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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #200 on: May 17, 2021, 05:21:17 AM »

Jeffrey Donaldson MP enters the DUP leadership contest.

As the article says, though, Poots's campaign claim he already has the votes to win.

In the event, it was close. Poots has his work cut out in several ways.
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YL
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« Reply #201 on: May 17, 2021, 08:58:17 AM »

Next May (or earlier, as the case may be), there will be elections held to the unicameral Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

I know it is a year out, but how is it looking?  

At the moment I'd guess that Alliance will make gains at the expense of Unionists, and that Sinn Féin could well be the largest party.  The DUP's choice of leader might give the UUP an opportunity to recover some lost ground amongst more moderate (and less fundamentalist) Protestants, but I'm not sure they're in a state to take it.

A LucidTalk poll in January actually had Alliance on 18% and challenging the DUP (19%) for second place overall (with Sinn Féin ahead on 24%).  It also had the TUV (the ones who think the DUP is too moderate) on 10%, not far behind the UUP (12%) and SDLP (13%).  But polling in Northern Ireland is not easy.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #202 on: May 17, 2021, 09:39:41 AM »

Will this hurt the TUV?
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #203 on: May 17, 2021, 10:06:00 AM »

Next May (or earlier, as the case may be), there will be elections held to the unicameral Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

I know it is a year out, but how is it looking?  

At the moment I'd guess that Alliance will make gains at the expense of Unionists, and that Sinn Féin could well be the largest party.  The DUP's choice of leader might give the UUP an opportunity to recover some lost ground amongst more moderate (and less fundamentalist) Protestants, but I'm not sure they're in a state to take it.

A LucidTalk poll in January actually had Alliance on 18% and challenging the DUP (19%) for second place overall (with Sinn Féin ahead on 24%).  It also had the TUV (the ones who think the DUP is too moderate) on 10%, not far behind the UUP (12%) and SDLP (13%).  But polling in Northern Ireland is not easy.

What would happen if Alliance were to win the most votes in next year's elections? I guess it's not that improbable is the distribution is 24 SF, 19 DUP and 18 Alliance.

How would that effect the power sharing agreement? would it throw a wrench into the already difficult process of forming a government?
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YL
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« Reply #204 on: May 17, 2021, 10:38:42 AM »

Next May (or earlier, as the case may be), there will be elections held to the unicameral Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

I know it is a year out, but how is it looking?  

At the moment I'd guess that Alliance will make gains at the expense of Unionists, and that Sinn Féin could well be the largest party.  The DUP's choice of leader might give the UUP an opportunity to recover some lost ground amongst more moderate (and less fundamentalist) Protestants, but I'm not sure they're in a state to take it.

A LucidTalk poll in January actually had Alliance on 18% and challenging the DUP (19%) for second place overall (with Sinn Féin ahead on 24%).  It also had the TUV (the ones who think the DUP is too moderate) on 10%, not far behind the UUP (12%) and SDLP (13%).  But polling in Northern Ireland is not easy.

What would happen if Alliance were to win the most votes in next year's elections? I guess it's not that improbable is the distribution is 24 SF, 19 DUP and 18 Alliance.

How would that effect the power sharing agreement? would it throw a wrench into the already difficult process of forming a government?

If Alliance were to be the largest party, then that complicates things, because they'd get to appoint the First Minister.  (The legislation is quite confusing, but I think that's right.)  Then the Deputy First Minister would be appointed by the largest party of the largest designation, which might well mean Sinn Féin (if Alliance's gains were mostly from Unionism, meaning that there were more Nationalists than Unionists overall).  I'm not sure Unionists would stand being frozen out of those two posts altogether.


"This" as in Poots winning the DUP leadership?  You'd think so, as he would be more in tune with the sort of voter who might defect in that direction than Foster is.
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AelroseB
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« Reply #205 on: May 17, 2021, 12:48:42 PM »


In the period after the Good Friday Agreement the DUP absorbed a considerable element of the more hardline wing of the UUP, so they became broader based than they had been; indeed Foster herself is an ex-UUP Anglican from County Fermanagh.  So in practice the DUP is a Protestant identity party.

