Can McCain defeat Obama?

[nick]

Probably a 60/40 chance of defeating Obama.  50/50 of defeating Hillary.  If age and health becomes a big factor he'd have a little less than 50/50 chance of defeating both.

[J. J.]

Probably a 60/40 chance of defeating Obama.  50/50 of defeating Hillary.  If age and health becomes a big factor he'd have a little less than 50/50 chance of defeating both.

I think you've gotten it right.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

So, this would basically be 2000 redux.

But, With Florida replaced by Nevada and Colorado

and New Hampshire being replaced with Wisconsin

and with Arkansas being dem.

This is what I can see-



This time, it could go brokered if Mac takes CO and HllDawg takes NV. 

[jeron]

McCain against Obama will produce the same disastrous results for the democrats. as Bush vs Dukakis in '88. Obama should've waited four more years. It should look something like this.

[J. J.]

McCain against Obama will produce the same disastrous results for the democrats. as Bush vs Dukakis in '88. Obama should've waited four more years.

For a guy with seven posts, you show a great deal of wisdom. 

[Gabu]

For a guy with seven posts, you show a great deal of wisdom.

Since when does making posts here make you wiser?    In my experience it makes you either dumber or more cynical (or both).

[jeron]

For a guy with seven posts, you show a great deal of wisdom. 

This has nothing to do with wisdom. You can just see the similarities to 1988. There's this liberal from a Democratic state against an older moderate Republican.

[Democratic Hawk]

For a guy with seven posts, you show a great deal of wisdom. 

This has nothing to do with wisdom. You can just see the similarities to 1988. There's this liberal from a Democratic state against an older moderate Republican.

For the Republican Party to nominate a moderate, rather than a conservative, as its presidential nominee, smacks of insincerity. Most Republicans, after all, are not moderates

Dave

[InsaneTrollLogic]

For a guy with seven posts, you show a great deal of wisdom. 

This has nothing to do with wisdom. You can just see the similarities to 1988. There's this liberal from a Democratic state against an older moderate Republican.

Though HW was moderate enough to appoint a SCOTUS where Roe would be upheld, even when he had the chance to obliterate it.

[Smid]

For the Republican Party to nominate a moderate, rather than a conservative, as its presidential nominee, smacks of insincerity. Most Republicans, after all, are not moderates

Dave

It's not insincerity to nominate a moderate - it is just a further hurdle for McCain to be nominated. It's not the party trying to con the public - McCain is his own person and would make his own decisions irrespective of the ideological position of the majority of party members. If more conservative members of the Republican Party thought they could exert influence over an elected moderate Republican President, then "Shares Our Values" wouldn't be as important a factor in vote casting in the primaries as electability would be.

[TheGlobalizer]

Most people who vote for either party are moderates.  The debate is framed by the extremists.

[Smid]

Most people who vote for either party are moderates.  The debate is framed by the extremists.

Quite so... I've heard it said that you need to be an extremist to win the Primary, a moderate to win the General.

You need to be in the extreme wing of your respective party to draw out the party base in order to win the nomination, which results in the least-electible candidate winning each party's primary vote. It takes a moderate to draw out independents and swinging voters to vote during the general election - precisely the person who typically doesn't win the primary... the irony of it all...

[auburntiger]

Ya know, I gotta be honest. It's hard NOT to like Obama...as a person. I've been reading about him lately, and I do like the guy. I can definitely see him winning the GE. Here's my new map of Obama/? vs. McCain/?



Obama needs to pick a WASP as his VP...Ben Nelson (D-NE) comes to mind, as he could help win over moderate votes. Maybe Mike Easley (D-NC), maybe Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Battlegrounds: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Florida.
NOTE: these 8 states will be the ones focused on the most by both parties during the last two weeks of the election.

Nevada - close in 2004, will be close in 2008. Trending Dem on the presidential level. If Obama wins the popular vote, he wins here - Democrat.

New Mexico - a true swing state. It will follow the direction the country is headed - Democrat.

Colorado - alot like Nevada, except it's slightly more Republican on the national level, although trending Dem on the state level. Colorado Dems don't seem as whacked out as the ones on the West Coast and northeast, while the Republicans here aren't as "whacked out" as the ones in the South. McCain is a perfect fit for these Republicans, even as they still hold party registration advantage. Colorado will be very tight though as Dems continue to strengthen here - Republican.

