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Author Topic: Northern Ireland General Discussion  (Read 49091 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #175 on: February 12, 2016, 05:19:01 PM »

For: Sinn Fein, Alliance (minus one abstention), Green, N121

Against: SDLP (minus one abstention), DUP, TUV, UKIP, UUP (minus three "For")
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Frodo
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« Reply #176 on: April 28, 2021, 07:40:28 PM »

Interesting -Arlene Foster is gone:

Northern Ireland leader quits after party revolt over Brexit impact
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Hnv1
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« Reply #177 on: April 29, 2021, 02:07:04 AM »

Projected successor
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Zinneke
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« Reply #178 on: April 29, 2021, 03:35:01 AM »

Foster was a useful placeholder. Getting rid of her gives SF the right to re-negotiate with DUP again in exchange for voting in their insane religious nutjob for First Minister. Or SF call an election.

She should have obviously gone during RHI but the celebrations should be put on hold. Remember she was considered too soft on gay rights and that she could at least be reasoned with. Any new DUP leader will be put up against Jim Allister as to who represents hardline Unionism. That can't be good.

Its a shame Peter Robinson's wife had to shag a teenager.
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YL
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« Reply #179 on: April 29, 2021, 05:49:21 AM »

There's been some discussion of this in the main UK thread, perhaps because it had been forgotten that this thread existed.

The front-runner appears to be Lagan Valley MLA and Young Earth creationist Edwin Poots.  Also near the top of the list are Jeffrey Donaldson, MP for Lagan Valley who was once in the UUP, and Gavin Robinson, MP for Belfast East (nb no relation of Peter and Iris).  Poots is perceived as more hardline, Robinson as more moderate.

An MP would either have to resign their Westminster seat or nominate someone else to serve as First Minister, as the First Minister would have to be in the Assembly and double jobbing is banned.  The electorate is just the MPs, MLAs, and I think also their members of the House of Lords; unless there's a sudden rule change this is not a mass membership vote.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #180 on: April 29, 2021, 09:01:24 AM »

There's been some discussion of this in the main UK thread, perhaps because it had been forgotten that this thread existed.

The front-runner appears to be Lagan Valley MLA and Young Earth creationist Edwin Poots.  Also near the top of the list are Jeffrey Donaldson, MP for Lagan Valley who was once in the UUP, and Gavin Robinson, MP for Belfast East (nb no relation of Peter and Iris).  Poots is perceived as more hardline, Robinson as more moderate.

An MP would either have to resign their Westminster seat or nominate someone else to serve as First Minister, as the First Minister would have to be in the Assembly and double jobbing is banned.  The electorate is just the MPs, MLAs, and I think also their members of the House of Lords; unless there's a sudden rule change this is not a mass membership vote.

Given the machinations and the ideological lines, would it be right to think Poots is the frontrunner, then?

I imagine he wouldn't be popular beyond the confines of the DUP base, given his brand of social conservatism (saying Arlene Foster needs to focus on being a wife?).
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #181 on: April 29, 2021, 09:33:25 AM »

Especially given what has happened with Foster, will Donaldson being ex-UUP help or hinder him?
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palandio
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« Reply #182 on: April 29, 2021, 10:16:48 AM »

Dumb question:

According to statistics about half of Northern Irish Protestants are Presbyterians, most of them Presbyterian Church in Ireland. The other half is mostly Church of Ireland (i.e. Anglican), with a minority of Methodists and some other small groups. Only a tiny fraction belongs to the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster (i.e. Ian Paisley's fundamentalist splinter church).
Then how would a majority of Northern Irish Protestants vote for Paisley's DUP on a regular basis, a party that puts FPCU ideology front and center? I get why a vote for the DUP may occur at some election, but wouldn't a party emerge that combines Protestant "ethnic" identity politics with a slightly more mainstream outlook on religion and social issues? It seems strange that the PUP or maybe a more moderate version of it is completely unviable.
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YL
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« Reply #183 on: April 29, 2021, 12:07:03 PM »

Dumb question:

According to statistics about half of Northern Irish Protestants are Presbyterians, most of them Presbyterian Church in Ireland. The other half is mostly Church of Ireland (i.e. Anglican), with a minority of Methodists and some other small groups. Only a tiny fraction belongs to the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster (i.e. Ian Paisley's fundamentalist splinter church).
Then how would a majority of Northern Irish Protestants vote for Paisley's DUP on a regular basis, a party that puts FPCU ideology front and center? I get why a vote for the DUP may occur at some election, but wouldn't a party emerge that combines Protestant "ethnic" identity politics with a slightly more mainstream outlook on religion and social issues? It seems strange that the PUP or maybe a more moderate version of it is completely unviable.

