Northern Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

Could IRV resurrect the UUP?

It couldn't hurt. But that said, they still couldn't be sure of a seat. Their best shots would be Antrim South and probably Upper Bann. But they'd be strongly dependent on winning a much better share of nationalist and Alliance transfers than the DUP - something I doubt they would have done this time around given their recent behaviour (that said, had the voting system been IRV this time, one presumes they'd have had the cop on to know that they would need to act in a way more condusive to nationalist and Alliance sensibilities in the first place).

Most NI seats would presumably be unchanged under IRV, though apart from those already mentioned, Belfast would probably become the home of the main battleground seats.

At any rate, presuming that there won't be a Westminster election any time soon, any change to that voting system won't make any difference in the short-medium term. Stormont is where it's at anyway (well at least in the absence of a Westminster government dependent on NI votes) - and in that regard the party remains a credible factor. But for all the possible gains next year (Strangford; Antrim S; Tyrone W; maybe Lagan Valley), there are at least as many potential losses (Belfast N; Down S; Upper Bann; maybe Antrim East and North and Belfast East). There is little prospect of ousting the DUP, but they can remain a significant player in the Executive.

The unionist focus though is almost certainly going to be about trying to prevent McGuinness becoming FM (even though its entirely symbolic - FM and dFM are really of equal standing in terms of power) and that will mean the biggest decision facing both the UUP and DUP is how much they have to work together (could be anywhere from some sort of technical arrangement to full unity - re-emergence of a UUUC type deal is quite possible). Depends on the new leader and what direction they want to go - move closer to the DUP or move closer to moderation and so fight back against the increasingly strong Alliance; whether to stick with the Tory link or not. We'll have to wait and see.

[Јas]

Following continued comment and proposals for the unification of unionism since the election (including from the head of the Orange Order as well as various politicos), Declan O'Loan (MLA for North Antrim) has today had the SDLP whip removed from him following the inclusion of the below statement in a press release yesterday.

I believe that a major realignment of northern nationalism is now called for and I think that this means the formation of a new single nationalist party.

Following orders from on high, the statement was retracted a few hours later.


New Composition of the Assembly

Democratic Unionist	35
Sinn Féin	27
Ulster Unionist	17
SDLP	15	(-1)
Alliance	7
Independent (Nationalist)	2	(+1)
Progressive Unionist	1
Green	1
Independent (Unionist)	1
Independent (Other)	1
Presiding Officer	1

[Vasall des Midas]

I believe that a major realignment of northern nationalism is now called for and I think that this means the formation of a new single nationalist party.

It already exists; and Mr O'Loan is free to join it.

[Јas]

Dawn Purvis has resigned as leader and member of the Progressive Unionist Party.

Her resignation comes following the murder of Bobby Moffett by the UVF (ceasefire, what ceasefire?) last week. Purvis informed the leadership of the UVF of her decision yesterday and appears to have received the blessing of former PUP leader David Ervine's widow, Jeanette.

I can no longer offer leadership to a political party which is expected to answer for the indefensible actions of others.

- Belfast Telegraph


New Composition of the Assembly

Democratic Unionist	35
Sinn Féin	27
Ulster Unionist	17
SDLP	15
Alliance	7
Independent (Nationalist)	2
Independent (Unionist)	2	(+1)
Green	1
Independent (Other)	1
Presiding Officer	1
Progressive Unionist	0	(-1)

[Јas]

The 5,000 page Saville Inquiry report into the events of Bloody Sunday has been published this afternoon.

The report completely overturns the findings of the 1974 Widgery Inquiry, and finds that the actions of the British Army were unjustified and unjustifiable. The report appears to have been very well received in Derry.

Mr Speaker, I am deeply patriotic. I never want to believe anything bad about our country. I never want to call into question the behaviour of our soldiers and our Army who I believe to be the finest in the world. And I have seen for myself the very difficult and dangerous circumstances in which we ask our soldiers to serve.

But the conclusions of this report are absolutely clear. There is no doubt. There is nothing equivocal. There are no ambiguities.

What happened on Bloody Sunday was both unjustified and unjustifiable.

It was wrong.

Lord Saville concludes that the soldiers of Support Company who went into the Bogside “did so as a result of an order…which should have not been given” by their Commander…
that on balance the first shot in the vicinity of the march was fired by the British Army…
that “none of the casualties shot by soldiers of Support Company was armed with a firearm”…
that “there was some firing by republican paramilitaries…but….none of this firing provided any justification for the shooting of civilian casualties”…
and that “in no case was any warning given before soldiers opened fire”.

He also finds that Support Company “reacted by losing their self-control…forgetting or ignoring their instructions and training” with “a serious and widespread loss of fire discipline”. He finds that “despite the contrary evidence given by the soldiers…none of them fired in response to attacks or threatened attacks by nail or petrol bombers”…
…and that many of the soldiers “knowingly put forward false accounts in order to seek to justify their firing”.