Iowa - also a true swing state. Obama did very well in the primary. Turnout in numbers for him was huge. Should be the same in November - Democrat.

Missouri - always a bellweather. It has voted for the winner in every presidential election in the 20th century except 1956. Also, Democrats don't win without it. In some elections, it leaned slightly right of the national average. In some, it leaned slightly left. People should look here as a microcosm for the nation as a whole. African-Americans will turn out in droves in Kansas City and St. Louis, and I expect Obama to flip a few counties - Boone, for one (U of M), and maybe some in the southeast and north central - enough to squeak by - Democrat.

Wisconsin - Republicans will fall short as always...the end - Democrat.

Ohio - Trending Dem at the presidential level from 2000 to 2004. They kicked out DeWine and elected a Dem governor by landslide proportions. However, polls show McCain doing pretty well here. However, since the Republicans don't win without this state, although they could lose the election and still win here, I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins by less than 1% - Democrat.

Florida - the Republicans are doing quite well in the sunshine state. They won in 2000, had a larger than expected victory in 2004, they won the governor's mansion in 2006, and the governor endorsed McCain. Alot of older people live in south Florida and like McCain...he's one of them. The panhandle will be as Republican as usual, McCain might offest Obama in south Florida, especially Broward and Palm Beach, and maybe Dade counties. Florida is always fools gold for Dems just like Wisonsin and Pennsylvania are for Republicans. McCain by 2-3% - Republican.

Virginia - the NEW battleground. This state wasn't even on the radar screen for the Dems in 2004. But, In 2004, Fairfax county goes for Kerry (1964 was the last time the county went Dem); in 2005, VA elected a Dem governor; in 2006, Allen lost a safe seat to an unknown opponent; in 2007, VA Dems took the state House and Senate; in 2008, Mark Warner will lock up & take the open senate seat possibly by a 3-2 margin; Obama defeated hillary Clinton in what was supposed to be a safe state for her by an eye-popping 2-1 margin in the primaries; Obama also led in ever single demographic group; turnout was also MASSIVE in the beltway. Republicans here are conservative and may not turnout as much for McCain. All of these signs point to a Dem victory in the Commonwealth FL-2000 style. Expect a recount here - Democrat.

OBAMA/? wins 313-225

Other states that won't be in play come the last week of the election, but might be closer than people think: Tennessee, North Carolina, Minnesota (GOP convention?/Pawlenty VP?), Kansas (Obama's mother/governor's endorsement), Montana, Idaho, Indiana, Connecticut & New Jersey (moderate Republicans)


any constructive criticism of my analysis is welcome...

[Vasall des Midas]

Of course.

Can Obama defeat McCain?

Of course.

[Senator Sbane]

Ya know, I gotta be honest. It's hard NOT to like Obama...as a person. I've been reading about him lately, and I do like the guy. I can definitely see him winning the GE. Here's my new map of Obama/? vs. McCain/?



Obama needs to pick a WASP as his VP...Ben Nelson (D-NE) comes to mind, as he could help win over moderate votes. Maybe Mike Easley (D-NC), maybe Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Battlegrounds: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Florida.
NOTE: these 8 states will be the ones focused on the most by both parties during the last two weeks of the election.

Nevada - close in 2004, will be close in 2008. Trending Dem on the presidential level. If Obama wins the popular vote, he wins here - Democrat.

New Mexico - a true swing state. It will follow the direction the country is headed - Democrat.

Colorado - alot like Nevada, except it's slightly more Republican on the national level, although trending Dem on the state level. Colorado Dems don't seem as whacked out as the ones on the West Coast and northeast, while the Republicans here aren't as "whacked out" as the ones in the South. McCain is a perfect fit for these Republicans, even as they still hold party registration advantage. Colorado will be very tight though as Dems continue to strengthen here - Republican.

Iowa - also a true swing state. Obama did very well in the primary. Turnout in numbers for him was huge. Should be the same in November - Democrat.

Missouri - always a bellweather. It has voted for the winner in every presidential election in the 20th century except 1956. Also, Democrats don't win without it. In some elections, it leaned slightly right of the national average. In some, it leaned slightly left. People should look here as a microcosm for the nation as a whole. African-Americans will turn out in droves in Kansas City and St. Louis, and I expect Obama to flip a few counties - Boone, for one (U of M), and maybe some in the southeast and north central - enough to squeak by - Democrat.