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

Ironically, the antecedent of the modern DUP got its feet wet in Terence O'Neill's old Stormont constituency, Bannside, which Paisley won after 1969.  Around then it was a mix of new middle class and partially rural working class, but mostly all Protestant.  Just by Paisley's vote share there in 1969 and after, he drew across class lines, which speaks to the malleable cultural/identarian appeal of the DUP--their most successful (and most depressing, imo) campaign tool ever since.  So, for now, I won't underestimate Poots, especially if he does leave the FM job to another.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #206 on: May 17, 2021, 01:19:48 PM »

Next May (or earlier, as the case may be), there will be elections held to the unicameral Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

I know it is a year out, but how is it looking?  

At the moment I'd guess that Alliance will make gains at the expense of Unionists, and that Sinn Féin could well be the largest party.  The DUP's choice of leader might give the UUP an opportunity to recover some lost ground amongst more moderate (and less fundamentalist) Protestants, but I'm not sure they're in a state to take it.

A LucidTalk poll in January actually had Alliance on 18% and challenging the DUP (19%) for second place overall (with Sinn Féin ahead on 24%).  It also had the TUV (the ones who think the DUP is too moderate) on 10%, not far behind the UUP (12%) and SDLP (13%).  But polling in Northern Ireland is not easy.

What would happen if Alliance were to win the most votes in next year's elections? I guess it's not that improbable is the distribution is 24 SF, 19 DUP and 18 Alliance.

How would that effect the power sharing agreement? would it throw a wrench into the already difficult process of forming a government?

If Alliance were to be the largest party, then that complicates things, because they'd get to appoint the First Minister.  (The legislation is quite confusing, but I think that's right.)  Then the Deputy First Minister would be appointed by the largest party of the largest designation, which might well mean Sinn Féin (if Alliance's gains were mostly from Unionism, meaning that there were more Nationalists than Unionists overall).  I'm not sure Unionists would stand being frozen out of those two posts altogether.


"This" as in Poots winning the DUP leadership?  You'd think so, as he would be more in tune with the sort of voter who might defect in that direction than Foster is.
Are alliance de facto unionists though? Also how to uk labour supporters in Northern Ireland who are unionist vote?
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YL
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« Reply #207 on: May 17, 2021, 01:44:27 PM »

Are alliance de facto unionists though? Also how to uk labour supporters in Northern Ireland who are unionist vote?

Alliance are not Unionists with a big U, and do not designate as such in the Assembly.  (They're "Other", together with the Greens and People Before Profit.)  There is a range of views on the constitutional issue within the party, though it's usually been the case, and probably still is, that their supporters would mostly vote for the status quo.

(For those who don't already know this, all MLAs have to "designate" as either "Unionist", "Nationalist", or "Other".  The rules for choosing which party gets to nominate the First Minister and Deputy First Minister refer to the collective strengths of these designations as well as to the parties.)

As for the second question, left-right politics isn't really a thing in Northern Ireland so it's hard to tell.  There have been left of centre Unionist (big U) politicians, including some, like former North Down MP Robert McCartney, who were quite hardline.  (He applied for the Labour whip after being elected in 1995.)  His UUP successor Sylvia Hermon left the party rather than join the alliance with the Tories in 2010.  I'd guess that the more strongly left of centre Protestant voters tend towards Alliance, though.  (Or the Greens.)
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #208 on: May 19, 2021, 07:19:23 AM »

Are alliance de facto unionists though? Also how to uk labour supporters in Northern Ireland who are unionist vote?

Alliance are not Unionists with a big U, and do not designate as such in the Assembly.  (They're "Other", together with the Greens and People Before Profit.)  There is a range of views on the constitutional issue within the party, though it's usually been the case, and probably still is, that their supporters would mostly vote for the status quo.