What’s more – Lord Saville says that some of those killed or injured were clearly fleeing or going to the assistance of others who were dying. The Report refers to one person who was shot while “crawling…away from the soldiers”…
…another was shot, in all probability, “when he was lying mortally wounded on the ground”…
…and a father was “hit and injured by Army gunfire after he had gone to…tend his son”.

….

It is clear from the Tribunal’s authoritative conclusions that the events of Bloody Sunday were in no way justified.

I know some people wonder whether nearly forty years on from an event, a Prime Minister needs to issue an apology. For someone of my generation, this is a period we feel we have learned about rather than lived through. But what happened should never, ever have happened.

The families of those who died should not have had to live with the pain and hurt of that day – and a lifetime of loss. Some members of our Armed Forces acted wrongly. The Government is ultimately responsible for the conduct of the Armed Forces.

And for that, on behalf of the Government – and indeed our country – I am deeply sorry.

[Јas]

The period of nominations for UUP leader has ended with two candidates in the fray to take over from Reg Empey.

Tom Elliot MLA (Fermanagh-South Tyrone) is the establishment candidate. While ruling out uniting with the DUP, he's certainly seen as favouring closer links. His avowed priority is disassembling that part of the St Andrew's Agreement that gives the party that wins the most seats in the Assembly, the right to nominate the First Minister. Elliot also has moral objections to attending such things as gaelic football games and gay pride parades.

Basil McCrea MLA (Lagan Valley) is the liberal candidate - indeed, not even a member of the Orange Order. In favour of greater differentiation from the DUP, he believes “traditional unionism” has failed the UUP.

No prizes for guessing who gets the precious Jas endorsement. It's probably not a coincidence that the other candidate is the favourite.

The decision will be made at a party meeting on 22 September.


We also have details on how much each of the parties spent in the General Election in May.
No surprise which party spent most (or from where that money came).

	MPs	Spent
UCUNF	0	£126,500
Sinn Féin	5	£64,000
DUP	8	£60,000
SDLP	3	£52,000
Alliance	1	£24,000
TUV	0	£11,000

   

[doktorb]

To spend so much and get so little is utter folly

[Sibboleth]

LOL

[Vasall des Midas]

Elliot also has moral objections to attending such things as gaelic football games and gay pride parades.

Gaelic football games are dens of vice. Can't figure out the other objection... does he think there might be Catholic priests in attendance?

[Јas]

The period of nominations for UUP leader has ended with two candidates in the fray to take over from Reg Empey.

Tom Elliot MLA (Fermanagh-South Tyrone) is the establishment candidate. While ruling out uniting with the DUP, he's certainly seen as favouring closer links. His avowed priority is disassembling that part of the St Andrew's Agreement that gives the party that wins the most seats in the Assembly, the right to nominate the First Minister. Elliot also has moral objections to attending such things as gaelic football games and gay pride parades.

Basil McCrea MLA (Lagan Valley) is the liberal candidate - indeed, not even a member of the Orange Order. In favour of greater differentiation from the DUP, he believes “traditional unionism” has failed the UUP.

No prizes for guessing who gets the precious Jas endorsement. It's probably not a coincidence that the other candidate is the favourite.

The decision will be made at a party meeting on 22 September.

So it’s the result of that party leadership contest you’ve all been waiting for this week…

Tom Elliott won the UUP leadership contest last night in a landslide. He took 69% of the vote against the liberal/moderniser candidate, Basil McCrea.

In addition to boilerplate party unity calls, etc. etc., Elliott underlined that the party's link-up with the Tories will be no more and that there will be no electoral pact with the DUP.

- Belfast Telegraph
- Irish Times

[Sibboleth]

So, yeah. What's left of the PUP has decided to commit suicide. Probably. In practice.

[Vasall des Midas]

A little less cryptic maybe?

[Јas]

A little less cryptic maybe?

The party has voted to maintain it's links with the UVF.
- BBC

After much debate and open conversation the membership decided to maintain the link with these organisations (UVF and Red Hand Commando).

The Progressive Unionist Party is founded upon the core principles of social justice and conflict transformation. It has provided a vehicle for loyalists to actively participate in the political process.

If our communities are to consolidate the peace process we cannot ignore our obligation to those who continue to be underrepresented.

[Χahar]

That's a pretty impressive work of doublethink.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Well the UVF has now decommissioned so I hardly see this as any worse than Sinn Fein today.

[patrick1]

Well the UVF has now decommissioned so I hardly see this as any worse than Sinn Fein today.

While I sorta agree- The problem is the much of the leadership and membership from the Loyalist paramilitaries has turned to drug dealing and outright gangsterism. Of course, the republican movement has some members who have gone down same path.  However, the PUP supporting these types isnt electorally popular.  All this is inconsequential anyway as he party died with Ervine. 

[Sibboleth]

Or with Purvis leaving over this issue. Either way...

[Јas]

While I'm dusting things down...

Ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections, the UUP and SDLP are set to vote against the Executive's proposed budget. Officially, the UUP will vote against because not enough funding is being given to the Health Department (under their control); and the SDLP because of public sector job losses and pay freeze.