Wisconsin - Republicans will fall short as always...the end - Democrat.

Ohio - Trending Dem at the presidential level from 2000 to 2004. They kicked out DeWine and elected a Dem governor by landslide proportions. However, polls show McCain doing pretty well here. However, since the Republicans don't win without this state, although they could lose the election and still win here, I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins by less than 1% - Democrat.

Florida - the Republicans are doing quite well in the sunshine state. They won in 2000, had a larger than expected victory in 2004, they won the governor's mansion in 2006, and the governor endorsed McCain. Alot of older people live in south Florida and like McCain...he's one of them. The panhandle will be as Republican as usual, McCain might offest Obama in south Florida, especially Broward and Palm Beach, and maybe Dade counties. Florida is always fools gold for Dems just like Wisonsin and Pennsylvania are for Republicans. McCain by 2-3% - Republican.

Virginia - the NEW battleground. This state wasn't even on the radar screen for the Dems in 2004. But, In 2004, Fairfax county goes for Kerry (1964 was the last time the county went Dem); in 2005, VA elected a Dem governor; in 2006, Allen lost a safe seat to an unknown opponent; in 2007, VA Dems took the state House and Senate; in 2008, Mark Warner will lock up & take the open senate seat possibly by a 3-2 margin; Obama defeated hillary Clinton in what was supposed to be a safe state for her by an eye-popping 2-1 margin in the primaries; Obama also led in ever single demographic group; turnout was also MASSIVE in the beltway. Republicans here are conservative and may not turnout as much for McCain. All of these signs point to a Dem victory in the Commonwealth FL-2000 style. Expect a recount here - Democrat.

OBAMA/? wins 313-225

Other states that won't be in play come the last week of the election, but might be closer than people think: Tennessee, North Carolina, Minnesota (GOP convention?/Pawlenty VP?), Kansas (Obama's mother/governor's endorsement), Montana, Idaho, Indiana, Connecticut & New Jersey (moderate Republicans)


any constructive criticism of my analysis is welcome...

If Colorado liked Mccain so much why did he get trounced by Romney? The moderates you are talking about live in the Denver suburbs and they turned out to vote for Obama, just look at the difference in votes between democrats and republicans there. The main republican base in Colorado is now colorado springs and eastern colorado, very conservative parts of the nation, and not favorable to Mccain. Thus in an Obama vs Mccain matchup, Obama wins. Clinton vs Mccain though will lead to those moderates in the suburbs voting for Mccain and thus a republican victory.

[auburntiger]

this is true. I didn't even think about that. However, Romney has endorsed McCain, and Colorado's delegates will go to him, not that that matters or anything. McCain has some regional appeal too being from neighboring Arizona. That's one of the reasons why I projected him the winner there. You may very well be correct on Colorado. However, I thought my toughest race to call was virginia. Maybe I should switch the two

[Gustaf]

I agree with Lewis.

But it's hard to tell how things will play out this far out. It seems though, judging from the polls we've seen, that the election will be decided more by Obama than by McCain if you know what I mean.

[Senator Sbane]

this is true. I didn't even think about that. However, Romney has endorsed McCain, and Colorado's delegates will go to him, not that that matters or anything. McCain has some regional appeal too being from neighboring Arizona. That's one of the reasons why I projected him the winner there. You may very well be correct on Colorado. However, I thought my toughest race to call was virginia. Maybe I should switch the two

You are right that VA is tough to call and I would add MO to that list. They seem like states divided demographically. Both of those states have areas that are very southern and unfavorable for Obama. Yet they both have sprawling urban areas which like Obama so I expect results very similar to the 2006 races in those states. I will give the edge to Obama but it wont surprise me if Mccain wins. Obama is strong in the west because of independents and that is why Mccain may not win in NV or CO.

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain is his own person and would make his own decisions irrespective of the ideological position of the majority of party members.

I'm not so sure about that as I once might have been. His fawning all over conservatives at CPAC was enough to make me wanna puke - and some of them still didn't buy it!