(For those who don't already know this, all MLAs have to "designate" as either "Unionist", "Nationalist", or "Other".  The rules for choosing which party gets to nominate the First Minister and Deputy First Minister refer to the collective strengths of these designations as well as to the parties.)

As for the second question, left-right politics isn't really a thing in Northern Ireland so it's hard to tell.  There have been left of centre Unionist (big U) politicians, including some, like former North Down MP Robert McCartney, who were quite hardline.  (He applied for the Labour whip after being elected in 1995.)  His UUP successor Sylvia Hermon left the party rather than join the alliance with the Tories in 2010.  I'd guess that the more strongly left of centre Protestant voters tend towards Alliance, though.  (Or the Greens.)
if the labour party in the uk started to contest the in northern ireland would that be electly viable?
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YL
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« Reply #209 on: May 19, 2021, 08:16:03 AM »

Are alliance de facto unionists though? Also how to uk labour supporters in Northern Ireland who are unionist vote?

Alliance are not Unionists with a big U, and do not designate as such in the Assembly.  (They're "Other", together with the Greens and People Before Profit.)  There is a range of views on the constitutional issue within the party, though it's usually been the case, and probably still is, that their supporters would mostly vote for the status quo.

(For those who don't already know this, all MLAs have to "designate" as either "Unionist", "Nationalist", or "Other".  The rules for choosing which party gets to nominate the First Minister and Deputy First Minister refer to the collective strengths of these designations as well as to the parties.)

As for the second question, left-right politics isn't really a thing in Northern Ireland so it's hard to tell.  There have been left of centre Unionist (big U) politicians, including some, like former North Down MP Robert McCartney, who were quite hardline.  (He applied for the Labour whip after being elected in 1995.)  His UUP successor Sylvia Hermon left the party rather than join the alliance with the Tories in 2010.  I'd guess that the more strongly left of centre Protestant voters tend towards Alliance, though.  (Or the Greens.)
if the labour party in the uk started to contest the in northern ireland would that be electly viable?

I doubt it.  They might win the odd council seat -- IIRC some Labourish independents sometimes have -- but note that the NI Tories don't even have that at the moment.
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beesley
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« Reply #210 on: May 22, 2021, 03:50:37 AM »
« Edited: May 22, 2021, 09:08:57 AM by beesley »



Assembly elections are next year. The aggregated major unionist vote here is 41% compared to 37% for the Republicans, but last time a good chunk of SDLP and UUP voters put each other or Alliance as their second preference, partly at the urging of Mike Nesbitt.
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Cassius
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« Reply #211 on: May 22, 2021, 04:05:39 AM »



Assembly elections are next year. The aggregated major unionist vote is 41% compared to 37% for the nationalists, but last time a good chunk of SDLP and UUP voters put each other or Alliance as their second preference, partly at the urging of Mike Nesbitt.

Did they? My understanding was that ‘vote Mike get Colum’ went down like a bucket of cold sick amongst the UUP faithful (who still remain broadly conservative - when polled in a study of the party done in 2019 a majority were well disposed to Jim Allister of all people).
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beesley
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« Reply #212 on: May 22, 2021, 04:33:31 AM »



Assembly elections are next year. The aggregated major unionist vote is 41% compared to 37% for the nationalists, but last time a good chunk of SDLP and UUP voters put each other or Alliance as their second preference, partly at the urging of Mike Nesbitt.

Did they? My understanding was that ‘vote Mike get Colum’ went down like a bucket of cold sick amongst the UUP faithful (who still remain broadly conservative - when polled in a study of the party done in 2019 a majority were well disposed to Jim Allister of all people).

