How will things look in 2012?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If Hillary Clinton wins, this is my projection for the 2012 election, barring any type of major disaster:

[DownWithTheLeft]

I mean this guy is the biggest hack, but what is with all these others Dems thinking Arkansas is suddenly going to become a Dem bastion?  That one poll that came out showing Hillary doing well there?  There is also a poll showing Indiana is Strong Dem

[War on Want]

I mean this guy is the biggest hack, but what is with all these others Dems thinking Arkansas is suddenly going to become a Dem bastion?  That one poll that came out showing Hillary doing well there?  There is also a poll showing Indiana is Strong Dem

Arkansas has always been fairly Democratic, and if Hillary Clinton is president, it probably would be a Democratic stronghold again.

[The Mikado]

If Hillary Clinton wins, this is my projection for the 2012 election, barring any type of major disaster:

Um, dude...Tennessee a swing state again?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I mean this guy is the biggest hack, but what is with all these others Dems thinking Arkansas is suddenly going to become a Dem bastion?  That one poll that came out showing Hillary doing well there?  There is also a poll showing Indiana is Strong Dem

Maybe you didn't read, but this is in 2012, with Hillary getting ready for her second term.  Under that circumstance, I would expect Arkansas to lean towards her.

[HappyWarrior]

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, the electoral vote allocation will be different by then.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Of course, the electoral vote allocation will be different by then.

Which is why I did this:

[Хahar 🤔]

Even more hackish!

[reformer]

Once foreign policy clears up a bit, I'm afraid that there will be another attempt to highjack the GOP with Libertarians. Without a war on the next (probably younger) Paul may actually get somewhere, thus alienating huge portions of the American population.

[Josh/Devilman88]

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'd give NC another EV or so. it's growing very rapidly.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC is heading to be "the NY of the south"

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC is heading to be "the NY of the south"

No it really is not in any sense.

Well, the major cities are anyway.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'd give NC another EV or so. it's growing very rapidly.

I came up with these totals based on an estimate by the National Journal 2007 Political Atlas.  I would agree that Nevada may gain 2 seats, but I just followed the book on this one.

[War on Want]

NC is heading to be "the NY of the south"

No it really is not in any sense.

Well, the major cities are anyway.

Have you been to New York?  Or heard anything about it?  There is one overwhelmingly dominant urban mass that dictates the politics of the entire state.  In North Carolina, the multiple "urban" areas are fairly balanced and not in any position to become politically dominant.  If it really were headed to be the New York of the south, Charlotte would have to be growing much faster and be MUCH more liberal.  The only urban area you can really say is liberal overall is Durham.  Raleigh, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Asheville, and Charlotte are all floating around the middle with no real dominant political direction.  The rest of the state, however is heavily conservative except for the sparse northeast.

They probably all will lean Democratic in the near future with more population growth.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC is heading to be "the NY of the south"

No it really is not in any sense.

Well, the major cities are anyway.

Have you been to New York?  Or heard anything about it?  There is one overwhelmingly dominant urban mass that dictates the politics of the entire state.  In North Carolina, the multiple "urban" areas are fairly balanced and not in any position to become politically dominant.  If it really were headed to be the New York of the south, Charlotte would have to be growing much faster and be MUCH more liberal.  The only urban area you can really say is liberal overall is Durham.  Raleigh, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Asheville, and Charlotte are all floating around the middle with no real dominant political direction.  The rest of the state, however is heavily conservative except for the sparse northeast.

I'm just saying with the growing population from NY and NJ, NC will become more and more like NY

[muon2]

I'd give NC another EV or so. it's growing very rapidly.

I came up with these totals based on an estimate by the National Journal 2007 Political Atlas.  I would agree that Nevada may gain 2 seats, but I just followed the book on this one.

I had a detailed analysis a year ago directly from the census estimates projected to 4/1/2010. I would differ from your map as follows: +1 to CA, no change to NJ, OR, WA. In case, stay tuned for a new projection next week when the Census releases estimates from 7/1/2007.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'd give NC another EV or so. it's growing very rapidly.

I came up with these totals based on an estimate by the National Journal 2007 Political Atlas.  I would agree that Nevada may gain 2 seats, but I just followed the book on this one.

