2008 Canadian by-elections
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cp
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« Reply #25 on: December 26, 2007, 12:15:20 AM »

The Hasidim live in the northeast of the riding. It's not in the heaviest NDP-voting region (that's the Plateau and Mile End) but just a little north of there in the very long and thin catchment areas (sorry, can't think of the term for those jurisdictional boundaries) where NDP support isn't as strong.

The heaviest Liberal areas are the Plateau and Centreville in the south and the immigrant enclaves in the north - Jamaicans, Italians, and Portuguese, mostly.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #26 on: December 26, 2007, 12:59:40 AM »

The areas where the NDP polled the highest in the north part of the riding (Mile-End) was where the NDP polled the highest in the 2006 election. The rest of the orange areas voted Bloc last time, and so you can see the huge swing towards the NDP.
The Hasidim live in the northeast of the riding. It's not in the heaviest NDP-voting region (that's the Plateau and Mile End) but just a little north of there in the very long and thin catchment areas (sorry, can't think of the term for those jurisdictional boundaries) where NDP support isn't as strong.

The heaviest Liberal areas are the Plateau and Centreville in the south and the immigrant enclaves in the north - Jamaicans, Italians, and Portuguese, mostly.

So, you're saying the Hasidic areas voted NDP inspite of it being Hasidic?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #27 on: December 26, 2007, 06:00:53 AM »

The areas where the NDP polled the highest in the north part of the riding (Mile-End) was where the NDP polled the highest in the 2006 election. The rest of the orange areas voted Bloc last time, and so you can see the huge swing towards the NDP.
The Hasidim live in the northeast of the riding. It's not in the heaviest NDP-voting region (that's the Plateau and Mile End) but just a little north of there in the very long and thin catchment areas (sorry, can't think of the term for those jurisdictional boundaries) where NDP support isn't as strong.

The heaviest Liberal areas are the Plateau and Centreville in the south and the immigrant enclaves in the north - Jamaicans, Italians, and Portuguese, mostly.

So, you're saying the Hasidic areas voted NDP inspite of it being Hasidic?
He's saying they didn't vote monolithically.
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cp
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« Reply #28 on: December 26, 2007, 12:14:30 PM »

I have no breakdown patterns for the areas in question so I have no idea whether or not the Hasidim voted as a bloc. My best guess is that most of them didn't bother to turn out (only 25K voted out of a typical total of 40K) and that those who did voted Liberal or NDP based on how much they liked Mulcair.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #29 on: December 28, 2007, 11:53:17 PM »

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

I remember reading during the last campaign that the NDP in Desjarlais's constituency had selected another candidate but that Deslarlais had not been kicked out of the NDP caucus (although perhaps she didn't leave the caucus when she decided to run as an Independent and then she was kicked out).
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Verily
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« Reply #30 on: December 29, 2007, 12:00:33 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2007, 12:02:36 AM by Verily »

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

I remember reading during the last campaign that the NDP in Desjarlais's constituency had selected another candidate but that Deslarlais had not been kicked out of the NDP caucus (although perhaps she didn't leave the caucus when she decided to run as an Independent and then she was kicked out).

Well, she was essentially kicked out; stripping her of all privileges after the same-sex marriage vote was more or less a go-ahead to her riding association to deselect her.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #31 on: December 29, 2007, 12:11:44 AM »

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

I remember reading during the last campaign that the NDP in Desjarlais's constituency had selected another candidate but that Deslarlais had not been kicked out of the NDP caucus (although perhaps she didn't leave the caucus when she decided to run as an Independent and then she was kicked out).

Well, she was essentially kicked out; stripping her of all privileges after the same-sex marriage vote was more or less a go-ahead to her riding association to deselect her.

She lost the nomination iirc
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #32 on: December 29, 2007, 06:09:16 AM »


...because she voted the wrong way on same sex marriage.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #33 on: December 29, 2007, 06:54:54 PM »


...because she voted the wrong way on same sex marriage.

