2008 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

By-elections will be held on March 17 in the following ridings

*Toronto Centre (Ontario).
*Willowdale (Ontario).
*Vancouver Quadra (British Columbia).
*Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan).

The first 3 are safe Liberal seats, the last one has a history of going Liberal, Conservative or NDP.

Unfortunately, the election in Toronto Centre will see the election of Bob Rae

[Hatman 🍁]

Was the Sask. riding extremely close in the last election?

It was indeed, but it's also a huge, extremely rural riding, the sort where loyalty is to incumbent and not party, and thus it routinely sees wild and unpredictable swings (at least from polls) when it opens up.

It wasn't incumbent friendly last time, as it was one of the few (only?) ridings in the country to go from Conservative to Liberal. The 2006 election saw the Liberals win by 67 votes, and there was a lot of controversy about it being rigged.

[Hatman 🍁]

It ditched a sitting MP two elections in a row. How can you call that incumbent friendly?

Ok sure, Laliberte was able to get re-elected in 2000 after switching parties, but his attempt to run as an independent in 2004 was foiled.

[Hatman 🍁]

It ditched a sitting MP two elections in a row. How can you call that incumbent friendly?

Ok sure, Laliberte was able to get re-elected in 2000 after switching parties, but his attempt to run as an independent in 2004 was foiled.

I didn't call it incumbent friendly. Just liable to switch parties wildly when open.

Only federally. Provincially it's solidly Dipper.

Well, the north part. The southern fringe is more right wing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River provincially, 2007. Not the exact same boundaries oc and I might have missed one or two

Athabasca: NDP 59.47, SASK 31.53, LIB 5.75, GRN 3.24
Cumberland: NDP 66.12, SASK 22.12, GRN 6.24, LIB 5.52
Lloydminster: SASK 61.29, NDP 36.78, LIB 1.93
Meadow Lake: SASK 48.75, NDP 48.51, LIB 2.74
Saskatchewan Rivers: SASK 54.81, NDP 41.32, LIB 3.88
Carrot River Valley: SASK 61.74, NDP 33.19, LIB 5.07
SASK 4, NDP 2

2003: NDP 4, SASK 2

Any 2006 federal poll-by-poll results map for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?

I tried starting it, but it drove me insane. It's way too big.

[Hatman 🍁]

David Orchard is running? That's funny.

[Hatman 🍁]

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River provincially, 2007. Not the exact same boundaries oc and I might have missed one or two

Athabasca: NDP 59.47, SASK 31.53, LIB 5.75, GRN 3.24
Cumberland: NDP 66.12, SASK 22.12, GRN 6.24, LIB 5.52
Lloydminster: SASK 61.29, NDP 36.78, LIB 1.93
Meadow Lake: SASK 48.75, NDP 48.51, LIB 2.74
Saskatchewan Rivers: SASK 54.81, NDP 41.32, LIB 3.88
Carrot River Valley: SASK 61.74, NDP 33.19, LIB 5.07
SASK 4, NDP 2

2003: NDP 4, SASK 2

Any 2006 federal poll-by-poll results map for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River?

I tried starting it, but it drove me insane. It's way too big.

If you could give me a blank map of the polls, I could attempt doing one.

There's no one map, you have to paste together like 300 maps or something.

[Hatman 🍁]

The MLA in Cumberland may be the Liberal candidate, which would ruin the NDP's chances there. Actually, a David Orchard candidacy may be the same, unless one of the other parties nominates a well known aboriginal. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Most NDPers in Saskatchewan are fairly moderate anyways. He'd fit in well with the party, but I'm not sure if he'd be interested.

On a different note, I thought I'd give everyone a christmas present and post the Outremont by-election map. Enjoy

[Hatman 🍁]

Most NDPers in Saskatchewan are fairly moderate anyways. He'd fit in well with the party, but I'm not sure if he'd be interested.

On a different note, I thought I'd give everyone a christmas present and post the Outremont by-election map. Enjoy

I saw on wikipedia that there is a large hasidic population in Outremont so i'm wondering if that 70-80% NDP area is where they live since hasids tend to vote monolithically.

I think they live in the Liberal areas, where the Liberals got 60%+ I cant see the hasidic jews voting NDP. It's been along time since Jews voted NDP/CCF en masse, although that was certainly the case during the interwar period.