It went down badly among the base and nobody took it seriously but it did happen to a significant enough degree to make a difference - have a look at Lagan Valley for example where the SDLP gained the seat. 
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #213 on: May 22, 2021, 05:37:12 AM »


Assembly elections are next year. The aggregated major unionist vote is 41% compared to 37% for the nationalists, but last time a good chunk of SDLP and UUP voters put each other or Alliance as their second preference, partly at the urging of Mike Nesbitt.

Did they? My understanding was that ‘vote Mike get Colum’ went down like a bucket of cold sick amongst the UUP faithful (who still remain broadly conservative - when polled in a study of the party done in 2019 a majority were well disposed to Jim Allister of all people).

Yes, who are the UUP supporters nowadays?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #214 on: May 22, 2021, 05:43:12 AM »

That's an almost existentially bad poll for Poots.

WTF did the DUP grandees think they were doing picking him ahead of Donaldson?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #215 on: May 22, 2021, 06:00:00 AM »

Poots is already being compared to Jeremy Corbyn.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #216 on: May 22, 2021, 06:35:49 AM »

I will believe the mass rallies in his support when I see them Smiley
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #217 on: June 03, 2021, 02:33:12 PM »

That's an almost existentially bad poll for Poots.

WTF did the DUP grandees think they were doing picking him ahead of Donaldson?

Those DUP higher-ups really don't seem like sharp political minds.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #218 on: June 10, 2021, 04:07:00 AM »

Paul Givan has been nominated to be the new First Minister.

Quote
Lagan Valley assembly member Paul Givan has been announced as the DUP's nominee to be NI's new first minister.

Mr Givan would replace Arlene Foster, who was ousted as Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader in April after an internal revolt.

Edwin Poots, Stormont's agriculture minister, replaced her as DUP leader amid tensions within the party.

A number of DUP members have quit over concerns about the party's direction since Mr Poots' election last month.

Mr Givan had been widely tipped to replace Mrs Foster.

He was first co-opted to the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2010 and, aged 39, he will be Northern Ireland's youngest first minister.
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Estrella
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« Reply #219 on: June 15, 2021, 05:16:22 AM »

A Father Ted reference in Arlene Foster's farwell speech

This is what she's referring to btw:

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LabourJersey
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« Reply #220 on: June 15, 2021, 01:36:35 PM »

Paul Givan has been nominated to be the new First Minister.

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Lagan Valley assembly member Paul Givan has been announced as the DUP's nominee to be NI's new first minister.

Mr Givan would replace Arlene Foster, who was ousted as Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader in April after an internal revolt.

Edwin Poots, Stormont's agriculture minister, replaced her as DUP leader amid tensions within the party.

A number of DUP members have quit over concerns about the party's direction since Mr Poots' election last month.

Mr Givan had been widely tipped to replace Mrs Foster.

He was first co-opted to the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2010 and, aged 39, he will be Northern Ireland's youngest first minister.

Will Poots get promoted in the NI Cabinet for being party leader, or is that completely separate from the cabinet process (If I understand it correctly each party in the power sharing can pick their people for a specified number of cabinet posts, right?)
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Frodo
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« Reply #221 on: June 17, 2021, 10:12:08 PM »

Midnight breakthrough saves Northern Ireland power-sharing
Sinn Féin outmaneuvers unionists to cut Irish language rights deal directly with Britain.
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Frodo
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« Reply #222 on: June 17, 2021, 10:17:38 PM »

That was fast:

Leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP resigns after 3 weeks
Edwin Poots faced an overwhelming no-confidence vote among the party’s lawmakers.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #223 on: June 18, 2021, 04:36:53 AM »

Lasted a couple of days longer than Diane James did as UKIP leader.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #224 on: June 18, 2021, 05:23:30 AM »

Jim Allister made me spit my drink out when he called Sinn Fein "West Brits" for relying on the UK government to pass the Irish Language Act. It shows you that the state of Loyalism is like a real life version of an internet conspiracy rabbit hole. Let's hope they keep digging for Ireland's, and all our sanity's sake!
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