Ya know, I gotta be honest. It's hard NOT to like Obama...as a person. I've been reading about him lately, and I do like the guy. I can definitely see him winning the GE. Here's my new map of Obama/? vs. McCain/?
Obama needs to pick a WASP as his VP...Ben Nelson (D-NE) comes to mind, as he could help win over moderate votes. Maybe Mike Easley (D-NC), maybe Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Battlegrounds: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Florida.
NOTE: these 8 states will be the ones focused on the most by both parties during the last two weeks of the election.
Nevada - close in 2004, will be close in 2008. Trending Dem on the presidential level. If Obama wins the popular vote, he wins here -
Democrat.
New Mexico - a true swing state. It will follow the direction the country is headed -
Democrat.
Colorado - alot like Nevada, except it's slightly more Republican on the national level, although trending Dem on the state level. Colorado Dems don't seem as whacked out as the ones on the West Coast and northeast, while the Republicans here aren't as "whacked out" as the ones in the South. McCain is a perfect fit for these Republicans, even as they still hold party registration advantage. Colorado will be very tight though as Dems continue to strengthen here -
Republican.
Iowa - also a true swing state. Obama did very well in the primary. Turnout in numbers for him was huge. Should be the same in November -
Democrat.
Missouri - always a bellweather. It has voted for the winner in every presidential election in the 20th century except 1956. Also, Democrats don't win without it. In some elections, it leaned slightly right of the national average. In some, it leaned slightly left. People should look here as a microcosm for the nation as a whole. African-Americans will turn out in droves in Kansas City and St. Louis, and I expect Obama to flip a few counties - Boone, for one (U of M), and maybe some in the southeast and north central - enough to squeak by -
Democrat.
Wisconsin - Republicans will fall short as always...the end -
Democrat.
Ohio - Trending Dem at the presidential level from 2000 to 2004. They kicked out DeWine and elected a Dem governor by landslide proportions. However, polls show McCain doing pretty well here. However, since the Republicans don't win without this state, although they could lose the election and still win here, I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins by less than 1% -
Democrat.
Florida - the Republicans are doing quite well in the sunshine state. They won in 2000, had a larger than expected victory in 2004, they won the governor's mansion in 2006, and the governor endorsed McCain. Alot of older people live in south Florida and like McCain...he's one of them. The panhandle will be as Republican as usual, McCain might offest Obama in south Florida, especially Broward and Palm Beach, and maybe Dade counties. Florida is always fools gold for Dems just like Wisonsin and Pennsylvania are for Republicans. McCain by 2-3% -
Republican.
Virginia - the NEW battleground. This state wasn't even on the radar screen for the Dems in 2004. But, In 2004, Fairfax county goes for Kerry (1964 was the last time the county went Dem); in 2005, VA elected a Dem governor; in 2006, Allen lost a safe seat to an unknown opponent; in 2007, VA Dems took the state House and Senate; in 2008, Mark Warner will lock up & take the open senate seat possibly by a 3-2 margin; Obama defeated hillary Clinton in what was supposed to be a safe state for her by an eye-popping 2-1 margin in the primaries; Obama also led in ever single demographic group; turnout was also MASSIVE in the beltway. Republicans here are conservative and may not turnout as much for McCain. All of these signs point to a Dem victory in the Commonwealth FL-2000 style. Expect a recount here -
Democrat.
OBAMA/? wins 313-225
Other states that won't be in play come the last week of the election, but might be closer than people think: Tennessee, North Carolina, Minnesota (GOP convention?/Pawlenty VP?), Kansas (Obama's mother/governor's endorsement), Montana, Idaho, Indiana, Connecticut & New Jersey (moderate Republicans)
any constructive criticism of my analysis is welcome...
