Giuliani losing ground!

[TommyC1776]

I noticed that Rudy Giuliani is losing ground in some of the early states.  That's not good for his campaign.  Do u think his liberal postions on gays and abortions are making him lose?  Or do you think that Huckabee's rise is just cutting it?  Please respond.  thanks.

[Eraserhead]

It isn't just the early states he is losing ground in. He is behind in Florida now according to Rasmussen and he isn't ahead by much in California even anymore. I think it was more the "Drivin' Miss Judi" scandal and the release of the NIE Report than his actual positions on social issues.

[Padfoot]

I think Huckabee's rise is caused directly by Giuliani's liberal social record rather than the two being separate issues.

[12th Doctor]

*Sigh*

Maybe I just won't vote in the general election.

[bullmoose88]

*Sigh*

Maybe I just won't vote in the general election.

Vote for Bloomberg if he runs.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

voting for bloomberg is a useless vote. he has no chance at winning the white house, and if he won enough states to throw the election into the house, we'd still have a democrat elected.

i agree, it is sad to see rudy is basically done. i hope our voters get some sense before the primaries are finished as the Dems did when Dean imploded.

[agcatter]

I still think Giuliani goes into the convention with 20 - 25% of the delegates.  He's gonna get a ton just out of NJ, NY, Connecticut, Pa, etc. The rest will go to Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, McCain, with a handful divided between Paul and others.

No one will have a majority.  Call me crazy, but if no one drops out, I still say a brokered convention turns to John McCain.

Can anyone else see that happening?

[Frodo]

According to an article in the Politico, Flip-Flopping Romney is fading too, and is lashing out at Huckabee as a direct result of his decline.

[Mr. Morden]

I still think Giuliani goes into the convention with 20 - 25% of the delegates.  He's gonna get a ton just out of NJ, NY, Connecticut, Pa, etc.

Giuliani has to win a lot more on Feb. 5th than just NY, NJ, and CT, or else he's going to be out of the race by the time PA has its primary (in April).

[Floridude]

If Giuliani sees that no one is going to get a majority of delegates after the Feb 5 results, he probably won't drop out, just to give him a stronger bargaining hand when the decide the nominee (though I highly doubt at any brokered deal they would pick him)

[M]

*Sigh*

Maybe I just won't vote in the general election.

Maybe I'll just write you in. You support the war and oppose universal health care, right?

[Хahar 🤔]

voting for bloomberg is a useless vote. he has no chance at winning the white house, and if he won enough states to throw the election into the house, we'd still have a democrat elected. 

Not necessarily. Even if the Democrats retained the House (which is quite likely), the Republicans may control more state delegations.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

According to an article in the Politico, Flip-Flopping Romney is fading too, and is lashing out at Huckabee as a direct result of his decline.

Well all of Huck's actions are being kept as quiet as possible by the media. They are rooting for him! It makes me very angry that he came out and attacked the White House. He isn't a Democrat for God's sake. Romney flip flops way too much and is far too fake for me. I am at a loss if I have to chose between either Huckabee or Romney.

You would think that their actions would hurt their poll numbers, but Romney continues to lead NH and Iowa is all over in Huckabee's favor.

[Padfoot]

voting for bloomberg is a useless vote. he has no chance at winning the white house, and if he won enough states to throw the election into the house, we'd still have a democrat elected. 

Not necessarily. Even if the Democrats retained the House (which is quite likely), the Republicans may control more state delegations.

Unlikely, Democrats currently control 26 state delegations.  3 are tied and Republicans have the remaining 21.

[Хahar 🤔]

voting for bloomberg is a useless vote. he has no chance at winning the white house, and if he won enough states to throw the election into the house, we'd still have a democrat elected. 

Not necessarily. Even if the Democrats retained the House (which is quite likely), the Republicans may control more state delegations.

Unlikely, Democrats currently control 26 state delegations.  3 are tied and Republicans have the remaining 21.

If the Republicans gain 5-10 seats, it's perfectly possible.

[12th Doctor]

*Sigh*

Maybe I just won't vote in the general election.

Maybe I'll just write you in. You support the war and oppose universal health care, right?

Well, I oppose a cut and run strategy, but do want a change in thought and yes, I oppose universal health care.  Only problem is I am only 23... but thanks anyhow.

I might write-in Rudy anyway, if it really comes to that.

BTW... I remember now that you sent me a PM sometime ago... I wasn't ignoring you.  Sorry, I just forgot until now.  How have you been as of late?

[gorkay]

It would be funny if the Republican nomination came down to Huckabee and McCain, wouldn't it?

[Padfoot]

voting for bloomberg is a useless vote. he has no chance at winning the white house, and if he won enough states to throw the election into the house, we'd still have a democrat elected. 

Not necessarily. Even if the Democrats retained the House (which is quite likely), the Republicans may control more state delegations.

Unlikely, Democrats currently control 26 state delegations.  3 are tied and Republicans have the remaining 21.

If the Republicans gain 5-10 seats, it's perfectly possible.

Except its almost impossible for Republicans to make any gains in the right states and more than likely that Democrats could flip a few.  As I see it, Democrats have a legitimate shot of flipping Nevada and New Mexico, keeping Arizona tied or flipping it their way, and they have the potential to flip or tie Ohio.  They'll probably either maintain or further solidify their majorities in New Jersey, Minnesota, Illinois, and New York. 

Republicans could realistically move Kansas and Indiana back to them.  I can't see them winning back or even forcing a tie in any other states.

Pennsylvania is the only state that seems hard to predict at this point.  PA-10 seems like one that will flip back to Republicans giving them a majority.  But you also have PA-3, PA-6, and PA-15 as major targets for Democrats to pick up.

So I guess the best I can see Republicans doing is picking up 3 and forcing a tie in the House with two remaining states having tied delegations: Mississippi and Arizona.  If the House were indeed tied then it would continue holding votes until a candidate was chosen.  I doubt it would come to that though because the Senate chooses the VP in the event of an EV tie and the Senators vote individually not as a state delegation.  Since Democrats are more than assured they will keep a majority in the Senate the VP will almost certainly be a Democrat and the House would probably follow suit in choosing the Democratic presidential nominee.  Also, Its more than likely that the Democrat will have received either a majority or plurality of the popular vote nationwide so choosing the Democrat would be the obvious choice.

[M]

*Sigh*

Maybe I just won't vote in the general election.

Maybe I'll just write you in. You support the war and oppose universal health care, right?

Well, I oppose a cut and run strategy, but do want a change in thought and yes, I oppose universal health care.  Only problem is I am only 23... but thanks anyhow.

I might write-in Rudy anyway, if it really comes to that.

BTW... I remember now that you sent me a PM sometime ago... I wasn't ignoring you.  Sorry, I just forgot until now.  How have you been as of late?

Replied by PM.