OH-05 results

[CavanaughPark]

IN-09, NH-02, CA-11, IN-07, GA-08, GA-12, SC-05, AZ-05 off the top of my head are seats Republicans can take. In most of those seats, they already have good  candidates running.

[Mr.Phips]

IN-09, NH-02, CA-11, IN-07, GA-08, GA-12, SC-05, AZ-05 off the top of my head are seats Republicans can take. In most of those seats, they already have good  candidates running.

SC-05?  They had their best candidate in years there in 2006 and only got 42% of the vote, even as governor Mark Sanford was winning in a landslide.  IN-07 is a seat that John Kerry won by like 20 points and Julia Carson is retiring.  GA-12 is nearly half black and John Kerry won it, there is also no top tier challenger.  NH-02 is a district that John Kerry carried by 10 points and there is no top tier challenger.  AZ-05, IN-09, and CA-11 could go if 2008 is a down year for Democrats. 

[Gravis Marketing]

My point was that Republicans will end up about where they are now.  No lower.  Because of retirements, they probably won't net much of anything.  Democrats won't net anything either this time around.  They already picked off the most vulnerable states in 06 during a Democratic year.  Very little low hanging fruit left on the tree.  Some left for sure, but not much.

The biggest difference between 2006 and 2008 will be the disparity in financial resources. The NRCC could outspend the DCCC is many districts in 2006. But this year, their fundraising "sucks," according to the House Minority Leader, and they blew 20% of their cash on hand to hold a R+10 seat that it turns out wasn't that close to begin with.

All else being equal, I'd agree the Republicans don't have a lot more left to lose in 2008, but we haven't seen an election with such a financial disadvantage for the Republicans in my lifetime. I remember seeing all sorts of freshman seats and contestable open seats taken off the table in 2000 and 2002 because the Democrats didn't have the resources to compete. We'll see how much money Republicans will be willing to drop on airtime in Philadelphia and New York while also trying to hold the line in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Columbus, Detroit, Albuquerque, and other less expensive media markets.

[Gravis Marketing]

IN-09, NH-02, CA-11, IN-07, GA-08, GA-12, SC-05, AZ-05 off the top of my head are seats Republicans can take. In most of those seats, they already have good  candidates running.

Which five districts there already have good candidates running? I'll grant CA-11 off the bat.

[Mr.Phips]

IN-09, NH-02, CA-11, IN-07, GA-08, GA-12, SC-05, AZ-05 off the top of my head are seats Republicans can take. In most of those seats, they already have good  candidates running.

Which five districts there already have good candidates running? I'll grant CA-11 off the bat.

They have Sodrel in IN-09, Goddard in GA-08.  There is a crowded field in AZ-05. 

[Gravis Marketing]

They have Sodrel in IN-09, Goddard in GA-08.  There is a crowded field in AZ-05. 

Thanks for IN-09 and GA-08; it still looks like a stretch to say anyone in the field in AZ-05 is a particularly good candidate, particularly against a relatively strong incumbent. The web may not have caught up with announcements by a true strong challenger.

[Nutmeg]

IN-09, NH-02, CA-11, IN-07, GA-08, GA-12, SC-05, AZ-05 off the top of my head are seats Republicans can take. In most of those seats, they already have good  candidates running.

Which five districts there already have good candidates running? I'll grant CA-11 off the bat.

They have Sodrel in IN-09, Goddard in GA-08.  There is a crowded field in AZ-05. 

In GA-08, Marshall also has military experience of his own, so Goddard's only strength is somewhat dampened there.  Mac Collins was the strongest possible challenger Marshall could have gotten.  It being a presidential year is the only other factor working in Goddard's favor.  This will be the first presidential year in which this district will have existed; in 2004, Marshall won with some 63% of the vote even as Bush carried that district by large margins as well.

And in GA-12, it looks like Barrow will get a free ride.  The current Republican candidates are all jokes, and no credible Republican has even be rumored to be considering the race.

[Tender Branson]

I don´t know really how to interpret the results of the 2 special elections: The newly elected Republicans did as well as the incumbents in 2006, yet the results for the Democrats weren´t as bad as in 2004. Probably 2008 will be a mix of both 2004 and 2006, with Republicans gaining a few close seats back that they lost in 2006. The actual outcome on Election Day 2008 probably will be in the +/- 10 seat range for both parties, but +/- 5 seats is more likely.

