Glasgow East by-election

[minionofmidas]

Yes. Glasgow had crazy seats back then. Glasgow Central was the first to declare in 1979 and had about 2 voters or something.

Thought it was more like three

11,000 votes cast, on a 60% turnout. 3 times that by 1983.

[afleitch]

Yes. Glasgow had crazy seats back then. Glasgow Central was the first to declare in 1979 and had about 2 voters or something.

Thought it was more like three

11,000 votes cast, on a 60% turnout. 3 times that by 1983.

The 1983 seat was a different Central. It extended more south than the old Central.

Which is good point for me to roll out this


Glasgow with Rutherglen.

As for how parts of the seat voted, I'm still working on that one. To start off with, the total votes cast in the two MM wards that are included in the seat are as follows

Ward 20 Baillieston

LAB 4770 (3 candidates)
SNP 3449 (2 canidates - including John Mason)
CON 678
SOL 466
LIB 392
SSP 226
UNI 216
GRN 189

Ward 19 Shettleston

LAB 4616 (3 candidates)
SNP 1896 (1 candidate)
CON 565
SOL 458
LIB 420
BNP 268
GRN 227
UNI 190
SSP 168

This excludes the old wards of Parkhead (Catholic - heavy Labour) Carntyne (significant setteled 'travelling' population - heavy Labour) Garthamlock and Easterhouse (again heavy Labour)

Masons strongest area was of course in Baillieston Ward. But remember Margaret Curran is the MSP for Baillieston. In 1999, the Labour majority here (Curran v Grace-Elder) was just under 13%. The SNP slipped waaay back in 2003 but in 2007 could only poll 5207 votes in comparison to the 8217 cast in 1999. Baillieston was one of the safest Labour seats in Glasgow in 2007.

In short, Masons's 'backyard' was also Currans which should make for some interesting results. What I can tell you is that Labour were comfortably ahead until after 5pm. For once it did not benefit from the post rush-hour vote. In fact it was quite the opposite.

[Verily]

Reports were, during the campaign, that it was Easterhouse which swung very strongly from Labour to the SNP. But that doesn't make it the case, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, it's the both-candidates-bases-in-Baillieston thing that made me wonder. Of course if the original Labour candidate (a Shettleston cllr. IIRC) hadn't dropped out it'd be more obvious who did well where.

What I can tell you is that Labour were comfortably ahead until after 5pm. For once it did not benefit from the post rush-hour vote. In fact it was quite the opposite.

Interesting; would I be wrong in assuming that that might point to an age gap [qm]. Pensioners for Curran, younger to middle aged people for Mason [qm].

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, there's to be a City Council by-election in Baillieston as Mason is quitting his council seat.

[afleitch]

Reports were, during the campaign, that it was Easterhouse which swung very strongly from Labour to the SNP. But that doesn't make it the case, of course.

I heard that too and take it as true until I hear any different.

Interesting; would I be wrong in assuming that that might point to an age gap [qm]. Pensioners for Curran, younger to middle aged people for Mason [qm].

I'm not sure about an clear age gap. More of a 'geographical' gap. Mount Vernon, Garrowhill and Baillieston simply empty during the day (as train journeys in that direction justify!) They are a bit more out of the way transport wise than they appear. They get up earlier than the rest of Glasgow and come home later. I just don't think people here had voted yet. It was very warn that evening and that probably drove up turnout for people on the way home.

What Mason has done in his 9 years as councillor is developed a very effective base. He had the largest personal vote anywhere in Glasgow in the 2007 locals. While Curran was the best candidate Labour could have stood, her base overlapped Mason's. Her message (which was on how great an MSP she is) based on reputation did not perhaps carry beyond Ballieston which is why she piled into Shettleston and Carntyne last week.

Mr Mason an active Baptist, was pretty involved with community/religious work in Easterhouse which was his 'non-political' base. I suspect they came through for him.

[Verily]

Yeah, it's the both-candidates-bases-in-Baillieston thing that made me wonder. Of course if the original Labour candidate (a Shettleston cllr. IIRC) hadn't dropped out it'd be more obvious who did well where.

What I can tell you is that Labour were comfortably ahead until after 5pm. For once it did not benefit from the post rush-hour vote. In fact it was quite the opposite.

Interesting; would I be wrong in assuming that that might point to an age gap [qm]. Pensioners for Curran, younger to middle aged people for Mason [qm].

I wouldn't be surprised, the younger voters being less set in the way of voting Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not sure about an clear age gap.

I tend to be a little sceptical about that sort of thing as well, but thought it was worth throwing around anyway

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Funny you should mention that; been looking at some census stuff and '03 election results for the old single member wards in the area. Anyway, 'twas interesting to see that Garrowhill had more people with degree's than the U.K average, less people with no qualifications than the U.K average, less people on benefits than the U.K average, lower levels of economic inactivity than the U.K average and less people in the worst sort of jobs than the U.K average. Of course Garrowhill ex-ward certainly isn't typical of the whole constituency, but that's not the point.

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One of the councillors in Maes-G (UA as well as City) is an independent who used to (and perhaps still does) run some form of community service thingy on the estate. Nearly lost her UA seat this year, which was a surprise, but topped the poll in the City elections (which might not say all that much; the other three candidates were two Labour, one BNP. Happily almost everyone who voted seems to have gone two Labour and one Indy. Hopefully that's the last we'll see of the BNP up here). The other UA councillor (no longer a City Councillor though; seems to have retired a while ago. Hard to keep track of community level elections here, which is extremely irritating to say the least as its often the level of government that ordinary people identify with the most... even if it's largely powerless) is a classic champion-of-the-estate Labour type.

But that's enough about Bangor in a Glasgow thread

[Rural Radical]

Do you think Curran will be the Labour candidate at the GE?

I thought she was a good candidate, Better than Dunwoody Junior in Crewe anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Better than Dunwoody Junior in Crewe anyway.

Dunwoody jr was a better candidate than people have assumed post-election. It's just that the sort of campaign Labour ran really, really didn't suit her. Interestingly, that level of central control over by-elections is a legacy of the worst of all Glasgow by-election debacles; Govan 1988.

[Rural Radical]

Better than Dunwoody Junior in Crewe anyway.

Dunwoody jr was a better candidate than people have assumed post-election. It's just that the sort of campaign Labour ran really, really didn't suit her. Interestingly, that level of central control over by-elections is a legacy of the worst of all Glasgow by-election debacles; Govan 1988.

The campaign in C&W was shocking too say the least.

What happened to Fraser Kemp running our by elections?

I would have thought that somebody like Peter Bradley (Ex Wrekin MP) would have been a better fit, with more appeal to the Nantwich and rural areas.

[minionofmidas]

Yes. Glasgow had crazy seats back then. Glasgow Central was the first to declare in 1979 and had about 2 voters or something.

Thought it was more like three

11,000 votes cast, on a 60% turnout. 3 times that by 1983.

The 1983 seat was a different Central.

Well yeah, that's sort of obvious. I didn't think 36,000 additional people settled in the area in those four years.

[Ben.]

Interesting; would I be wrong in assuming that that might point to an age gap [qm]. Pensioners for Curran, younger to middle aged people for Mason [qm].

Voters with a strong sense of Party-ID backing Labour, while younger voters who could be more pragmatic and dealigned might also have been more prepared to switch to the SNP?