2008 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

Don Valley West will be targeted by the tories for sure, but no one in Canada could run and win for them.  I am convinced.  The NDP does have a better chance in Westmount than the tories do in DVW, but I'm not going to say that's a good chance either. I know cp has a good knowledge of the area, but I can pull out a few posts saying the NDP would never win Outremont.

[cp]

Fair enough, but weren't the NDP supposed to win 4-5 seats in Alberta and 14 seats in Ontario?

[Hatman 🍁]

Fair enough, but weren't the NDP supposed to win 4-5 seats in Alberta and 14 seats in Ontario?

Those races were stolen, I tellz ya!

[Hatman 🍁]

electionprediction.org calls Churchill River a tory pick up. Interesting...

[Hash]

Oh it's tomorrow. The French locals had me all pre-occupied.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results will be posted in 5 minutes

[Hatman 🍁]

20 polls in Toronto Centre

Rae has 60%

[Hatman 🍁]

25 polls in Churchill River. The tory candidate has 68%. wow

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP fourth place in Toronto Centre! Wow, that's a big surprise.

[Hatman 🍁]

1 poll in Willowdale. Hall Findlay leads with 65%.

Tories are down to 54% in Churchill River at 35 polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

The results from Toronto Centre must all be from Rosedale.

[Hatman 🍁]

Too close to call in Churchill River, but I will call TC for Rae and Willowdale for Hall Findlay.

Churchill River:
Conservative 49%
Liberal 33%
NDP 16%
Green 3%

55/182 polls

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is catching up in Toronto Centre

Liberal 58%
Green 14%
NDP 14%
Conservative 13%
Others 1%

115/275

[Hatman 🍁]

Results coming in for Vancouver Quadra. 1 poll in, close between the Liberal candidate and the tory.  34 votes to 31.

[Hatman 🍁]

Really close race in Vancouver Quadra. Liberals lead 38-37% with 15 polls in.

[bullmoose88]

For a Dumb Yank

Who was holding these seats prior and who was favored to win?

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals held all four seats. 3 of them were considered safe. Churchill River was only won by a handful of votes last time, and electionprediction.org predicted the conservative to win there, and it looks like they will.

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River
118/182 polls.

Conservative - 48%
Liberal - 33%
NDP - 16%
Green - 3%

[bullmoose88]

Any Updates?

[Meeker]

Shoot, forgot all about these.

Rae and Findlay have clearly won and the Tories picked up the Saskatchewan seat. Liberals lead 37-32 in Vancouver Quadra with 73% in

[Meeker]

Btw, great turnout. It's almost as bad as an American special election.

[Hash]

Happy to see Greens up everywhere and over 10% in Toronto-Centre and Quadra.

[Hash]

http://www.punditsguide.ca/index.php

Interesting.

[cp]

Well that was quite a night. I fear Earl is stalking me as his moniker changed to a Green from Ireland just as I land in the Emerald Isle for a week of vacation. Get out of my head, Earl!

Maybe it's the Guinness talking but I have some thoughts on the results. Despite succeeding in 3/4 polls this is really quite a disappointing result for the Liberals. The margin of loss in DMCR was large enough to be more than just infighting because of Orchard, though that in an of itself was a poor showing and a bad precedent for the conduct of the national campaign forthrcoming.

Equally, the margin of victory in Vancouver-Quadra was so tantalizingly low that the Liberals have to start seriously worrying about some the Tories making major inroads into their support base. If I can make a request, can someone please start on the Vancouver-Quadra results map very soon. I'm eager to see where the Liberals lost votes and where the Tories picked them up. If Dion's prognosis that it was a shift to the Greens because of the environmental issue then its probably not too dangerous. However, if its Tories making headway in immigrant communities then the Liberals are in deep trouble.

The only uniformly bright side of the night has to be the success of the Green Party apparently at the expense of the NDP. Granted, as a by-election the results are only so indicative of larger trends, but the results do carry some ominous forecasts for the NDP. Slipping from 3rd to fourth is the opposite direction they should be going, considering the weakness of the Liberals and their strategy of delivering three strikes to the Liberals for every two they give to the Tories. If the NDP is forced to change tactics to defend the flank being attacked by the Greens they will begin to stretch themselves too thin to be effective. The result, sadly, would be a loss for just about everyone save the Tories, who will still lose votes, but not in the places where the elections are close enough to make a difference.

[Verily]

These elections were clearly bad news for the Liberals and good news for the Conservatives. Perhaps most telling, and most surprising, was Vancouver Quadra: this is a safe Liberal seat historically, their only victory in 1984 west of Manitoba (although it was Turner's seat, which skewed things a bit). It should not be coming down to less than 1% in a by-election, especially not when the Liberals aren't in government.

Although some were surprised by the margin in Churchill River, I wasn't. It is very much a rural northern riding prone to wild swings and winnable for all parties with the right candidate. I wouldn't read too much into a Conservative win there by itself.

Also a great night for the Greens, who demonstrated that they can put up strong showings even when they're not in contention for victory. These by-election results help to confirm the trend of a rising Green vote.

The NDP is not in bad shape; they weren't seriously contesting any of these seats, and the fact that the Liberals looked under pressure should have been expected to dampen the NDP vote. Little news there.

The Liberals should be depressed and the Conservatives happy, but that should be the case until the Liberals kick Dion out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These elections were clearly bad news for the Liberals and good news for the Conservatives. Perhaps most telling, and most surprising, was Vancouver Quadra: this is a safe Liberal seat historically, their only victory in 1984 west of Manitoba (although it was Turner's seat, which skewed things a bit).

Ah, but here's the thing; it had actually been Tory in 1980. Turner's personal vote (lol that he had one) was the only thing that made it Liberal in the '80's.

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^^^