Obama -> 0-5 seat gain for the Democrats

Clinton -> 0-5 seat loss for the Democrats

[CavanaughPark]

IN-09, NH-02, CA-11, IN-07, GA-08, GA-12, SC-05, AZ-05 off the top of my head are seats Republicans can take. In most of those seats, they already have good  candidates running.

Which five districts there already have good candidates running? I'll grant CA-11 off the bat.

NH-02: Former Rep. Jeb Bradley, half the district probably thinks he's still the incumbent anyway.
IN-09: Former Rep. Mike Sodrel
AZ-05: A crowded field that attests the competitive nature of the district. Any of the top 3 in the GOP field will give Mitchell a run for his money.
IN-02: St. Rep. Jon Elrod.
GA-08: Rich Goddard


That wasn't so hard.

[CavanaughPark]

SC-05?  They had their best candidate in years there in 2006 and only got 42% of the vote, even as governor Mark Sanford was winning in a landslide.  IN-07 is a seat that John Kerry won by like 20 points and Julia Carson is retiring.  GA-12 is nearly half black and John Kerry won it, there is also no top tier challenger.  NH-02 is a district that John Kerry carried by 10 points and there is no top tier challenger.  AZ-05, IN-09, and CA-11 could go if 2008 is a down year for Democrats. 

Using 2006 as a gauge for future Congressional elections is not wise.
GA-12 is a district that the Democratic incumbent barely won...in 2006. Some GOP state legislators are looking at the race.
Democrats in Indianapolis are not doing well very recently. Republicans can stage an upset there, it's possible. More possible, than say, a Democrat wining a federal race in Mississippi.
NH-02 has the former moderate Congressman of the district running. Do your homework.
CA-11 is a likely GOP pickup. The challenger there is experienced with deep business contacts for fund raising. AZ-05 is up there, too.

[Gravis Marketing]

NH-02: Former Rep. Jeb Bradley, half the district probably thinks he's still the incumbent anyway.

Bradley's NH-01; NH-02 is Hodes' district, where there's still no challenger.

AZ-05: A crowded field that attests the competitive nature of the district. Any of the top 3 in the GOP field will give Mitchell a run for his money.

Balderdash. If you can't even name them, they're not likely to be giving a former Tempe mayor, State Senator, champion fundraiser, and moderate incumbent a "run for his money." The list I saw was mostly former state representatives at best and goes downhill from there.

IN-02: St. Rep. Jon Elrod.

Ok, that's four, counting Sodrel, Goddard, and Dean Andal. Any Republican faces an uphill battle in a district as blue as IN-07, but no big deal. The NH thing was a slip-up, I appreciate, although I would have taken Bradley into account if it had been correct at first.

[Gravis Marketing]

NH-02 has the former moderate Congressman of the district running. Do your homework.

*snort*

[MarkWarner08]

IN-09, NH-02, CA-11, IN-07, GA-08, GA-12, SC-05, AZ-05 off the top of my head are seats Republicans can take. In most of those seats, they already have good  candidates running.

Which five districts there already have good candidates running? I'll grant CA-11 off the bat.

NH-02: Former Rep. Jeb Bradley, half the district probably thinks he's still the incumbent anyway.
IN-09: Former Rep. Mike Sodrel
AZ-05: A crowded field that attests the competitive nature of the district. Any of the top 3 in the GOP field will give Mitchell a run for his money.
IN-02: St. Rep. Jon Elrod.
GA-08: Rich Goddard


That wasn't so hard.

IN-07 is the second most Democratic district in Indiana.
Mike Sodrel is a two-time loser who not recieve much support from the cash-strapped NRCC.
AZ-05. If you understand the political dynamics of this district, you'd realize that Harry Mitchell is perhaps the best possible Democrat to hold this seat. He's so popular that the voters in his home town approved a levy to build a statue in his honor.
GA-08: Jim Marshall is the only  non-freshman Democrat in America who faces a tough challenge in 2008.

GOP's top five targets:
GA-08, TX-22, PA-10, FL-16, and KS-02. After that, the Democratic incumbent is favored in every other race the Republicans are supposedly competing in.

[CavanaughPark]

NH-02 has the former moderate Congressman of the district running. Do your homework.

*snort*

NH-01, my apologies. NH-02 could actually be competitive, as well. NH-01 a almost a slam dunk.