If McCain wins, he might not even dare be his own man and if he does then I just don't see him getting an easy ride, despite the show of unity, from more putridy ideological congressional Republicans. It will be payback for all those times he's rubbed their faces in it to carry favor with the liberal media

I, of course, have endorsed the much more humble Sen. Barack Obama. Unlike Senator Clinton, he doesn't think he's entitled to the Democratic Party's presidential nomination

But as far as McCain goes, well, it's eight years too late. Bush has run American prestige into the ground and I'll never forgive him for it

Can McCain defeat Obama? Of course, but as someone who desires closure on Bush (and McCain can't guarantee that), I hope not

Dave

[auburntiger]

this is true. I didn't even think about that. However, Romney has endorsed McCain, and Colorado's delegates will go to him, not that that matters or anything. McCain has some regional appeal too being from neighboring Arizona. That's one of the reasons why I projected him the winner there. You may very well be correct on Colorado. However, I thought my toughest race to call was virginia. Maybe I should switch the two

You are right that VA is tough to call and I would add MO to that list. They seem like states divided demographically. Both of those states have areas that are very southern and unfavorable for Obama. Yet they both have sprawling urban areas which like Obama so I expect results very similar to the 2006 races in those states. I will give the edge to Obama but it wont surprise me if Mccain wins. Obama is strong in the west because of independents and that is why Mccain may not win in NV or CO.

there are also alot of independents in Arizona too, although it's obvious that state won't be up for grabs. Let's not forget that McCain is also strong among independents and the West is his home turf. If it were any other candidate but McCain, I would probably concede Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and MAYBE even Arizona.

[Senator Sbane]

this is true. I didn't even think about that. However, Romney has endorsed McCain, and Colorado's delegates will go to him, not that that matters or anything. McCain has some regional appeal too being from neighboring Arizona. That's one of the reasons why I projected him the winner there. You may very well be correct on Colorado. However, I thought my toughest race to call was virginia. Maybe I should switch the two

You are right that VA is tough to call and I would add MO to that list. They seem like states divided demographically. Both of those states have areas that are very southern and unfavorable for Obama. Yet they both have sprawling urban areas which like Obama so I expect results very similar to the 2006 races in those states. I will give the edge to Obama but it wont surprise me if Mccain wins. Obama is strong in the west because of independents and that is why Mccain may not win in NV or CO.

there are also alot of independents in Arizona too, although it's obvious that state won't be up for grabs. Let's not forget that McCain is also strong among independents and the West is his home turf. If it were any other candidate but McCain, I would probably concede Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and MAYBE even Arizona.

The west will be the most interesting region for me if it comes down to Mccain and Obama. Like you pointed out they have similar strengths among independents and the west is home territory for Mac. But I feel the reason Mccain is doing so well in the polls is because many people see him as the anti-bush and this goes back to 2000. Thus it will be up to the democrats to show the country how pro-iraq Mccain really is and I also feel Mccain will have to flip-flop on some issues to appease his base, and will further weaken him in the GE.

[RRB]

"More of the same", and "4 more years of Bush"  will be the theme this year.  McCain has no chance of winning against Obama.  Clinton maybe, but not Obama.

Most people don't understand politics to any great depth, but they do know that Obama is a breath of fresh air.

Reagan won by talking about a "new morning in America".  Obama is generating a feeling in people that they can once again be proud of America.  Something that has slipped away under republican/Bush rule.  John McCain will be paired with Bush until we will think that he IS Bush.   He won't lose in a landslide, but he will be a victim of a craving for change - simple as that.

[Aizen]

"More of the same", and "4 more years of Bush"  will be the theme this year.  McCain has no chance of winning against Obama.  Clinton maybe, but not Obama.

Most people don't understand politics to any great depth, but they do know that Obama is a breath of fresh air.

Reagan won by talking about a "new morning in America".  Obama is generating a feeling in people that they can once again be proud of America.  Something that has slipped away under republican/Bush rule.  John McCain will be paired with Bush until we will think that he IS Bush.   He won't lose in a landslide, but he will be a victim of a craving for change - simple as that.

Come on now... Obama is not a lock to win against McCain. Let's not get deluded here. McCain is going to be tough to beat no matter how you slice it.

[NDN]

Come on now... Obama is not a lock to win against McCain. Let's not get deluded here. McCain is going to be tough to beat no matter how you slice it.

[The Hack Hater]

No way. The majority of Americans, besides being tired of the war in Iraq, want a candidate that they see as a breath of fresh air. As long as Obama is able to defend himself well against the vicious attacks the Republicans will unleash on him(especially if they're stupid enough to put race-baiting in their ads) the election is his.