Which of these states will first go Democrat?

[nclib]

I vote Virginia.

Note: If you think two or more of these will go Democratic at the same time, vote which one you think is more likely.

[Nation]

If a guy like Evan Bayh runs, it's possible he could win Indiana.

[MarkDel]

Definitely Virginia. The Northeast corner of Virginia (near DC) is painfully Democratic and becoming more Democratic with each election cycle.

[Keystone Phil]

If a guy like Evan Bayh runs, it's possible he could win Indiana.

Yep. Bayh as the Dem Presidential nominee - Dems win Indiana. Bayh as the Dem VP nominee - Indiana is a tossup.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Bayh won't win the nomination anytime soon, thank God.

So I voted Virginia.

[Beef]

In this order:

1. Virginia
2. South Dakota
3. Oklahoma
4. Kansas
5. North Dakota
6. Indiana
7. Alaska
8. Nebraska
9. Wyoming
10. Idaho
11. Utah

I can see Alaska, Wyoming, and Idaho going sooner if the Republicans become increasingly big-government and anti-libertarian.

[Beef]

If a guy like Evan Bayh runs, it's possible he could win Indiana.

Yep. Bayh as the Dem Presidential nominee - Dems win Indiana. Bayh as the Dem VP nominee - Indiana is a tossup.

Yeah, but can you really call Bayh a Democrat?

[AuH2O]

You mean in one election, or permanently?

Because none of those will turn into DNC land under the current 2 party arrangement.

Virginia is the most overrated 'trending' place in the US. The lefties in Northern Virginia are government employees and trial lawyers and the like, and there is a limit on how many of them can live there; i.e., most of the new growth is party-neutral.

Look at what happened in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado when middle and upper middle class Californians fled- those states picked up GOP voters. The high tech growth in N Virginia mostly attracts moderate Republicans.

The Western part of the state is trending GOP because of social issues. That will stem any residual growth in Arlington and parts of Fairfax. In the state legistlature, the GOP has gone from a minority party to holding 2/3 of the seats in about a decade. That's not a state trending hard to the Dems.

Mark Warner is similar to Evan Bayh. Democrats of that ilk can win anywhere, just as Mitt Romney won in Mass. for the GOP.

Plus, um, doesn't this thread assume the nation is trending Dem? That's a pretty bad assumption if he you look at party registration.

[Keystone Phil]

If a guy like Evan Bayh runs, it's possible he could win Indiana.

Yep. Bayh as the Dem Presidential nominee - Dems win Indiana. Bayh as the Dem VP nominee - Indiana is a tossup.

Yeah, but can you really call Bayh a Democrat?

Many Dems feel the way you feel so, like BRTD said, he won't win the nomination.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Bayh wouldn't even be a strong candidate anyway. He only wins in Indiana because of his family name.

He is extremely unispiring, even worse than Kerry and Gore, who while not the most interesting people on the planet at least are able bring in the liberal wing of the party pretty well, Bayh can not. And his views wouldn't help him in many states, he would have a tough winning populist voters, and might ironically win Indiana and lose Ohio, possibly even Michigan.

He's just lousy overall.

[nclib]

You mean in one election, or permanently?

In one election.

Plus, um, doesn't this thread assume the nation is trending Dem? That's a pretty bad assumption if he you look at party registration.

Not necessarily. But sooner or later almost every state will go to the other party in a landslide.

[MarkDel]

You mean in one election, or permanently?

Because none of those will turn into DNC land under the current 2 party arrangement.

Virginia is the most overrated 'trending' place in the US. The lefties in Northern Virginia are government employees and trial lawyers and the like, and there is a limit on how many of them can live there; i.e., most of the new growth is party-neutral.

Look at what happened in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado when middle and upper middle class Californians fled- those states picked up GOP voters. The high tech growth in N Virginia mostly attracts moderate Republicans.

The Western part of the state is trending GOP because of social issues. That will stem any residual growth in Arlington and parts of Fairfax. In the state legistlature, the GOP has gone from a minority party to holding 2/3 of the seats in about a decade. That's not a state trending hard to the Dems.

Mark Warner is similar to Evan Bayh. Democrats of that ilk can win anyway, just as Mitt Romney won in Mass.

Plus, um, doesn't this thread assume the nation is trending Dem? That's a pretty bad assumption if he you look at party registration.

