Democrats Hope to Pick Up Two Governorships

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democratic governors said that "they are striving to increase their numbers from 28 governors to at least 30 in 2008, when 11 states that will hold governors’ elections," according to CQ Politics.

Key targets: Missouri and Indiana.

"This year, the Democrats won control of a Republican-held governorship in Kentucky, while Republicans offset that loss with a victory in Louisiana and also successfully defended their governorship in Mississippi."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/12/05/democrats_hope_to_pick_up_two_governorships.html

[DownWithTheLeft]

Republicans have a better shot a gaining seats then Dems do imho

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans have a better shot a gaining seats then Dems do imho

You have got to be kidding me.  Republicans don't even have any targets.  The only possible on ewould be Washington, but if Rossi could not win in 2004, which was a good Republican year, I don't think he will be able to come as close in 2008. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

Republicans have a better shot a gaining seats then Dems do imho

You have got to be kidding me.  Republicans don't even have any targets.  The only possible on ewould be Washington, but if Rossi could not win in 2004, which was a good Republican year, I don't think he will be able to come as close in 2008. 

No reason to think DE and NC could not competitive.  WA and MO should almost definietly flip imo, and then I can't see anything flipping after that.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans have a better shot a gaining seats then Dems do imho

You have got to be kidding me.  Republicans don't even have any targets.  The only possible on ewould be Washington, but if Rossi could not win in 2004, which was a good Republican year, I don't think he will be able to come as close in 2008. 

No reason to think DE and NC could not competitive.  WA and MO should almost definietly flip imo, and then I can't see anything flipping after that.

Washington will not flip in a Presidential year.  Ill say it again, if Rossi couldn't win in a good Republican year like 2004, he wont win in 2008.  Indiana has a better chance of flipping than Washington.  With Delaware and North Carolina, Republicans don't even have viable candidates. 

[Verily]

Republicans have a better shot a gaining seats then Dems do imho

You have got to be kidding me.  Republicans don't even have any targets.  The only possible on ewould be Washington, but if Rossi could not win in 2004, which was a good Republican year, I don't think he will be able to come as close in 2008. 

No reason to think DE and NC could not competitive.  WA and MO should almost definietly flip imo, and then I can't see anything flipping after that.

There actually is good reason to think that North Carolina can't be competitive: the Democrats have two stellar candidates and the Republicans have none. Additionally, North Carolina is much like Arkansas in preferring Democrats overwhelmingly at the state level. It will look a lot like Beebe-Hutchinson did in 2006.

Delaware is less certain in terms of candidates, but the Republicans really don't stand a chance in a Presidential year without a star candidate, and the only "star" Republican in Delaware is Mike Castle, who is old and in ill health.

[bullmoose88]

Republicans have a better shot a gaining seats then Dems do imho

You have got to be kidding me.  Republicans don't even have any targets.  The only possible on ewould be Washington, but if Rossi could not win in 2004, which was a good Republican year, I don't think he will be able to come as close in 2008. 

No reason to think DE and NC could not competitive.  WA and MO should almost definietly flip imo, and then I can't see anything flipping after that.

There actually is good reason to think that North Carolina can't be competitive: the Democrats have two stellar candidates and the Republicans have none. Additionally, North Carolina is much like Arkansas in preferring Democrats overwhelmingly at the state level. It will look a lot like Beebe-Hutchinson did in 2006.

Delaware is less certain in terms of candidates, but the Republicans really don't stand a chance in a Presidential year without a star candidate, and the only "star" Republican in Delaware is Mike Castle, who is old and in ill health.

Any chance the GOP could find some random DuPont to run on the name?

[Verily]

Republicans have a better shot a gaining seats then Dems do imho

You have got to be kidding me.  Republicans don't even have any targets.  The only possible on ewould be Washington, but if Rossi could not win in 2004, which was a good Republican year, I don't think he will be able to come as close in 2008. 

No reason to think DE and NC could not competitive.  WA and MO should almost definietly flip imo, and then I can't see anything flipping after that.

There actually is good reason to think that North Carolina can't be competitive: the Democrats have two stellar candidates and the Republicans have none. Additionally, North Carolina is much like Arkansas in preferring Democrats overwhelmingly at the state level. It will look a lot like Beebe-Hutchinson did in 2006.

Delaware is less certain in terms of candidates, but the Republicans really don't stand a chance in a Presidential year without a star candidate, and the only "star" Republican in Delaware is Mike Castle, who is old and in ill health.

Any chance the GOP could find some random DuPont to run on the name?

No idea; I don't profess a whole lot of knowledge on Delaware politics.

[Gabu]

No reason to think DE and NC could not competitive.  WA and MO should almost definietly flip imo, and then I can't see anything flipping after that.

"Almost definitely"?  You seem to have a rather strange definition of "almost definitely".

[bgwah]

I don't want to underestimate Rossi, as it will be another close election, but he definitely has an uphill battle and I find it premature to say he will almost definitely win.

Gregoire hasn't had any huge mess-ups. I think she pissed off some people with the property tax thing recently, but I'm not convinced it's enough to cost her re-election. I suspect the GOP candidate for President will do worse in Washington than Bush did in 2004, and that will probably drag down Rossi somewhat. I highly doubt Romney or Huckabee would do well in Washington, especially against Obama. A Clinton-Giuliani match-up would produce the highest possible Republican vote for President in Washington, I think (of likely match-ups that is--McCain would do well here, too, but it doesn't look like he has a very good chance at getting the nomination). From  my personal observations, I don't know anyone who voted for Gregoire in 2004 who won't again in 2008. I can think of a couple people who are doing the opposite, though. And of course she now has the advantage of being the incumbent. The Libertarian in 2004 was a lesbian who supposedly wanted to prove Libertarians could take votes away from Democrats, too. Will that be the case next year? Perhaps, but I doubt it. Many people also wrote-in Ron Sims--about one thousand in King County from what I remember. I doubt this will happen again. That many votes probably won't matter next time, but you never know. Gregoire also learned from the mistakes of the 2004 election, and will hopefully make sure Washington voters know just how far-right Rossi really is. He is not a moderate yet many people thought he was for some reason.

