Alabama County Map

[Lief 🗽]

Looking at state maps for the 2004 election today, and I click on Alabama and see a distinctive horizontal streak of red dividing the map in half. Is there any geographic significance behind this or it just a fun coincidence?

[Meeker]

It's called the Black Belt. Originally it was called that because a lot of the soil was black, nowadays it's name is also appropriate because it's where a large portion of the state's African-American population lives. Why do they live there? It's where the pre-Civil War plantations were.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Belt_%28region_of_Alabama%29

Black soil --> plantations --> black slaves --> large freed black populations --> Democratic voters

[muon2]

Yes all of those counties are majority black except for Russell on the east. Interestingly Marengo County (near the west touching six other red counties) is also majority black yet voted for Bush.

[ottermax]

Yes all of those counties are majority black except for Russell on the east. Interestingly Marengo County (near the west touching six other red counties) is also majority black yet voted for Bush.

Low voter turnout perhaps? Alabama has a rather low voter turnout overall.

[Padfoot]

Yes all of those counties are majority black except for Russell on the east. Interestingly Marengo County (near the west touching six other red counties) is also majority black yet voted for Bush.

Low voter turnout perhaps? Alabama has a rather low voter turnout overall.

I don't think Kerry was the best choice to mobilize black voters.

[Alcon]

Yes all of those counties are majority black except for Russell on the east. Interestingly Marengo County (near the west touching six other red counties) is also majority black yet voted for Bush.

Low voter turnout perhaps? Alabama has a rather low voter turnout overall.

Black voters are more Democratic than whites are Republican, but turn out less.  It tends to balance out, but not always.

[Mr.Phips]

Looking at state maps for the 2004 election today, and I click on Alabama and see a distinctive horizontal streak of red dividing the map in half. Is there any geographic significance behind this or it just a fun coincidence?

This was one of the worst performances for a Democrat in Alabama since George McGovern in 1972.   Usually even the weakest of Democrats since then have carried at least a few of the Northern blue collar counties.   

[Hash]

The swing map is also interesting

[gorkay]

Speaking of the African-American vote: I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of what Barack Obama getting the Democratic nomination could mean for Democratic possibilities in the south. Could a massive turnout of African-American voters in southern states with large African-American politicians, many of whom may have never voted or even registered in the past, swing some of these states to the Democrats?

[Lief 🗽]

I doubt it. The states with large enough black populations for there to be a huge effect are all solidly Republican (Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana). Where it would matter, I'd think, would be in the Congressional races, where heavy African-American turnout could help Democrats in many Southern districts.

[Willy Woz]

Speaking of the African-American vote: I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of what Barack Obama getting the Democratic nomination could mean for Democratic possibilities in the south. Could a massive turnout of African-American voters in southern states with large African-American politicians, many of whom may have never voted or even registered in the past, swing some of these states to the Democrats?

I think SurveyUSA has info like that, but you have to pay quite a large fee in order to see it. As I recall, Obama could win pretty easily in every area except the racist Midwest.

[nclib]

As I recall, Obama could win pretty easily in every area except the racist Midwest.

I'm not sure how you're defining the Midwest, but I've thought about it as MN, IA, MO, IL, WI, IN, MI, and OH. Obama certainly is very popular in Illinois, and could win every Midwestern state I listed except Indiana and perhaps Missouri.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Speaking of the African-American vote: I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of what Barack Obama getting the Democratic nomination could mean for Democratic possibilities in the south. Could a massive turnout of African-American voters in southern states with large African-American politicians, many of whom may have never voted or even registered in the past, swing some of these states to the Democrats?

I think SurveyUSA has info like that, but you have to pay quite a large fee in order to see it. As I recall, Obama could win pretty easily in every area except the racist Midwest.

The midwest isn't notably racist, at least not any more than any other part of the country. If anything, the fact that there is a relative lack of racial tension in these heavily white states will help him.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that the affect of the Obama candidacy on the South would be especially interesting.  If African Americans really did turnout in large numbers, he might get up to 45% in Mississippi, and he could pick up on the residual strength of the coalition of overwhelming black support and 40% white support that almost elected Ford to the Senate in Tennessee.  Maybe.

[Willy Woz]

As I recall, Obama could win pretty easily in every area except the racist Midwest.

I'm not sure how you're defining the Midwest, but I've thought about it as MN, IA, MO, IL, WI, IN, MI, and OH. Obama certainly is very popular in Illinois, and could win every Midwestern state I listed except Indiana and perhaps Missouri.

I define it more as WI, MN, IA, IL, MO, NE, KS, ND, SD, MI, and MT. I doubt he'd do very well in any Plain state or Montana.

[nclib]

As I recall, Obama could win pretty easily in every area except the racist Midwest.

I'm not sure how you're defining the Midwest, but I've thought about it as MN, IA, MO, IL, WI, IN, MI, and OH. Obama certainly is very popular in Illinois, and could win every Midwestern state I listed except Indiana and perhaps Missouri.

I define it more as WI, MN, IA, IL, MO, NE, KS, ND, SD, MI, and MT. I doubt he'd do very well in any Plain state or Montana.

Obama won't do very well in the Plains states or Montana, but I doubt he'd do much worse than the other Dems. Also, none of those states will be carried by any Democrat in a competitive election.

[jimrtex]

Looking at state maps for the 2004 election today, and I click on Alabama and see a distinctive horizontal streak of red dividing the map in half. Is there any geographic significance behind this or it just a fun coincidence?

It is the area where large-scale slave plantation was prevalent.   It actually continues in an arc across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia.  It doesn't really get to far into eastern Mississippi, where the plantation area was along the Mississippi River, especially in the northwest area known as the Mississippi Delta.

For Georgia, see the 1984 map, South Carolina, 1988, and North Carolina the 1968 map.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. The states with large enough black populations for there to be a huge effect are all solidly Republican (Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana). Where it would matter, I'd think, would be in the Congressional races, where heavy African-American turnout could help Democrats in many Southern districts.

He would probably help Jim Marshall in GA-08, whose district is 35% black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based on what? Being black is going to be LESS of an issue in states with low racial tensions, which is what the lily-white described are, not MORE.