In the period after the Good Friday Agreement the DUP absorbed a considerable element of the more hardline wing of the UUP, so they became broader based than they had been; indeed Foster herself is an ex-UUP Anglican from County Fermanagh.  So in practice the DUP is a Protestant identity party.

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #184 on: April 29, 2021, 12:37:13 PM »

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

A majority of DUP members are also members of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #185 on: April 29, 2021, 12:40:01 PM »

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

A majority of DUP members are also members of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster.

So the voter base is significantly different demographically from the membership?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #186 on: April 29, 2021, 12:50:50 PM »

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

A majority of DUP members are also members of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster.

So the voter base is significantly different demographically from the membership?

Massively. The membership is also tiny. A lot of them are also estate agents, would you believe.
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YL
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« Reply #187 on: April 29, 2021, 01:14:53 PM »

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

A majority of DUP members are also members of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster.

What proportion of the church members are members of the party?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #188 on: April 29, 2021, 01:22:03 PM »

What proportion of the church members are members of the party?

At least a tenth, maybe as much as a quarter.
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YL
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« Reply #189 on: April 29, 2021, 01:51:45 PM »

Poots has confirmed he's standing.
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YL
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« Reply #190 on: April 30, 2021, 05:56:43 AM »

It appears Foster is going to both stand down from the Assembly and leave the DUP after quitting as leader.  (BBC story.)  "No longer the party she joined", apparently.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #191 on: April 30, 2021, 07:50:28 AM »

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

A majority of DUP members are also members of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster.

So the voter base is significantly different demographically from the membership?

Massively. The membership is also tiny. A lot of them are also estate agents, would you believe.

I mean, it's an Irish political party so that is very believable.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #192 on: April 30, 2021, 09:29:53 AM »

It appears Foster is going to both stand down from the Assembly and leave the DUP after quitting as leader.  (BBC story.)  "No longer the party she joined", apparently.

If she means the DUP has become *more* backward and bigoted, that's a bit sobering.
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YL
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« Reply #193 on: April 30, 2021, 10:21:53 AM »

It appears Foster is going to both stand down from the Assembly and leave the DUP after quitting as leader.  (BBC story.)  "No longer the party she joined", apparently.

If she means the DUP has become *more* backward and bigoted, that's a bit sobering.

It's probably basically a strop, but given who the favourite to take over is...
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #194 on: April 30, 2021, 04:10:33 PM »

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

A majority of DUP members are also members of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster.

So the voter base is significantly different demographically from the membership?

Massively. The membership is also tiny. A lot of them are also estate agents, would you believe.

It's so tiny that in some constituencies there are actually fewer members than there are DUP councillors.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #195 on: May 01, 2021, 06:37:54 AM »

Ah, the "sorry no more members, we're full up" approach that some Labour old-timers will recall.
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YL
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« Reply #196 on: May 03, 2021, 12:06:21 PM »

Jeffrey Donaldson MP enters the DUP leadership contest.

As the article says, though, Poots's campaign claim he already has the votes to win.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #197 on: May 03, 2021, 02:53:03 PM »

Would Poots be acceptable as First Minister? I doubt it, as I see his camp is apparently suggesting splitting the role in two.
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Frodo
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« Reply #198 on: May 16, 2021, 05:27:01 PM »

Northern Ireland's DUP Elects Hardliner Poots as New Leader
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Frodo
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« Reply #199 on: May 16, 2021, 06:20:06 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2021, 06:31:42 PM by America Needs Kali »

Next May (or earlier, as the case may be), there will be elections held to the unicameral Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

I know it is a year out, but how is it looking?  
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