With that said, I think Rossi still has relatively good prospects for 2008. But for the moment, I would have to rate the race as slightly lean Democrat.

[Meeker]

I mostly agree with Jesus, and I think the key point in what he said is that there's no reason for a Gregoire 2004 voter to switch over to Rossi next year. She's delivered on what she said she'd do and hasn't done anything to piss of moderate or liberal independents. Combined with the fact that Rossi and the GOP have a) no money, b) nothing to run on other than typical boogeyman Republican tactics which Washington hasn't bought since the 1980's and c) a Republican nominee who's probably going to do worse than Bush and you get a very difficult election for Rossi to win.

At the same time however, from the couple of conversations I've had with people in the Gregoire camp they're taking him very, very seriously and aren't messing around.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I would say the Democratic Presidential candidate carries Washington with over 10% of the vote, something like 54%-43%.  Gregoire will win by the same margin Kerry did in 2004, or rather Rossi will be able to convince the Bush voters to comeout for him and outran the Republican by about 2%-3% of the vote.  My prediction:

WASHINGTON: PRESIDENT -
54% (D) Obama
43% (R) Giuliani


WASHINGTON: GOVERNOR -
52% (D) Gregoire
45% (R) Rossi

[Alcon]

It would be incredibly dangerous to underestimate Rossi.  He's never done anything that I consider especially stupid, and frankly, seven points is hard for me to see (too many 2004 Rossi voters in the suburbs likely won't switch and enjoy splitting tickets).  He's also running on a clever quasi-populist route this time, but not in a way likely to offend Bellevuites (if that's a word).

I'll pretty much guarantee a race closer than the Presidential race.  But I should never underestimate the Washington GOP's ability to absolutely combust (e.g., Mike McGavick).

[Gabu]

It would be incredibly dangerous to underestimate Rossi.

Not arguing there, but to say he will "almost definitely" win when polls have shown Gregoire ahead and with approval ratings near or above 50% is rather a stretch.

[Joe Republic]

Delaware is less certain in terms of candidates, but the Republicans really don't stand a chance in a Presidential year without a star candidate, and the only "star" Republican in Delaware is Mike Castle, who is old and in ill health.

... and ineligible, having already served two terms as the term-limited governor.

[Verily]

Delaware is less certain in terms of candidates, but the Republicans really don't stand a chance in a Presidential year without a star candidate, and the only "star" Republican in Delaware is Mike Castle, who is old and in ill health.

... and ineligible, having already served two terms as the term-limited governor.

Right, that too. Heh.

[Alcon]

It would be incredibly dangerous to underestimate Rossi.

Not arguing there, but to say he will "almost definitely" win when polls have shown Gregoire ahead and with approval ratings near or above 50% is rather a stretch.

I had actually mentally ignored DWTL's post, and wasn't defending it. 

[CavanaughPark]

Washington will not flip in a Presidential year.  Ill say it again, if Rossi couldn't win in a good Republican year like 2004, he wont win in 2008.  Indiana has a better chance of flipping than Washington.  With Delaware and North Carolina, Republicans don't even have viable candidates. 

Indiana is more likely to flip than Washington yet Republicans have a viable candidate in Washington and Democrats don't in Indiana. Hm.

[Mr.Phips]

Washington will not flip in a Presidential year.  Ill say it again, if Rossi couldn't win in a good Republican year like 2004, he wont win in 2008.  Indiana has a better chance of flipping than Washington.  With Delaware and North Carolina, Republicans don't even have viable candidates. 

Indiana is more likely to flip than Washington yet Republicans have a viable candidate in Washington and Democrats don't in Indiana. Hm.

Dino Rossi couldnt even win in a good Republican year like 2004.  Jill Long Thompson is a skilled politician who held onto one of the most heavily Republican districts in the country(IN-04) for three terms.  If she was able to do that, she has a chance to beat Daniels. 

[CavanaughPark]

Yes, she had some measure of political skill in the the late 1980s. Now, in 2007-08, the collective response to Thompson's candidacy is "Who?"

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yes, she had some measure of political skill in the the late 1980s. Now, in 2007-08, the collective response to Thompson's candidacy is "Who?"

The correct response is not "who," it's "Oh, yeah, that woman who's lost a whole bunch of races for stuff since she was last relevant a couple decades ago."

Watch out, Daniels—a perennial candidate is coming to getcha!

[MarkWarner08]

Yes, she had some measure of political skill in the the late 1980s. Now, in 2007-08, the collective response to Thompson's candidacy is "Who?"

The correct response is not "who," it's "Oh, yeah, that woman who's lost a whole bunch of races for stuff since she was last relevant a couple decades ago."

Watch out, Daniels—a perennial candidate is coming to getcha!

Thompson also recently lost in IN-02, a House district specifically drawn by Democrats to elect her to Congress. Pretty embarrassing, indeed.

[HardRCafé]

Have I mentioned lately I am very excited about her?

[MarkWarner08]

Have I mentioned lately I am very excited about her?

Do you also have a "thing" for Myrth York?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have I mentioned lately I am very excited about her?

Do you also have a "thing" for Myrth York?

Don't we all?