Sharp exchanges mark Assembly budget debate - BBC

[Јas]

The murder of a Catholic member of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) on Saturday by a car-bomb in Omagh is another unfortunate reminder of the residual force dissident republicans maintain. Thankfully public and official sentiment appears to be at one in strong condemnation of the action. (The upcoming elections will show again quite clearly that these groups have no significant public support.)

Violent republicanism is in a new phase now, with the continuing 'normalisation' process in NI. The PSNI is now around 30% Catholic. It seems there is now a specific tactic by dissidents to target Catholic policemen - on why this may be so.

[patrick1]

The murder of a Catholic member of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) on Saturday by a car-bomb in Omagh is another unfortunate reminder of the residual force dissident republicans maintain. Thankfully public and official sentiment appears to be at one in strong condemnation of the action. (The upcoming elections will show again quite clearly that these groups have no significant public support.)

Violent republicanism is in a new phase now, with the continuing 'normalisation' process in NI. The PSNI is now around 30% Catholic. It seems there is now a specific tactic by dissidents to target Catholic policemen - on why this may be so.

http://www.humanrights.ie/index.php/2011/04/03/why-the-dissidents-kill/

It will be interesting whether the recruitment drive will continue now that the 50/50 rule has been dropped.

[Јas]

Pat Finucane murder: a scary admission by the state -- Michael White, Guardian

Hearing 'state collusion in murder' acknowledged from the dispatch box is a sobering experience. The fact that it is rare only serves to make it more so.

The murder of Mr Finucane, a Belfast solicitor, in front of his family on 12 February 1989 was a terrible crime. There have been long-standing allegations of security force collusion in his murder. The former Metropolitan Police Commissioner Lord Stevens was asked to investigate the murder in 1999. He published his overview report in 2003, concluding that there was “collusion”, that the murder “could have been prevented” and that the original investigation of the murder “should have resulted in the early arrest and detection of his killers.”

When he was asked by the previous Government to consider the question of a public inquiry, Judge Cory found in 2004 “strong evidence that collusive acts were committed by the Army…the RUC…and the Security Service.”

My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister invited the family to Downing street yesterday so that he could apologise to them in person and on behalf of the Government for state collusion in the murder of Patrick Finucane.

The Government accept the clear conclusions of Lord Stevens and Judge Cory that there was collusion. I want to reiterate the Government’s apology in the House today. The Government are deeply sorry for what happened.

Despite the clear conclusions of previous investigations and reports, there is still only limited information in the public domain. That is why my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister and I have committed to establishing a further process to ensure that the truth is revealed. Accepting collusion is not sufficient in itself. The public now need to know the extent and nature of that collusion. I have, therefore, asked the distinguished former United Nations war crimes prosecutor Sir Desmond de Silva QC to conduct an independent review to produce a full public account of any state involvement in the murder.

- Hansard

[Јas]

As part of a move to end double-jobbing, Martin McGuinness has resigned as MP for Mid-Ulster and the other 4 Sinn Féin MPs (Pat Doherty, Paul Maskey, Michelle Gildernew and Conor Murphy ) have resigned as MLAs from their various constituencies.

New MLAs will be co-opted by SF shortly.
McGuinness's resignation will trigger a by-election in Mid-Ulster (though I've no idea when) - which will almost certainly be won by whoever SF nominate (so a de facto co-option there as well, I suppose).

- BBC

[Peter the Lefty]

I just have a discussion about NI politics that I thought I'd put here: Why is it that there are no left-wing Unionist and right-wing republican parties in NI?  Surely there must be at least some left-wing unionists and right-wingers who support a United Ireland?  Or are the communities that polarized that they both are also purely on opposite ends of the political spectrum?  (with only one centrist party that combines both of them in the middle)

[crypto-fascist superhero]

I just have a discussion about NI politics that I thought I'd put here: Why is it that there are no left-wing Unionist and right-wing republican parties in NI?  Surely there must be at least some left-wing unionists and right-wingers who support a United Ireland?  Or are the communities that polarized that they both are also purely on opposite ends of the political spectrum?  (with only one centrist party that combines both of them in the middle)

The Alliance Party is in fact really the "left-wing unionist" party you're looking for - it receives few votes from Catholics.  Political cleavages based on ethnicity rather than ideology are commoner than you might think - similar stark divides occur in places like Malaysia or South Africa, and to a much lesser extent even the US.  The present ideological divide in NI is partially because Catholics are historically underprivileged and partially a relic of the old Home Rule controversy.  "Left-wing" Unionists vote DUP (the more "working class" Unionist party) or Alliance, "right-wing" nationalists vote SDLP or occasionally cross sectarian lines (Enoch Powell was elected for the UUP in what's today a safe Sinn Fein seat - NI is the only place on earth where electing Enoch Powell in a landslide is a sign of moderation!).

[Sibboleth]

Enoch Powell's old constituency (South Down) is now a safe SDLP constituency, he did not receive a significant crossover vote from Catholics, and he was absolutely not any kind of moderate.