I had a detailed analysis a year ago directly from the census estimates projected to 4/1/2010. I would differ from your map as follows: +1 to CA, no change to NJ, OR, WA. In case, stay tuned for a new projection next week when the Census releases estimates from 7/1/2007.

I can't access the link

[muon2]

I'd give NC another EV or so. it's growing very rapidly.

I came up with these totals based on an estimate by the National Journal 2007 Political Atlas.  I would agree that Nevada may gain 2 seats, but I just followed the book on this one.

I had a detailed analysis a year ago directly from the census estimates projected to 4/1/2010. I would differ from your map as follows: +1 to CA, no change to NJ, OR, WA. In case, stay tuned for a new projection next week when the Census releases estimates from 7/1/2007.

I can't access the link

Sorry, I've fixed it now.

[auburntiger]

If Hillary Clinton wins, this is my projection for the 2012 election, barring any type of major disaster:

Um, dude...Tennessee a swing state again?

I wouldn't rule it out. We're not a strong GOP state like the deep south. Thankyou Memphis and Nashville, and Chattanooga, which is not far behind

[jesmo]

Where do you all get all this information from?

The correct answer is, who knows?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC is heading to be "the NY of the south"

No it really is not in any sense.

Well, the major cities are anyway.

Have you been to New York?  Or heard anything about it?  There is one overwhelmingly dominant urban mass that dictates the politics of the entire state.  In North Carolina, the multiple "urban" areas are fairly balanced and not in any position to become politically dominant.  If it really were headed to be the New York of the south, Charlotte would have to be growing much faster and be MUCH more liberal.  The only urban area you can really say is liberal overall is Durham.  Raleigh, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Asheville, and Charlotte are all floating around the middle with no real dominant political direction.  The rest of the state, however is heavily conservative except for the sparse northeast.

I'm just saying with the growing population from NY and NJ, NC will become more and more like NY

It may as it continues to grow. But it does lack any dominant area. Winston is about 55/45 GOP, Charlotte and Greensboro are about 50/50, Raleigh and Wake County are is about 50/50, Durham is 65/35 DEM, but that is mostly due to the large black population, and CHapel Hill is 70/30DEM, but that is just the University. Neither one is considered  a large urban area. Charlotte needs to be much more liberal before we begin calling NC the NY of the south.

I go to school at UNC and yes, it's disgustingly liberal for my tastes coming from Charleston, but its still not an urban center that will effect the outcome of state-wide elections very much.

[Michael Z]

Aliens invade in 2009 and create a world government under their total control, with Xxxxiaangfgjaaaala annointed as our Supreme Benevolent Leader. Our new intergalactic overlords install Dennis Kucinich as their surrogate in the newly named American Commissionary Region (Formerly USA) and so the 2012 election will be between Surrogate Supreme Benevolent Leader Kucinich and Chelsea Clinton, leader of the rebel alliance (for some reason the aliens allow human rebels to contest in elections). Ralph Nader also runs, but nobody notices or cares. The map looks something like this:

Nebraska was carried by the Nebraskan Independence Fraction For The Deification Of David Hasselhoff Our One And Only God On Earth, which won the state solely because of a computer glitch.

However, due to much vote rigging and a total nationwide blackout caused by giant mutated gerbils attacking every single major city in the world, nobody actually knows who stood for what party, who won the election, and who is running the country. The resulting chaos results in anarchy, civil war, mass orgies, and a sustainable drop in the price of Marmite. Ralph Nader announces he'll probably run again in 2016.

[pbrower2a]

1. Basically, Obama does as precisely as well in 2012 as in 2008 in winning electoral votes: 

(exchange Indiana for Arizona because Obama won't campaign actively in IN but AZ won't have a Favorite Son candidate)

2. Bare Obama win:

Obama wins one of Colorado and Virginia, but not both.

3. Bare Obama loss:

He loses everything that he did not win by at least  10% in 2008.

4. Obama does better by 2% than he did in 2008, but nothing else really changes:

5. Obama wins over poor white people:

6. Obama vs. Huckabee, who offends the Mormons:

(Huckabee still wins NE-03 but loses the state at large)