You are correct that there is a limit to the expansion of the Democrats in Northern Virginia...they are almost exclusively Government employees and human vultures (lawyers). However, a Democratic administration would lead to the creation of MORE government jobs, which helps the Democrats. And as far as a "lack of space" for development, that's not entirely true. People are just moving farther and farther South on the I-95 corridor. I could not believe how different Fredericksburg (for example) was the last time I visited. This used to be a quasi-rural area, but not any longer, it looks like a cheap DC suburb now, especially in terms of the racial and ethnic makeup...ie...more Democratic voters.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Lack of space is no problem, just look at how far Chicago metro expands out west. Hell, it might reach Richmond at this rate.

[MarkDel]

If a guy like Evan Bayh runs, it's possible he could win Indiana.

Yep. Bayh as the Dem Presidential nominee - Dems win Indiana. Bayh as the Dem VP nominee - Indiana is a tossup.

Yeah, but can you really call Bayh a Democrat?

Beef,

No, Bayh is clearly not a Democrat who has a true place in the modern Democratic Party. He definitely should switch parties, along with other Senators like Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson.

Remember how Howard Dean said that he represents the "Democratic Wing" of the Democratic Party? Well, guys like Evan Bayh represent the "American Wing" of the Democratic Party....which means they have no home in a party which would allow American foreign policy to be determined by the world opinion, the United Nations and select European nations.

[Giant Saguaro]

Probably VA, of this list. And I don't see it going Dem for a while; this breed of Democrats, though, won't win any of these states until they gain a better understanding of the people who live in them. Maybe deep down they do, I don't know, and just won't change where they need to change to get these peoples' votes. I mean who would you rather pander to, the voters in Cali, who will give you 55 EV's, or the good folks in Utah, who will give you 5? Right.

[AuH2O]

When you consider the time frame we're talking about though... I have a feeling government and it's associated industries are going to be a little more decentralized in the future, just because of communications advances. Virginia politics will be interesting, but the state stays GOP indefinitely.

Plus, at some point, the east coast is going to have to develop some kind of real option for transportation. People just aren't going to spend 2 hours driving to work... Nova is already a complete traffic nightmare (as is DC of course), my area (Hampton Roads) is 10th worst in the US, and Richmond isn't getting smaller. Maglev work is being done at a University near where I live.

I wonder how much more Montgomery County, Maryland can grow? Because land is much cheaper in MD than VA...

[classical liberal]

VA is nowhere near as strong GOP as any of the other states listed.

AuH2O-

People do spend 2 hours driving to work.  Stafford, VA and Frederick, MD are 2 hour commutes.  Those areas have a lot of cheap land and are growing rapidly.

MD land is not cheaper than VA land.  In fact as a percentage of the total land, the opposite is true.

As for Montgomery County, from I-370 southward is developed about as much as it can be barring an expansion of the urban area across the beltway.  The northern half of the county is like the western half of Fairfax county: mostly undeveloped and growing numerically faster but proportionately slower than Stafford or Frederick.

[Shira]

Definitely Virginia. The Northeast corner of Virginia (near DC) is painfully Democratic and becoming more Democratic with each election cycle.

Since 1988 the GOP in VA are going down by pace of 0.3% each yesr.

[classical liberal]

My final prediction for VA is Bush +3.7:

Bush 51.4 - Kerry 47.7 - Badnarik 1.0

[Shira]

My final prediction for VA is Bush +3.7:

Bush 51.4 - Kerry 47.7 - Badnarik 1.0

Very possible

[So the Heroes Fall]

People do spend 2 hours driving to work.  Stafford, VA and Frederick, MD are 2 hour commutes.  Those areas have a lot of cheap land and are growing rapidly.

I SHOULD move to the Twin Cities then. It's less than a 2 hour drive. If I could could fit my school schedule in, it'd work perfectly. Of course I could transfer my job.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probably VA, of this list. And I don't see it going Dem for a while; this breed of Democrats, though, won't win any of these states until they gain a better understanding of the people who live in them. Maybe deep down they do, I don't know, and just won't change where they need to change to get these peoples' votes. I mean who would you rather pander to, the voters in Cali, who will give you 55 EV's, or the good folks in Utah, who will give you 5? Right.

California has 35 million people to Utahs 2 million, and the cost of living is a lot lower there.

[English]

Virginia first, North Dakota second.

[cwelsch]

WY, ID, UT and NE are four of the top five most reliablke GOP states, and by the biggest margins.  They're going nowhere.

I'd say it's VA or OK.

[Gustaf]

Definitely Virginia, the only of the listed states that might go Democratic this election (not in a tied election, but if Kerry wins by a margin of 5% or so nationally) and might do so in the near future.

Of the others, I don't know...