2008 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

By-elections will be held on March 17 in the following ridings

*Toronto Centre (Ontario).
*Willowdale (Ontario).
*Vancouver Quadra (British Columbia).
*Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan).

The first 3 are safe Liberal seats, the last one has a history of going Liberal, Conservative or NDP.

Unfortunately, the election in Toronto Centre will see the election of Bob Rae

[ottermax]

Was the Sask. riding extremely close in the last election?

[Verily]

Was the Sask. riding extremely close in the last election?

It was indeed, but it's also a huge, extremely rural riding, the sort where loyalty is to incumbent and not party, and thus it routinely sees wild and unpredictable swings (at least from polls) when it opens up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Was the Sask. riding extremely close in the last election?

It was indeed, but it's also a huge, extremely rural riding, the sort where loyalty is to incumbent and not party, and thus it routinely sees wild and unpredictable swings (at least from polls) when it opens up.

It wasn't incumbent friendly last time, as it was one of the few (only?) ridings in the country to go from Conservative to Liberal. The 2006 election saw the Liberals win by 67 votes, and there was a lot of controversy about it being rigged.

[Hatman 🍁]

It ditched a sitting MP two elections in a row. How can you call that incumbent friendly?

Ok sure, Laliberte was able to get re-elected in 2000 after switching parties, but his attempt to run as an independent in 2004 was foiled.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not really incumbent friendly, but we'll have to wait until we know who the candidates are before predicting anything.

[Verily]

It ditched a sitting MP two elections in a row. How can you call that incumbent friendly?

Ok sure, Laliberte was able to get re-elected in 2000 after switching parties, but his attempt to run as an independent in 2004 was foiled.

I didn't call it incumbent friendly. Just liable to switch parties wildly when open.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It ditched a sitting MP two elections in a row. How can you call that incumbent friendly?

Ok sure, Laliberte was able to get re-elected in 2000 after switching parties, but his attempt to run as an independent in 2004 was foiled.

I didn't call it incumbent friendly. Just liable to switch parties wildly when open.

Only federally. Provincially it's solidly Dipper.

[Hatman 🍁]

It ditched a sitting MP two elections in a row. How can you call that incumbent friendly?

Ok sure, Laliberte was able to get re-elected in 2000 after switching parties, but his attempt to run as an independent in 2004 was foiled.

I didn't call it incumbent friendly. Just liable to switch parties wildly when open.

Only federally. Provincially it's solidly Dipper.

Well, the north part. The southern fringe is more right wing.

[Hash]

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River provincially, 2007. Not the exact same boundaries oc and I might have missed one or two

Athabasca: NDP 59.47, SASK 31.53, LIB 5.75, GRN 3.24
Cumberland: NDP 66.12, SASK 22.12, GRN 6.24, LIB 5.52
Lloydminster: SASK 61.29, NDP 36.78, LIB 1.93
Meadow Lake: SASK 48.75, NDP 48.51, LIB 2.74
Saskatchewan Rivers: SASK 54.81, NDP 41.32, LIB 3.88
Carrot River Valley: SASK 61.74, NDP 33.19, LIB 5.07
SASK 4, NDP 2

2003: NDP 4, SASK 2

Any 2006 federal poll-by-poll results map for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?

[Hatman 🍁]

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River provincially, 2007. Not the exact same boundaries oc and I might have missed one or two

Athabasca: NDP 59.47, SASK 31.53, LIB 5.75, GRN 3.24
Cumberland: NDP 66.12, SASK 22.12, GRN 6.24, LIB 5.52
Lloydminster: SASK 61.29, NDP 36.78, LIB 1.93
Meadow Lake: SASK 48.75, NDP 48.51, LIB 2.74
Saskatchewan Rivers: SASK 54.81, NDP 41.32, LIB 3.88
Carrot River Valley: SASK 61.74, NDP 33.19, LIB 5.07
SASK 4, NDP 2

2003: NDP 4, SASK 2

Any 2006 federal poll-by-poll results map for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?

I tried starting it, but it drove me insane. It's way too big.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, the north part. The southern fringe is more right wing.

Don't you go a spoiling my monthly hackish post!

Not the exact same boundaries oc

Nowhere near IIRC. Athabasca and Cumberland are, I think, the only two entirely inside D-M-CR (all of Meadow Lake might be as well; not sure).

