Quebec secession

[ijohn57s]

Will Quebec ever secede from Canada? If so, when?

Personally, I think it's just a matter of time. I don't know exactly when it will be, but it's probably not that far down the road.

[English]

No. Demographics are working against the seperatists. The vast majority of immigrants to Quebec are in favour of a united Canada. The BQ missed their chance in the mid 90's, it's far too late now. They would barely get 40% in a referendum today.
If you look at the BQ manifesto, independence is no longer the main theme, if at all! They're merely a Quebec interest party nowadays.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. The Clairity Act stops that from happening (in the most recent referendum the question was very, very long and very, very confusing. If there was a new referendum it would be "yes or no")

[minionofmidas]

Not that that confused anybody.

[MasterJedi]

Eventually they possibly will. I'll guess by 2100 they probably will and once that happens there won't really be a Canada anymore. Just a USA that covers most of North America!

[Niles Caulder]

I agree with English; the moment of truth has passed.  The separatist-nationalistic ideology will linger in French hearts for perhaps a century or more...but it won't ever be representative enough to push the boulder to the peak again.

As English pointed out, they already know it, too:  Issue is off the plate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that that confused anybody.

Never undestimate the sheer stupidity of people

Although in fairness to the few mentally deficient voters who accidentally voted "Yes", the question was very confusing (I've got a copy somewhere. I'll see if I can find it)

[M]

There is always the possibility of immigration alienating the native majority. Note Texas, for example, where immigration of Democratic leaning Mexicans was in fact more than canceled out by the subsequent Republican gains among Anglos, which has to do with immigration, among other things.

[Bogart]

Not likely. Motivated self-interest will prevent this. Quebec wouldn't make it economically as an independant country.

[M]

I don't know the exavt numbers, but it would be a lot more than a singl department.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know the exavt numbers, but it would be a lot more than a singl department.

It would be a lot larger than any currently existing department, but I don't think that would matter.

[Math]

"Vive le Quebec libre" De Gaulle

[Siege40]

Will Quebec ever secede from Canada? If so, when?

Personally, I think it's just a matter of time. I don't know exactly when it will be, but it's probably not that far down the road.

The idea that Quebec separation is inevitable is... well stupid. As immagrants enter Quebec 99% of the time the favour Nationalism. Given that Quebec follows Canada in its low birthrate of the Quebecois is on the decline, therefore less French to liberate. Al is right, of those in Quebec who voted for the BQ only 40% (might be wrong, from memmory) wanted separation.

There's a slight possibility that if western Conservative come to power the division will be increased, because they are so rediculously insensitive to the Quebecois. But as long as Ontario goes Red, there's nothing to fear.

Siege

[raggage]

Breaking away from Canada would be stupid. It wouldn't survive economically, politically or militarily.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Breaking away from Canada would be stupid. It wouldn't survive economically, politically or militarily.

I did an essay a while ago on why it would be stupid for Quebec to become independent, why it can't happen, and why some Quebecers want independence.
See if I can find it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Breaking away from Canada would be stupid. It wouldn't survive economically, politically or militarily.

Militarily?  Who would invade La République Québecoise?
Politically? I fail to see that.  Granted, the PQ would likely fracture into multiple parties once the goal of independence was achieved, but the death of a political party is not the same the death of a country.
Economially?  Unless Quebec refused to remain part of NAFTA, there is nothing as far as extermal ecominics that would be a problem, as I can see any of the NAFTA countries refusing her admittance unless Canada decides to be petty about it, but if Canada was, there certainly would be a bilateral US Quebec Free Trade Agreement that  Quebec could accept  I'll admit that I don't know enough about internal Canadian economics to judge whether Quebec is subsidized by the national government or not.  But with the probable breakup of the PQ, the econic policy of an independent Quebec would be next to impossible to predict.

Canada would be the real loser if Quebec were to succeed, because I fail to see how Canada would be able to stay united once Quebec left.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Militarily?  Who would invade La République Québecoise?

Canada

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Perhaps he means diplomatically: Quebec's language laws would return to how they were before the Canadian Supreme Court said that banning all languages except for French in public places wasn't legal. The result would make Quebec a pariah state

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Quebec's economy is a mess basically. It is propped up by Government subsidies (of which it gets a lot more than it's fair share, something that pisses of people in the Maritimes) most federal contracts are done by Quebec etc. etc. etc.
No subsidies=economic disaster
Another problem is that the the Shipping industry (including PMPM's company) in Montreal would get the hell out as soon as possible: it's run by Anglo's and Federalist Franco's (about 25% of Quebecers would leave Quebec if it became independent...) Montreal could become redundent as a port very quickly.
And then there's Aluminum. Because of Hydro-Quebec (and that's another problem: who's going to buy electric from a Pariah state?) Quebec has a huge Aluminum smelting industry (along with by-products like wire, trains... etc) much of which is based in the PQ stronghold, the Saugeney Valley.
Quebec doesn't have any Bauxite (it's imported from Jamaica and Guyana, both are Commonwealth Countries, BTW) and much of the industry might be re-located to Labrador or Northern Ontario... devastating the economy of the most staunchly seperatist part of Quebec.
There is no case for independence based on economics (most Quebecers know this) it's based on the emotional pull of dodgy history and a "superiority complex"

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Dunno about that: a lot of Canada would do well out of Quebec leaving (the Maritimes, Northern Ontario and the Praries) as they'd get more federal subsidies, support and stuff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Canada would be the real loser if Quebec were to succeed, because I fail to see how Canada would be able to stay united once Quebec left.

