choice".)  The two sets of numbers are for the same group of "Likely Democratic Primary Voters" and "Likely Republican Primary Voters".

In any case, I'm starting to think that Giuliani is not a lock to even finish in the top 3 in either Iowa or NH.  Thompson is close enough behind him in Iowa that he could potentially beat Giuliani for 3rd place there.  And in NH, it's obviously possible for him to finish behind both Romney and McCain, while Huckabee could also surge ahead at the last minute if he gets enough momentum from a strong showing in Iowa.  What would it do to Giuliani's campaign if the "national frontrunner" actually ended up in fourth place in both of the first two states to vote?


Crap. I'm having quite a day. I'll fix that too.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2007, 09:36:14 PM »

NH certainly doesn't look like much of a firewall for Clinton really. SC looks more like one (well depending on what poll you look at).
Logged
Floridude
Rookie
**
Posts: 177


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2007, 10:33:52 PM »

If Obama managed to win Iowa and New Hampshire, I tend to doubt that South Carolina would be a very strong firewall, especially with all the media coverage that Obama would get, especially from besting Clinton in NH.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2007, 11:29:47 PM »

Those second choice numbers for the Democrats are very encouraging. At 17%, Edwards will only make it over 15% in just over half of areas; everywhere else, the second choice will count, and Obama leads Clinton substantially in the second-choice arena. And to think, a month ago I was despairing of having a candidate I really liked to vote for.

Of course, these numbers are likely to change substantially based on whatever happens in Iowa.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2007, 11:37:09 PM »

Why does the second choice matter in New Hampshire? Isn't it just a regular ballot-election primary?
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2007, 12:13:17 AM »

Why does the second choice matter in New Hampshire? Isn't it just a regular ballot-election primary?

Yes, it's just a regular primary in NH, so there's no 15% viability on a precinct-by-precinct basis, as in IA.  So Verily is just confused.  Apparently, there's something about this thread that creates a lot of confusion.  Wink
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2007, 12:30:39 AM »

Why does the second choice matter in New Hampshire? Isn't it just a regular ballot-election primary?

Yes, it's just a regular primary in NH, so there's no 15% viability on a precinct-by-precinct basis, as in IA.  So Verily is just confused.  Apparently, there's something about this thread that creates a lot of confusion.  Wink


Yeah, you're right. Oops.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2007, 03:06:37 PM »

Oh, by the way, this would be the first NH poll (from any pollster) in which Clinton has been as low as 30% since July.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 14 queries.