SC: CNN/Time: Clinton leads by 1 in SC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: South Carolina President by CNN/Time on 2007-12-12

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alcon]

Also included:

Huckabee 48%
Clinton 47%

[Person Man]

wow.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Outlier, right?

[Tender Branson]

That is ... eh ... weird. It´s also the first SC poll. let´s wait and see if Rasmussen etc. confirms it. Also, early NC polls showing a toss-up were later supported by Rasmussen.

[Flying Dog]

I keep on saying we could see major electoral realignment in this cycle. Do not be too dependent on 2000 and 2004 results to base your predictions on.

[Gustaf]

Isn't CNN/Time one of the worse polls around? At least I seem to recall not trusting it all that much. But given what we've seen elsewhere Clinton could be close but most likely not this close.

[ottermax]

Maybe it will be close, but the Dems won't win SC.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe it will be close, but the Dems won't win SC.

I'd have to disagree with that.  A lot depends on the candidates.  The last few Democratic nominees have not been the sort that inspire South Carolina's Democrats or independents to vote for them.  If the Republicans pick Rudy, that'll negate a lot of the social conservative fervor for the GOP.  That said, if the Dems are competitive here, it'll be academic whether they actually win the state as they'll certainly have won the election.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

how could hillary inspire SC's democrats? her husband couldn't even carry the state over Bob Dole. I cant see a Democrat winning this state even if Rudy is the nominee. He's got a lot of support in the Charleston area from what I've seen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I keep on saying we could see major electoral realignment in this cycle. Do not be too dependent on 2000 and 2004 results to base your predictions on.

I completely agree. With Bush gone, a big sway of the country will become a lot more competitive. The Republican will not win the border states by the 15-20% margins of 2004.

[Padfoot]

how could hillary inspire SC's democrats? her husband couldn't even carry the state over Bob Dole. I cant see a Democrat winning this state even if Rudy is the nominee. He's got a lot of support in the Charleston area from what I've seen.

The question isn't how much the Democrat will inspire her/his party, its more about how much the Republican will inspire his party.  I recently read that SC has a lot of new transplants from New York which could be good or bad for Giuliani depending on how you look at it.  Clinton is leading Giuliani by wide margins in New York but do the transplants in SC feel the same?  I'd say that Republicans still have the edge here regardless of candidates but I would be surprised if their margin of victory is more than 10 points.

[auburntiger]

Honestly, I don't see how any Democratic candidate could topple this GOP stronghold. But then again, define a party "stronghold"

[Gustaf]

I can see it happen, although surprising.  Blacks really hate Bush and may be more inclined to get out and vote. 

Now that he's not running? That seems a tad illogical, to be honest...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I keep on saying we could see major electoral realignment in this cycle. Do not be too dependent on 2000 and 2004 results to base your predictions on.

True, but South Carolina is solidly GOP.  They haven't gone Dem since Carter in '76, and vote reliably GOP at the statewide level.  This poll is odd, and I doubt it will be remotely accurate in the GE.

[wdecker1]

It is important to note that there are many black voters in South Carolina and the black community may be energized to vote based on their strong dislike of Bush and their fondness of the Clintons.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Clinton wont win in SC. She may get more than the 40% that Kerry got, but she will not beat the GOP.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Clinton wont win in SC. She may get more than the 40% that Kerry got, but she will not beat the GOP.

I would have to agree, SC is lean to strong Republican in 2008.