IA PrimD: Rasmussen: Clinton with a 2% lead over Obama

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Iowa President by Rasmussen on 2007-11-27

Summary: Clinton: 27%, Edwards: 24%, Obama: 25%, Richardson: 10%, Other: %, Undecided: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

There is actually some very good news for Edwards here. He has a clear lead among "second choices".

Edwards 28%
Obama 18%
Clinton 16%
Richardson 15%

I'm kind of surprised they included Richardson here though. His people may end up deciding this thing since its unlikely that he will reach 15% in most areas.

[Mr. Morden]

I'd like to see one of these polls give us a table of the second choices, breaking down which second choices tend to go with which first choices.  As you say, Richardson will probably not reach viability in most precincts, so the second choices for him are pretty important.  Whereas, Clinton and Obama will probably break 15% at most sites, so the second choices for those voters are probably less important.  Of course, you'd need a decent sized sample for a poll on second choices like that to tell us much.

[ottermax]

I hope Obama can pull this one off. Richardson is still my first choice, but by a slim margin.

[MODU]

Summary: Clinton: 27%, Edwards: 24%, Obama: 25%

All within the margin of error, so we have a three-way tie still. Second poll to show that.

[Lief 🗽]

The cross-tabs look good for Edwards, but this race is still ridiculously close.

[Eraserhead]

I really do think there is a good shot that Clinton comes in third.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Definitely a 3-way race. Those 2nd preferences will matter.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I believe Clinton will win it in the end.

[Eraserhead]

Another interesting internal is that Obama's support is as solid as Clinton's now. Both are at 68%. Edwards isn't far behind at 63%.

[Gustaf]

How many precincts are there? I thought there were quite a lot?