[Verily]

Not the exact same boundaries oc

Nowhere near IIRC. Athabasca and Cumberland are, I think, the only two entirely inside D-M-CR (all of Meadow Lake might be as well; not sure).

Just Athabasca and Cumberland. By land area, about two-thirds of Meadow Lake, half of Carrot River Valley and a third each of Lloydminster and Saskatchewan Rivers are in it, but I don't know how that corresponds to population.

[cp]

There's something of a tempest brewing for the Liberal nomination in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River between Ralph Goodale's supporters and David Orchard's campaign, who supported Dion in the leadership convention. Dion's pretty burned about selecting his own candidates because of Outremont, but Orchard's got ground support in the riding that Goodale doesn't. Goodale's also trying to court the same woman the NDP is courting for their candidate.

Needless to say, this riding will be the one to watch on the 17th, assuming there isn't a general election beforehand which is looking more and more likely every day.

[Hatman 🍁]

David Orchard is running? That's funny.

[Hash]

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River provincially, 2007. Not the exact same boundaries oc and I might have missed one or two

Athabasca: NDP 59.47, SASK 31.53, LIB 5.75, GRN 3.24
Cumberland: NDP 66.12, SASK 22.12, GRN 6.24, LIB 5.52
Lloydminster: SASK 61.29, NDP 36.78, LIB 1.93
Meadow Lake: SASK 48.75, NDP 48.51, LIB 2.74
Saskatchewan Rivers: SASK 54.81, NDP 41.32, LIB 3.88
Carrot River Valley: SASK 61.74, NDP 33.19, LIB 5.07
SASK 4, NDP 2

2003: NDP 4, SASK 2

Any 2006 federal poll-by-poll results map for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?

I tried starting it, but it drove me insane. It's way too big.

If you could give me a blank map of the polls, I could attempt doing one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River provincially, 2007. Not the exact same boundaries oc and I might have missed one or two

Athabasca: NDP 59.47, SASK 31.53, LIB 5.75, GRN 3.24
Cumberland: NDP 66.12, SASK 22.12, GRN 6.24, LIB 5.52
Lloydminster: SASK 61.29, NDP 36.78, LIB 1.93
Meadow Lake: SASK 48.75, NDP 48.51, LIB 2.74
Saskatchewan Rivers: SASK 54.81, NDP 41.32, LIB 3.88
Carrot River Valley: SASK 61.74, NDP 33.19, LIB 5.07
SASK 4, NDP 2

2003: NDP 4, SASK 2

Any 2006 federal poll-by-poll results map for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?

I tried starting it, but it drove me insane. It's way too big.

If you could give me a blank map of the polls, I could attempt doing one.

There's no one map, you have to paste together like 300 maps or something.

[cp]

Will the provincial voting patterns really give much indication to the by-election campaign or result? The last three proved, if anything, that the ground campaigns matter more than ancient voting patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

The MLA in Cumberland may be the Liberal candidate, which would ruin the NDP's chances there. Actually, a David Orchard candidacy may be the same, unless one of the other parties nominates a well known aboriginal. 

[Kevinstat]

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

[Verily]

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most NDPers in Saskatchewan are fairly moderate anyways. He'd fit in well with the party, but I'm not sure if he'd be interested.

On a different note, I thought I'd give everyone a christmas present and post the Outremont by-election map. Enjoy

[danny]

Most NDPers in Saskatchewan are fairly moderate anyways. He'd fit in well with the party, but I'm not sure if he'd be interested.

On a different note, I thought I'd give everyone a christmas present and post the Outremont by-election map. Enjoy

I saw on wikipedia that there is a large hasidic population in Outremont so i'm wondering if that 70-80% NDP area is where they live since hasids tend to vote monolithically.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most NDPers in Saskatchewan are fairly moderate anyways. He'd fit in well with the party, but I'm not sure if he'd be interested.

On a different note, I thought I'd give everyone a christmas present and post the Outremont by-election map. Enjoy

I saw on wikipedia that there is a large hasidic population in Outremont so i'm wondering if that 70-80% NDP area is where they live since hasids tend to vote monolithically.

I think they live in the Liberal areas, where the Liberals got 60%+ I cant see the hasidic jews voting NDP. It's been along time since Jews voted NDP/CCF en masse, although that was certainly the case during the interwar period.

[Verily]

I believe the heavily NDP area in the north is actually heavily Bloquiste most of the time while the heavily NDP area in the south-center is always heavily NDP, even when they lose badly.