Probabilistic GOP Candidate Rankings

[politicaltipster]

Does anyone wanr to rank the GOP candidates by their likelihood of winning the nomination. My view is (as of December 9 2007):

Giuliani - 30%
McCain - 25%
Huckabee - 25%
Romney - 15%
Thompson - 5%

Detailed explanations can be found at http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/09/ranking-the-republican-candidates-2/

[Erc]

Huckabee: 45%
Giuliani: 25%
Romney: 20%
McCain: 7%
Thompson: 3%

[© tweed]

Romney 45
Huckabee 40
Giuliani 10
Others 5

[Padfoot]

As of Dec. 9th

Huckabee: 45%
Romney: 30%
Giuliani: 20%
McCain: 5%
Others: no chance

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Romney - 45%
Huckabee - 35%
Giuliani - 15%
McCain - 4%
Thompson - 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Romney - 45%
Huckabee - 35%
Giuliani - 15%
McCain - 4%
Thompson - 1%

Same, except I'd probably put Romney closer to 40% and Giuliani closer to 20%.  BRTD, Boss Tweed, and I seem to be virtually alone on this forum in thinking both that Romney is still the slight favorite for the nomination and that Giuliani is in far worse shape than the CW would have you believe (though I'm not *quite* as pessimistic about Giuliani as they are....then again, things are really fluid right now, so I might change my mind by next week).  Actually, the one other person who I think probably agrees with us is Inks.

[TheresNoMoney]

McCain has a better chance than Guiliani at this point.

Guiliani has the most baggage of any candidate.

[Verily]

As of Dec. 9th

Huckabee: 45%
Romney: 30%
Giuliani: 20%
McCain: 5%
Others: no chance

Agreed, more or less.

[auburntiger]

Romney - 45%
Huckabee - 35%
Giuliani - 15%
McCain - 4%
Thompson - 1%

Same, except I'd probably put Romney closer to 40% and Giuliani closer to 20%.  BRTD, Boss Tweed, and I seem to be virtually alone on this forum in thinking both that Romney is still the slight favorite for the nomination and that Giuliani is in far worse shape than the CW would have you believe (though I'm not *quite* as pessimistic about Giuliani as they are....then again, things are really fluid right now, so I might change my mind by next week).  Actually, the one other person who I think probably agrees with us is Inks.

I don't think we will nominate Romney. The more that polls show him weak in what are normally lean-to-solid red states, the more people will get the idea that he is unelectable. Trailing by a point in Texas isn't exactly winning material.

As for Giuliani and the northeast, the consensus seems to be that all of those states are out of reach for any Republican, no matter who we nominate. Therefore, we have to play defense in all close 2004 red states: OH, NM, IA, CO, NV, FL, MO, AR, VA, and probably WV. The only 2004 blue state up for grabs is WI.

Of those 11 mentioned, I think only Huck could potentially carry all 11. Of course, everything would have to go perfectly wrong for Hill or Obama.

[politicaltipster]

Bit surprised about the fact that Romney chances are rated in the 40s. If he can't win either the IA or NH primaries, surely he's dead?

I would also dispute the idea that the GOP can't carry any blue state in 2008. Surely McCain could swing NH, Oregon and have a good chance of winning PA, MI (and with Lieberman on the ticket) CT?

[Padfoot]

Bit surprised about the fact that Romney chances are rated in the 40s. If he can't win either the IA or NH primaries, surely he's dead?

I would also dispute the idea that the GOP can't carry any blue state in 2008. Surely McCain could swing NH, Oregon and have a good chance of winning PA, MI (and with Lieberman on the ticket) CT?

Every poll since August has shown Romney leading in NH so I'm not sure why you are assuming he can't win there.

[Verily]

I would also dispute the idea that the GOP can't carry any blue state in 2008. Surely McCain could swing NH, Oregon and have a good chance of winning PA, MI (and with Lieberman on the ticket) CT?

Because McCain has such a huge chance of winning the Republican nomination...

[Gustaf]

Huckabee: 35%
Guliani: 30%
Romney: 25%
McCain: 9%
Thompson: 1%

Or something like that...I'll note that Romney is lower on my list than on many others'. My reason for this is that I expect him to be weaker in the long run. If Guliani gets knocked out I'd expect Huckabee rather than Romney to carry through. If Huckabee fizzles I'd have Guliani as the favourite. And I actually think it's more likely to be a battle between Guliani and Huckabee with Romney getting left out. But it's very much in the air at this stage. All  of the top 3 have great assest and great liabilities, big enough to seemingly rule them out or seal their nomination.

[MarkWarner08]

All depends on Iowa. For now:

Romney- 40%
McCain - 25%
Huckabee - 20%
Giuliani - 15%

[politicaltipster]

I've produced some new rankings - see http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/ranking-the-republican-candidates-3/

Giuliani 30
McCain 30
Huckabee 20
Romney 15
Thompson 5