[TheresNoMoney]

NH-01 a almost a slam dunk.

LMAO.

[CavanaughPark]

Actually, it'd make more sense if this were a grammar website and not one where people followed politics.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Bradley couldn't win as the incumbent, outspending his supposedly sacrificial lamb opponent 10:1. So how can he win out of office with equal funding? The NRSC doesn't even appear to regard NH-01 as a top target.

IN-09 will not flip except in a very good GOP year. The Democrats have a better chance without Carson than with her anyway.

AZ-05: Already covered. Mitchell is very popular. The GOP has a chance there, but not necessarily an excellent one. Worth noting this is the only Arizona district where Kerry outperformed Gore.

I pretty much agree MB08's analysis of the most vulnerable seats. Outside of GA-08 and some freshmen who won through flukes, there isn't much up for them.

[MarkWarner08]

NH-01 a almost a slam dunk.

LMAO.

Democratic Governor's coattails + near certain defeat of far-right Republican U.S Senator + energized Democratic base + bankrupt NRCC + the grassroots army of Carol Shea-Porter = Jeb Bradley's lackadaisical approach to campaigning = Democratic victory.

[Gravis Marketing]

Actually, it'd make more sense if this were a grammar website and not one where people followed politics.

People are commenting on the politics, not the grammar.

Do you think Jeb Bradley will campaign with Mike Huckabee next fall?

[CavanaughPark]

Actually, it'd make more sense if this were a grammar website and not one where people followed politics.

People are commenting on the politics, not the grammar.

Do you think Jeb Bradley will campaign with Mike Huckabee next fall?

Why would the former Gov. of Arkansas and failed Presidential candidate campaign for a NH Congressional candidate?

[MarkWarner08]

NH-02 has the former moderate Congressman of the district running. Do your homework.

*snort*

NH-01, my apologies. NH-02 could actually be competitive, as well. NH-01 a almost a slam dunk.

Normally for a race to be competitive, the opposing party has a candidate. NH-02 does not yet fill that criterion.

[CavanaughPark]

NH-02 has the former moderate Congressman of the district running. Do your homework.

*snort*

NH-01, my apologies. NH-02 could actually be competitive, as well. NH-01 a almost a slam dunk.

Normally for a race to be competitive, the opposing party has a candidate. NH-02 does not yet fill that criterion.

Now it actually is time for a grammar lesson! Could implies potential for a competitive race. I would have said it "will be a competitive race" if a good Republican had emerged.

[MarkWarner08]

Actually, it'd make more sense if this were a grammar website and not one where people followed politics.

People are commenting on the politics, not the grammar.

Do you think Jeb Bradley will campaign with Mike Huckabee next fall?

Why would the former Gov. of Arkansas and failed Presidential candidate campaign for a NH Congressional candidate?

Do you seriously think the GOP has a chance  of picking up Democratic seats outside of blood-red districts such as TX-22 and PA-10?

Republicans may make some noise in IL-08, TX-23, and NY-20 because of self-funding candidates, but it's a stretch to assume that Melissa Bean, Ciro Rodriguez and Kirsten Gillibran have done anything to cause voters to fire them.

[MarkWarner08]

NH-02 has the former moderate Congressman of the district running. Do your homework.

*snort*

NH-01, my apologies. NH-02 could actually be competitive, as well. NH-01 a almost a slam dunk.

Normally for a race to be competitive, the opposing party has a candidate. NH-02 does not yet fill that criterion.

Now it actually is time for a grammar lesson! Could implies potential for a competitive race. I would have said it "will be a competitive race" if a good Republican had emerged.

You were referring to a conditional future event predicated on a conditions not currently in place. I was referring to the present and the plausibility of such an event occurring. No need to be pedantic, CP.

[MarkWarner08]

NH-02 has the former moderate Congressman of the district running. Do your homework.

*snort*

NH-01, my apologies. NH-02 could actually be competitive, as well. NH-01 a almost a slam dunk.

Normally for a race to be competitive, the opposing party has a candidate. NH-02 does not yet fill that criterion.

Now it actually is time for a grammar lesson! Could implies potential for a competitive race. I would have said it "will be a competitive race" if a good Republican had emerged.

Do you believe that the GOP has 16 plausible Democratic House targets? If not, you're  conceding that the GOP has zero chance to pick up the House next year.