2008 Canadian by-elections

[Kevinstat]

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

[Kevinstat]

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

I remember reading during the last campaign that the NDP in Desjarlais's constituency had selected another candidate but that Deslarlais had not been kicked out of the NDP caucus (although perhaps she didn't leave the caucus when she decided to run as an Independent and then she was kicked out).

[Kevinstat]

Well, it's Joan Beatty for the Grits in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River.  She's the NDP MLA from Cumberland who was David Orchard's main oppenent for the Liberal nomination.  She is still listed as a provencial New Democrat on Wikipedia ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_Beatty ; no provencial Liberals were elected in either of the past two general elections however, so unless they have gained a seat in a by-election or someone else defecting to them Beatty would be all alone as a Provencial Liberal).  Robert Clarke is the Conservative nominee.  Wikipedia doesn't say who New Democrats and Greens nominees (who they apparently expect to field a candidate) have nominated.  Perhaps they haven't made a choice yet, or perhaps they have and no Wikipedia user has added that yet.

[Kevinstat]

Joan Beatty has resigned as MLA for Cumberland, perhaps because she couldn't be an NDP MLA and federal Liberal candidate (some here beleive that to be true it seems) and didn't want to leave the party without resigning her seat.  Plus she may be confident of victory in the federal by-election.  Anyway, there is apparently a dispute over who should pay the cost of the by-election that will have to be called for Cumberland if it hasn't already.  The Saskatchewan Party is calling on the NDP to pay the cost, and there are questions as to when former Premeir and apparently still Sask. NDP leader Lorne Calvert knew Beatty was going to step down (like if he knew or suspected she was going to run when his party reselected her for last November's provincial general election, I get the sense).  Calvert claims he didn't think Beatty was serious about running, and points out that the Saskatchewan Party didn't pay the cost of a by-election in Weygrand which was caused by the resignation of one of their MLA's.  That guy might have served more than seven weeks of his term however.   You can read the article at http://www.newstalk650.com/incoming/20080107/ndp-will-not-pay-byelection-cost .

[Kevinstat]

Do Brian Morin (NDP) and/or Rob Clarke (Conservative) stand a chance in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?  Or is that seat safe for the Grits like the other three seats electing MPs on March 17 (it seemed to be generally agreed on this site at least that those three seats were safe for the Liberals) now that Joan Beatty is the Liberal nominee?

Also, any news on a special election date or developments in Westmount-Ville Marie?  That seems like a safe Liberal seat.  Don Valley West will become vacant on July 1 if the government (and thus the current parliament) is still in tact by then, but Harper wouldn't have to call the by-election until six months after that.  Wikipedia article on the that constituency reads, "The resulting by-election, consequently, is not necessarily required to be held before the spring of 2009" (italis theirs; removed italics from '2009').  The Wikipedia editor who wrote that is adding a generous amount of time for the by-election to be held after it is called, but it seems like it might have been over two months since the dates of these four elections were set and there are still over two weeks left.  Don Valley West also seems fairly safe for the Liberals, although it was fairly strongly held by the Progressive Conservatives before their 1993 meltdown.