Post Castro Cuba

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What do you think will happen in Cuba when Castro finally does die?  I think there will probably be some sort of Civil War, and I see the US getting involved, with the final result of a Democratic style government being established there; sort of a more successfull version of Russia.  I also think there will eventually be a large number of Floridians who go back to Cuba once the situation is settled.  Does anyone else have any ideas?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Raul Castro will take over. Everything would be the same in my mind anyway.

[2952-0-0]

If someone put a gun to my head I'd say that there would probably be something like Hugo Chavez, probably someone who is right now an obscure Party official, who wins massive support. The reason I'm guessing that is this:

1) Practically nobody there would like the country to fall under US intervention. Jose Marti warned about it, and perhaps decades of brainwashing and listening to long rants about imperialists would strengthen that resolve.

2) A sizeable proportion of the population are genuine communists, so a hard-left political force would be very influential.

3) All the South Florida Cubans who fled Fidel are at least in their 50s and, at that age, most may prefer the safety of Florida. I don't think second-generation Cubans who have never been to Cuba and who have been fully integrated into US society will want to go.

4) The transitional government would encourage free enterprise, but they definitely won't allow a Russian-style theft of the country's resources.

[minionofmidas]

Raul Castro will take over. Everything would be the same in my mind anyway.

Not really an answer as Raúl isn't much younger than his brother.
Besides, it's not clear how much of the regime's remaining popularity would survive the loss of Fidel.

What do you think will happen in Cuba when Castro finally does die?  I think there will probably be some sort of Civil War, and I see the US getting involved, with the final result of a Democratic style government being established there; sort of a more successfull version of Russia.  I also think there will eventually be a large number of Floridians who go back to Cuba once the situation is settled.  Does anyone else have any ideas?

If someone put a gun to my head I'd say that there would probably be something like Hugo Chavez, probably someone who is right now an obscure Party official, who wins massive support. The reason I'm guessing that is this:

1) Practically nobody there would like the country to fall under US intervention. Jose Marti warned about it, and perhaps decades of brainwashing and listening to long rants about imperialists would strengthen that resolve.

2) A sizeable proportion of the population are genuine communists, so a hard-left political force would be very influential.

3) All the South Florida Cubans who fled Fidel are at least in their 50s and, at that age, most may prefer the safety of Florida. I don't think second-generation Cubans who have never been to Cuba and who have been fully integrated into US society will want to go.

4) The transitional government would encourage free enterprise, but they definitely won't allow a Russian-style theft of the country's resources.

There won't be an actual civil war, that much you can take for granted. Coups, on the other hand...
And your typical (ie, cliché) Cuban-Miamiite would presumably not be any more welcome in his home country than he was in 1958.
As to Fern's fourth point, I disagree. Sadly. Well, maybe not Russian-style. (What ressources are there to steal, anyways?)
US involvement will depend on the administration and the mood in the US at the time... it certainly wouldn't do any good though - it's a prerequisite for any really messy scenario.
The most realistic scenario is something of an inofficial Chavez takeover. The longterm future of Cuba may very well depend on US acceptance of the fact. (Removal of sanctions without demanding their assets back, for example. Stuff like that.)

[© tweed]

American cruise ships to the Caribbean will spend a night in Havana.

everything you need can be extrapolated from that truth.

[2952-0-0]

In a fortunate coincidence, Fidel has suggested he might retire...

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN1743988820071218?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&sp=true&rpc=92

[Sensei]

Raul will take over, and everything will continue as is, pretty much. I hope for democracy, but you can't always get what you want.

[dead0man]

As soon as the Cubans get a taste of American tourist dollars again, the place will turn into what it was in the 50's.  Jamaica with Cigars instead of pot (and probably a little pot too).

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Tourism will be back soon enough, and they'll realize they've missed out on over 50 years of boom.

[Padfoot]

I don't think you'll see either war or instant democracy once Fidel dies.  Raul seems to be a bit more open to at least talking respectfully with US officials so I definitely think there is hope for some pro-US sentiment to begin taking root.  Plus, as mentioned above, the US dollars received from re-opening tourism will be enormous especially since so many families are split between the two countries now.

[Јas]

Raul will take over, and everything will continue as is, pretty much. I hope for democracy, but you can't always get what you want.

...but if you try sometimes, you might find,
you get what you need.