[Hatman 🍁]

The areas where the NDP polled the highest in the north part of the riding (Mile-End) was where the NDP polled the highest in the 2006 election. The rest of the orange areas voted Bloc last time, and so you can see the huge swing towards the NDP.

The Hasidim live in the northeast of the riding. It's not in the heaviest NDP-voting region (that's the Plateau and Mile End) but just a little north of there in the very long and thin catchment areas (sorry, can't think of the term for those jurisdictional boundaries) where NDP support isn't as strong.

The heaviest Liberal areas are the Plateau and Centreville in the south and the immigrant enclaves in the north - Jamaicans, Italians, and Portuguese, mostly.

So, you're saying the Hasidic areas voted NDP inspite of it being Hasidic?

[Hatman 🍁]

Any chance the NDP would run Orchard if their MLA runs as a Liberal?  I remember reading on this forum (or the old forum) back when the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Canadian Alliance and it was discussed how their support would really break down that the "Orchardites" might go to the NDP.  So, what about David Orchard himself running as a Dipper, or is he too conservative for the New Democrats?  Could he be Bev Desjarlais (a comparatively conservative Dipper from a northern Prarie Province constituency) resurected (politically; I think Desjarlais is still alive)?

I'm not sure the NDP would want to go through Desjarlais again; they did kick her out of the caucus, after all. On the other hand, I don't know how conservative David Orchard actually is.

I remember reading during the last campaign that the NDP in Desjarlais's constituency had selected another candidate but that Deslarlais had not been kicked out of the NDP caucus (although perhaps she didn't leave the caucus when she decided to run as an Independent and then she was kicked out).

Well, she was essentially kicked out; stripping her of all privileges after the same-sex marriage vote was more or less a go-ahead to her riding association to deselect her.

She lost the nomination iirc

[Hatman 🍁]

She lost the nomination iirc

...because she voted the wrong way on same sex marriage.

She wasn't forced out though. She could've still won, but obviously she couldn't get enough support to win, because of her views.

[Hatman 🍁]

She wasn't forced out though.

What is deselection if not being forced out?

Well, she was democratically forced out then

[Hatman 🍁]

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).

Well, you cant be a member of the NDP and the Liberals at the same time, so I'm not sure how that is going to work. The Saskatchewan NDP is affiliated with the federal NDP, and one cannot be a member of the NDP and another party at the same time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Running for the federal Liberals does not necessarily entail leaving the provincial NDP, at least unless she actually wins the by-election (at which point she'd vacate her seat in the Sask. legislature anyway).

Well, you cant be a member of the NDP and the Liberals at the same time, so I'm not sure how that is going to work. The Saskatchewan NDP is affiliated with the federal NDP, and one cannot be a member of the NDP and another party at the same time.

I am fairly certain that you do not need to be a member of the Liberals to run as a Liberal candidate (for precisely this reason), though you do have to be a Liberal to sit in the HoC as a Liberal. Therefore, she will switch party memberships upon entering the HoC, should she enter the HoC.

Hmm, I'm not sure, but something about that doesn't seem correct.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the impact that David Orchard is going to have on the race? Will he depress Liberal turnout enough for the Conservatives to take it?

Why would he have any impact?

[Hatman 🍁]

DMCR is up in the air due to its history, but I'd say it's the Liberal's to lose.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don Valley West will be targeted by the tories for sure, but no one in Canada could run and win for them.  I am convinced.  The NDP does have a better chance in Westmount than the tories do in DVW, but I'm not going to say that's a good chance either. I know cp has a good knowledge of the area, but I can pull out a few posts saying the NDP would never win Outremont.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fair enough, but weren't the NDP supposed to win 4-5 seats in Alberta and 14 seats in Ontario?

Those races were stolen, I tellz ya!

[Hatman 🍁]

electionprediction.org calls Churchill River a tory pick up. Interesting...

[Hatman 🍁]

Results will be posted in 5 minutes

[Hatman 🍁]

20 polls in Toronto Centre

Rae has 60%

[Hatman 🍁]

25 polls in Churchill River. The tory candidate has 68%. wow

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP fourth place in Toronto Centre! Wow, that's a big surprise.