2008 Canadian by-elections

[Verily]

Was the Sask. riding extremely close in the last election?

It was indeed, but it's also a huge, extremely rural riding, the sort where loyalty is to incumbent and not party, and thus it routinely sees wild and unpredictable swings (at least from polls) when it opens up.

[Verily]

It ditched a sitting MP two elections in a row. How can you call that incumbent friendly?

Ok sure, Laliberte was able to get re-elected in 2000 after switching parties, but his attempt to run as an independent in 2004 was foiled.

I didn't call it incumbent friendly. Just liable to switch parties wildly when open.

[Verily]

Not the exact same boundaries oc

Nowhere near IIRC. Athabasca and Cumberland are, I think, the only two entirely inside D-M-CR (all of Meadow Lake might be as well; not sure).

Just Athabasca and Cumberland. By land area, about two-thirds of Meadow Lake, half of Carrot River Valley and a third each of Lloydminster and Saskatchewan Rivers are in it, but I don't know how that corresponds to population.

[Verily]

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

[Verily]

I believe the heavily NDP area in the north is actually heavily Bloquiste most of the time while the heavily NDP area in the south-center is always heavily NDP, even when they lose badly.

[Verily]

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

I remember reading during the last campaign that the NDP in Desjarlais's constituency had selected another candidate but that Deslarlais had not been kicked out of the NDP caucus (although perhaps she didn't leave the caucus when she decided to run as an Independent and then she was kicked out).

Well, she was essentially kicked out; stripping her of all privileges after the same-sex marriage vote was more or less a go-ahead to her riding association to deselect her.

[Verily]

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).

[Verily]

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).

Well, you cant be a member of the NDP and the Liberals at the same time, so I'm not sure how that is going to work. The Saskatchewan NDP is affiliated with the federal NDP, and one cannot be a member of the NDP and another party at the same time.

I am fairly certain that you do not need to be a member of the Liberals to run as a Liberal candidate (for precisely this reason), though you do have to be a Liberal to sit in the HoC as a Liberal. Therefore, she will switch party memberships upon entering the HoC, should she enter the HoC.

[Verily]

Westmount-Ville Marie will be a big NDP target; it's one of their best Quebec ridings. But they'd need a stellar candidate to manage it.

[Verily]

These elections were clearly bad news for the Liberals and good news for the Conservatives. Perhaps most telling, and most surprising, was Vancouver Quadra: this is a safe Liberal seat historically, their only victory in 1984 west of Manitoba (although it was Turner's seat, which skewed things a bit). It should not be coming down to less than 1% in a by-election, especially not when the Liberals aren't in government.

Although some were surprised by the margin in Churchill River, I wasn't. It is very much a rural northern riding prone to wild swings and winnable for all parties with the right candidate. I wouldn't read too much into a Conservative win there by itself.

Also a great night for the Greens, who demonstrated that they can put up strong showings even when they're not in contention for victory. These by-election results help to confirm the trend of a rising Green vote.

The NDP is not in bad shape; they weren't seriously contesting any of these seats, and the fact that the Liberals looked under pressure should have been expected to dampen the NDP vote. Little news there.

The Liberals should be depressed and the Conservatives happy, but that should be the case until the Liberals kick Dion out.