She wasn't forced out though. She could've still won, but obviously she couldn't get enough support to win, because of her views.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #34 on: December 29, 2007, 07:29:32 PM »


What is deselection if not being forced out?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #35 on: December 30, 2007, 03:03:06 AM »


Well, she was democratically forced out then Smiley
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #36 on: January 27, 2008, 01:14:58 PM »

Well, it's Joan Beatty for the Grits in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River.  She's the NDP MLA from Cumberland who was David Orchard's main oppenent for the Liberal nomination.  She is still listed as a provencial New Democrat on Wikipedia ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_Beatty ; no provencial Liberals were elected in either of the past two general elections however, so unless they have gained a seat in a by-election or someone else defecting to them Beatty would be all alone as a Provencial Liberal).  Robert Clarke is the Conservative nominee.  Wikipedia doesn't say who New Democrats and Greens nominees (who they apparently expect to field a candidate) have nominated.  Perhaps they haven't made a choice yet, or perhaps they have and no Wikipedia user has added that yet.
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Verily
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« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2008, 08:41:58 PM »

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #38 on: January 28, 2008, 12:43:51 AM »

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).

Well, you cant be a member of the NDP and the Liberals at the same time, so I'm not sure how that is going to work. The Saskatchewan NDP is affiliated with the federal NDP, and one cannot be a member of the NDP and another party at the same time.
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Verily
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« Reply #39 on: January 28, 2008, 01:08:05 AM »

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).

Well, you cant be a member of the NDP and the Liberals at the same time, so I'm not sure how that is going to work. The Saskatchewan NDP is affiliated with the federal NDP, and one cannot be a member of the NDP and another party at the same time.

I am fairly certain that you do not need to be a member of the Liberals to run as a Liberal candidate (for precisely this reason), though you do have to be a Liberal to sit in the HoC as a Liberal. Therefore, she will switch party memberships upon entering the HoC, should she enter the HoC.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #40 on: January 28, 2008, 03:07:36 PM »

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).

Well, you cant be a member of the NDP and the Liberals at the same time, so I'm not sure how that is going to work. The Saskatchewan NDP is affiliated with the federal NDP, and one cannot be a member of the NDP and another party at the same time.

I am fairly certain that you do not need to be a member of the Liberals to run as a Liberal candidate (for precisely this reason), though you do have to be a Liberal to sit in the HoC as a Liberal. Therefore, she will switch party memberships upon entering the HoC, should she enter the HoC.

Hmm, I'm not sure, but something about that doesn't seem correct.
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cp
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« Reply #41 on: January 29, 2008, 04:12:30 AM »

What's the impact that David Orchard is going to have on the race? Will he depress Liberal turnout enough for the Conservatives to take it?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #42 on: January 29, 2008, 10:54:59 AM »

What's the impact that David Orchard is going to have on the race? Will he depress Liberal turnout enough for the Conservatives to take it?

Why would he have any impact?
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cp
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« Reply #43 on: January 29, 2008, 11:42:39 AM »

It was my understanding that he was making a fuss about getting passed over for the nomination. The way the media portrayed it, it looked like he had at least partial support in the riding from his own network. Knowing his maverick style of politics, I could see him running as an independent or just telling his supporters to stay home. Considering how close the race was last time, it could easily effect the outcome.

Alternatively, will Joan Beatty's NDP past bring back some of those votes to the Liberals?
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #44 on: March 01, 2008, 08:53:36 PM »

Joan Beatty has resigned as MLA for Cumberland, perhaps because she couldn't be an NDP MLA and federal Liberal candidate (some here beleive that to be true it seems) and didn't want to leave the party without resigning her seat.  Plus she may be confident of victory in the federal by-election.  Anyway, there is apparently a dispute over who should pay the cost of the by-election that will have to be called for Cumberland if it hasn't already.  The Saskatchewan Party is calling on the NDP to pay the cost, and there are questions as to when former Premeir and apparently still Sask. NDP leader Lorne Calvert knew Beatty was going to step down (like if he knew or suspected she was going to run when his party reselected her for last November's provincial general election, I get the sense).  Calvert claims he didn't think Beatty was serious about running, and points out that the Saskatchewan Party didn't pay the cost of a by-election in Weygrand which was caused by the resignation of one of their MLA's.  That guy might have served more than seven weeks of his term however. Smiley  You can read the article at http://www.newstalk650.com/incoming/20080107/ndp-will-not-pay-byelection-cost .
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Hash
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« Reply #45 on: March 02, 2008, 03:59:56 PM »

My mom randomly received this email from the Canadian embassy in Riyadh (even though they know we don't live there anymore), shows the incompetence of Foreign Affairs Canada.

