NH Fox Poll: Obama catching Clinton; McCain, Giuliani not too far behind Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

You should probably mention that this is a poll of New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

Eraserhead, I'm afraid you made a mistake here.  Reread the first two pages of that PDF file.  The first set of numbers you posted are people's first choice candidates.  The second set of numbers gives people's second choices.  (It's phrased as "If your candidate were not on the ballot, which candidate would be your second choice".)  The two sets of numbers are for the same group of "Likely Democratic Primary Voters" and "Likely Republican Primary Voters".

In any case, I'm starting to think that Giuliani is not a lock to even finish in the top 3 in either Iowa or NH.  Thompson is close enough behind him in Iowa that he could potentially beat Giuliani for 3rd place there.  And in NH, it's obviously possible for him to finish behind both Romney and McCain, while Huckabee could also surge ahead at the last minute if he gets enough momentum from a strong showing in Iowa.  What would it do to Giuliani's campaign if the "national frontrunner" actually ended up in fourth place in both of the first two states to vote?

[Mr. Morden]

Why does the second choice matter in New Hampshire? Isn't it just a regular ballot-election primary?

Yes, it's just a regular primary in NH, so there's no 15% viability on a precinct-by-precinct basis, as in IA.  So Verily is just confused.  Apparently, there's something about this thread that creates a lot of confusion. 

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, by the way, this would be the first NH poll (from any pollster) in which Clinton has been as low as 30% since July.