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| | | |-+  LA: Survey USA/Roll Call: Landrieu leads Kennedy in close race
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Author Topic: LA: Survey USA/Roll Call: Landrieu leads Kennedy in close race  (Read 1500 times)
Adlai Stevenson
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« on: December 13, 2007, 10:38:41 am »
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Poll Details: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=245970c4-8b90-4f28-91af-d0d0ee021eea


Summary:

If there were an election for United States Senate today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican John Kennedy and Democrat Mary Landrieu, who would you vote for?

42%    Kennedy (R)
46%    Landrieu (D)
13%    Undecided


M.O.E.: 3.9%

Is your opinion of Senator Mary Landrieu ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Senator Mary Landrieu?

40%    Favorable
32%    Unfavorable
21%    Neutral
7%    Unfamiliar


Is your opinion of State Treasurer John Kennedy ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with State Treasurer John Kennedy ?

35%    Favorable
10%    Unfavorable
30%    Neutral
26%    Unfamiliar


Demographic Breakdown:
Men back Kennedy by a 51%-39% margin and disapprove of Landrieu 38%-37%.

Women back Landrieu 52%-33% and approve of her 43%-27%. 

76% of Republicans would support Kennedy while 17% express a preference for Landrieu.

Amongst Democrats, Landrieu wins 73% to Kennedy's 19%.

The Independent vote goes 46%-35% for Landrieu.

Conservatives back Kennedy by a 71%-23% margin.  Moderates back Landrieu 56%-28%.  Liberals give Landrieu 71% support compared to 21% for Kennedy.

Whites, who make-up 67% of the poll, go 54%-32% for Kennedy.  Blacks, who make-up 29%, go 75%-15% for Landrieu. 

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=245970c4-8b90-4f28-91af-d0d0ee021eea
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TheresNoMoney
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E: -3.25, S: -2.72

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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2007, 11:46:13 am »
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SurveyUSA is a very good polling firm. These numbers are bad for Landrieu, she will have to fight her ass of and will still probably lose a close race.
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E: -3.25
S: -2.72

On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2007, 11:52:06 am »
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SurveyUSA is a very good polling firm. These numbers are bad for Landrieu, she will have to fight her ass of and will still probably lose a close race.

It would be good to see her job approval rating, because favorable ratings often differ from job approvals in a higher number. But yes, the way LA is trending Republican and her 2 previous close elections make her the #1 target/opportunity for Republicans ... I could see Kennedy winning by 3-5%.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2007, 12:31:57 pm »
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Once Kennedy's unfavorable's rise to normal levels for a Bayou pol, expect his numbers to fall accordingly. I still see this race as ending up as a 51-49  win for Landrieu.

An interesting factor to conisder is the abolishment of the November circus primary. I assume this will help the Republicans, who usually poll better on the first Tuesday of November?
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Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2007, 12:37:49 pm »
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SurveyUSA is a very good polling firm.

Is it?
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n/c
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2007, 02:57:21 pm »
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Is it?

Yes, in the 2006 election cycle I believe they were the most accurate.
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E: -3.25
S: -2.72

On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
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