Anyways, it contained a list of candidates:

ONTARIO / ONTARIO

TORONTO CENTRE / TORONTO-CENTRE

KHAKI, El-Farouk
New Democratic Party / Nouveau Parti démocratique

MEREDITH, Donald
Conservative Party of Canada / Parti conservateur du Canada

PLUMB, Doug
Canadian Action Party / Parti action canadienne

RAE, Bob
Liberal Party of Canada / Parti libéral du Canada

TINDAL, Chris
Green Party of Canada / Le Parti Vert du Canada

WHITE, Liz
Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada / Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada


 
ONTARIO / ONTARIO

WILLOWDALE

CARCASOLE, Lou
Green Party of Canada / Le Parti Vert du Canada

GHOSH, Rini
New Democratic Party / Nouveau Parti démocratique

HALL FINDLAY, Martha
Liberal Party of Canada / Parti libéral du Canada

HARQUAIL, Maureen
Conservative Party of Canada / Parti conservateur du Canada


 
SASKATCHEWAN / SASKATCHEWAN

DESNETHÉ--MISSINIPPI--CHURCHILL RIVER / DESNETHÉ--MISSINIPPI--RIVIÈRE CHURCHILL

BEATTY, Joan
Liberal Party of Canada / Parti libéral du Canada

CLARKE, Rob
Conservative Party of Canada / Parti conservateur du Canada

MORIN, Brian
New Democratic Party / Nouveau Parti démocratique

ORR, Robin
Green Party of Canada / Le Parti Vert du Canada

 

BRITISH COLUMBIA / COLOMBIE-BRITANNIQUE

VANCOUVER QUADRA

COAD, Rebecca
New Democratic Party / Nouveau Parti démocratique

FRANK, Psamuel
Canadian Action Party / Parti action canadienne

GRICE, Dan
Green Party of Canada / Le Parti Vert du Canada

MEREDITH, Deborah
Conservative Party of Canada / Parti conservateur du Canada

MURRAY, Joyce
Liberal Party of Canada / Parti libéral du Canada

TURNER, John
neorhino.ca / neorhino.ca
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #46 on: March 05, 2008, 09:26:25 PM »

Do Brian Morin (NDP) and/or Rob Clarke (Conservative) stand a chance in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?  Or is that seat safe for the Grits like the other three seats electing MPs on March 17 (it seemed to be generally agreed on this site at least that those three seats were safe for the Liberals) now that Joan Beatty is the Liberal nominee?

Also, any news on a special election date or developments in Westmount-Ville Marie?  That seems like a safe Liberal seat.  Don Valley West will become vacant on July 1 if the government (and thus the current parliament) is still in tact by then, but Harper wouldn't have to call the by-election until six months after that.  Wikipedia article on the that constituency reads, "The resulting by-election, consequently, is not necessarily required to be held before the spring of 2009" (italis theirs; removed italics from '2009').  The Wikipedia editor who wrote that is adding a generous amount of time for the by-election to be held after it is called, but it seems like it might have been over two months since the dates of these four elections were set and there are still over two weeks left.  Don Valley West also seems fairly safe for the Liberals, although it was fairly strongly held by the Progressive Conservatives before their 1993 meltdown.
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Verily
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« Reply #47 on: March 05, 2008, 09:37:15 PM »

Westmount-Ville Marie will be a big NDP target; it's one of their best Quebec ridings. But they'd need a stellar candidate to manage it.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #48 on: March 06, 2008, 12:36:28 AM »

DMCR is up in the air due to its history, but I'd say it's the Liberal's to lose.
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cp
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« Reply #49 on: March 06, 2008, 08:37:08 AM »

DMCR has an ex-NDP provincial politican running for the Liberals which should help them, as should the recent scandals in the news that have reflected badly on the Tories.

Unlike Verily, I don't agree that the NDP could win in Westmount-Ville Marie or that they should even bother making it a target. The riding is too upscale, even in its poorest sections, for the NDP to have much appeal. It's also rather weak on the soft-nationalist bloquiste vote which delivered Outremont to Mulcair in 2007.

Don Valley West is more of a decent shot for the Tories than Westmount-Ville Marie is for the NDP, though I still don't think the Tories would do well there on a federal level unless they had a star candidate. Perhaps a Cadman family member? Tongue
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