(sorry...I felt compelled)

[Platypus]

A smooth transition to Raul and then onto the next guy. No weakening of the dictatorship, but an opening of the country to the west (although for a communist dictatorship its already pretty open, really). American cruise ships in Havana? Maybe, but the Cuban communists will remain for a while yet. There's not a critical mass to get rid of them, and because people are being weaned off Fidel there won't be that potential spark for change. Maybe post-raul there will be an uprising of sorts. Whatever happens, there will not be a western-style liberal democracy for a long time to come, but maybe something like Venezuala.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Interesting all this possibilities.

What will happen when Fidel will die? And maybe before.

I think that Raul would want to do something like in China for Cuba and so to be a little bit more open-minded with USA.

But I also think that Chavez will never let Cuba taking the way of the USA. Losing Cuba would be too important for the international and national strategy of Chavez who try to establish a big network around him in Latin America.

Cuba hasn't resources in its ground but it has educated peoples, and some important educated peoples who are... doctors. Cuban doctors are very important in national and international strategy of Chavez, because in all these poor countries of Latin America influenced by Chavez, peoples need doctors, and the one who carry them doctors, Chavez, is popular to them. Plus, Venezuela has resources (oil, gas) needed by Cuba.

Losing Cuba would be a too important weakness in his own area for Chavez and his projects and ambitions, and I think he'll never accept it.

Cuba could be one of the hot spots of the planet when the follower of Fidel will have the whole power.

[minionofmidas]

I apologize for calling Dean "Fern".

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Raul will take over, and everything will continue as is, pretty much. I hope for democracy, but you can't always get what you want.

...but if you try sometimes, you might find,
you get what you need.

(sorry...I felt compelled)

Right on!

[defe07]

I've always had a strong feeling about the trade embargo and I think we need to get rid of it. Eventually, Fidel will die and chances are that Raúl will be his successor. We need to talk to Cuba and get rid of the embargo so that way the Cuban people can have a choice between free markets and controlled markets.

[Silent Hunter]

I've always had a strong feeling about the trade embargo and I think we need to get rid of it. Eventually, Fidel will die and chances are that Raúl will be his successor. We need to talk to Cuba and get rid of the embargo so that way the Cuban people can have a choice between free markets and controlled markets.

Get rid of the embargo, in return for democratisation- first. Any other way just gives the Cuban government more money for repression.

[defe07]

I've always had a strong feeling about the trade embargo and I think we need to get rid of it. Eventually, Fidel will die and chances are that Raúl will be his successor. We need to talk to Cuba and get rid of the embargo so that way the Cuban people can have a choice between free markets and controlled markets.

Get rid of the embargo, in return for democratisation- first. Any other way just gives the Cuban government more money for repression.

Oops, forgot about the democratization part. We should make a deal with them: we get rid of the embargo if you get back on the road to democracy. Thanks man for your reminder.

[Silent Hunter]

I've always had a strong feeling about the trade embargo and I think we need to get rid of it. Eventually, Fidel will die and chances are that Raúl will be his successor. We need to talk to Cuba and get rid of the embargo so that way the Cuban people can have a choice between free markets and controlled markets.

Get rid of the embargo, in return for democratisation- first. Any other way just gives the Cuban government more money for repression.

Oops, forgot about the democratization part. We should make a deal with them: we get rid of the embargo if you get back on the road to democracy. Thanks man for your reminder.

No problem. Make sure that they're actually doing it first.

[MODU]

The day Castro dies is the day the US sends a letter to Raul, proposing formal relations with the nation in exchange for setting up the regional Hurricane center.  The center would provide high-tech and medium-level jobs for those on the island that truly need it while giving the island some well-needed respect.  The joint agreement will lead to a cooling of the tension between the two nations, while Raul keeps the island as a semi-dictatorship.  In a decade's time, if conditions between the two nations stay luke-warm, you would see all barriers to trade and commerce removed.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Bump

[Jake]

Raul Castro will take over. Everything would be the same in my mind anyway.

And following Castro I can see steady democratization and the lifting of the embargo under regime officials who maintain enough control to prevent businesses from turning Cuba into a Caribbean fiefdom.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I want to keep this thread going, so I'm bumping it.

[© tweed]

I want to keep this thread going, so I'm bumping it.

yeah, because the last bump did so well...

there are better and more covert ways to pad your post count.  so drop this scheme.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I want to keep this thread going, so I'm bumping it.

yeah, because the last bump did so well...

there are better and more covert ways to pad your post count.  so drop this scheme.

I'm not trying to pad my post count.  Castro is 82 years old and very sick.  He could die, and I think it is relevant to the US, since Cuba is only 90 miles away from our coastline.