Dunno about that: a lot of Canada would do well out of Quebec leaving (the Maritimes, Northern Ontario and the Praries) as they'd get more federal subsidies, support and stuff.

Except that if there is no longer a united Canada stretching unbroken from the Atlantic to the Pacific why the heck would the prairies remain part of Canada? Once the prairies go, I can't see Ontatio being so enamoured with the idea of Canada as to send money to the Maritimes.  There probably would still be a Canada, but it would consist of only the Maritimes, the Territories and maybe British Columbia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Canada would be the real loser if Quebec were to succeed, because I fail to see how Canada would be able to stay united once Quebec left.

Dunno about that: a lot of Canada would do well out of Quebec leaving (the Maritimes, Northern Ontario and the Praries) as they'd get more federal subsidies, support and stuff.

Except that if there is no longer a united Canada stretching unbroken from the Atlantic to the Pacific why the heck would the prairies remain part of Canada? Once the prairies go, I can't see Ontatio being so enamoured with the idea of Canada as to send money to the Maritimes.  There probably would still be a Canada, but it would consist of only the Maritimes, the Territories and maybe British Columbia.

Well Alberta might leave (by Praries I mean Sask. and Manitoba, both also take large subsidies)... but I don't see any other province leaving as it's not in the interest of most to do so.
The only province viable outside Confederation is (IMO) Ontario.

[Volrath50]

The only province viable outside Confederation is (IMO) Ontario.

Heh. Speaking of that, my brother honestly thinks that we should dump all other provinces/territories except for Québec.

[Nation]

Not likely. Motivated self-interest will prevent this. Quebec wouldn't make it economically as an independant country.

Exactly. And if they ever did secede, this would eventually force them back into Canada.

[bgwah]

Probably not but I wish they did. Then America would have a chance fo take over English Canada.

hahaha!

[Fritz]

Probably not but I wish they did. Then America would have a chance fo take over English Canada.

hahaha!

Which brings up an interesting question.  If Quebec DID secede, are there any other provinces that might think joining the USA was a good idea?  Lets hear from you Canadians out there.

[Gabu]

Probably not but I wish they did. Then America would have a chance fo take over English Canada.

hahaha!

Which brings up an interesting question.  If Quebec DID secede, are there any other provinces that might think joining the USA was a good idea?  Lets hear from you Canadians out there.

I think BC would probably be the most likely (besides Québec) to break away from Canada.  There's a strong sense of alienation from the federal government here; a lot of people think that Ottawa thinks that we don't matter.

However, while BC is the most likely to, I don't personally think any province would go for it.  Québec already put it up to a referendum and it was shot down, and there's even an entire party in Québec whose entire platform is pretty much secession from Canada (the Bloc Québecois).  The BQ sometimes even gets a majority of the seats in Québec, as was the case in the last general election, and the referendum still failed.  Even if it did succeed sometime later, the fact is that it's not a widely supported idea.  I don't think a Québec secession would provoke a domino effect.

The bottom line is that from what I know, even people who live in provinces that feel alienated from the federal government still feel a strong sense of attachment to Canada itself, so I personally doubt that any province will be going anywhere.

[Gabu]

Probably not but I wish they did. Then America would have a chance fo take over English Canada.

hahaha!

Which brings up an interesting question.  If Quebec DID secede, are there any other provinces that might think joining the USA was a good idea?  Lets hear from you Canadians out there.

Fritz, I am obviously not Canadian but I recall back in the early 70's when bombings were too common in Quebec and the secessionists were seemingly forcing the issue with violence. some provinces actually contacted the State Department about the process of statehood admission. As I recollect Henry Kissinger basically told them there was no way he could address their questions until they made their position known to Ottawa. Again from memory, I believe the provinces that expressed an interest were Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. This was some 30 years ago so I expect things have changed greatly.

That was during the days of the existance of the separatist group, Front du Libération du Québec (FLQ).  The FLQ was essentially a terrorist organization who believed that the only way Québec could survive was to have a revolution overthrowing the provincial government and to establish Québec as a separate nation.  They killed at least five people through bombings and gunfire (and one hostage they took was killed) before Pierre Trudeau decided to invoke the War Measures Act to declare martial law and send the Canadian military to Québec to stop them.

Given that neither the FLQ nor any group like it is in existance in Canada anymore, yes, I would say that things have indeed changed greatly since then.