Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Eraserhead]

The LA Times sucks almost as bad as ARG.

True and they picked an awful time to poll over but I am still getting pretty damn concerned. Fcking Edwards is going to end up giving us President Clinton for at least four years!

[Lief 🗽]

The LA Times sucks almost as bad as ARG.

True and they picked an awful time to poll over but I am still getting pretty damn concerned. Fcking Edwards is going to end up giving us President Clinton for at least four years!

Without Edwards, Clinton would be crushing Obama. Clinton and Edwards are fighting for the same voter demographics.

[bgwah]

33% Obama
28% Edwards
27% Clinton
5% Richardson
4% Biden
2% Dodd
1% Kucinich
0% Gravel

[Sarnstrom]

Also keep in mind that it's very hard to accurately poll the Iowa Caucuses. These were the last polls released in 2004:

1/16-1/18 Zogby:
Kerry 25%
Dean 22%
Edwards 21%
Gephardt 18%

1/13-1/16 Des Moines Register:
Kerry 26%
Edwards 23%
Dean 20%
Gephardt 18%

1/13-1/15 Survey USA:
Dean 24%
Edwards 22%
Kerry 21%
Gephardt 20%

1/19 Actual Results:
Kerry 38%
Edwards 32%
Dean 18%
Gephardt 11%

Pretty different results than the polls predicted.
Link to polls: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=5338

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Obama- 30%
Clinton- 27%
Edwards-27%
Other- 16%

[MarkWarner08]

On momentum:

Hillary Clinton was virtually tied with Rick Lazio in October 2000. Pundits, pollsters, and campaign aides were all predicting a dead-heat election. Surprisingly, Hillary surged in the final week of the campaign and won on election day with 55%. Hillary on the "big mo" scale: 4/5 stars

John Edwards has trailed by large margins in his only two campaigns for public office. In the 1998 NC Senate race he surged into the lead after several strong debate performances against incumbent Launch Faircloth. Edwards eventually won by 4%, a strong win for a novice candidate.
Edwards on the "big mo" scale: 4.25/5 stars

Barack Obama was unknown to most voters when he announced his 2004 bid for the U.S Senate. The Democratic primary featured a billionaire, a statewide elected official, and several other prominent candidates with geographical or ethnic bases. After the billionaire's campaign imploded due to spousal abuse charges, Obama's pol numbers surged. He closes the deal with a powerful series of ads featuring the widow of liberal icon Paul Simon praising Barack Obama.
Obama on the "big mo' scale: 4/5 stars

All three Democratic frontrunners are solid closers, but with the race a statistical dead-heat, the edge should go to the man with the most experience closing elections. That's why my gut now tells me the winner will either be Edwards or Hillary.

[Flying Dog]

Iowa Caucasus:

Obama: 39%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 18%

[ShadowRocket]

The LA Times sucks almost as bad as ARG.

True and they picked an awful time to poll over but I am still getting pretty damn concerned. Fcking Edwards is going to end up giving us President Clinton for at least four years!

Hillary hasn't built a very good firewall in NH and a loss in Iowa would hurt her there.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Edwards- 30%
Obama- 29%
Clinton-25%
Other- 16%


updating it after I read how things work and all.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

John Edwards - 34%
Barack Obama - 27%
Hillary Clinton - 25%
Bill Richardson - 7%
Joe Biden - 4%

Edwards knows how to close, as proven by his Senate bid, 2004 Iowa performance, and now his late surge in the Iowa polls.  Clinton and Obama have been polling mid to upper 20s in Iowa for months, and I don't see that changing. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hillary Clinton: 29%
Barack Obama: 27%
John Edwards: 24%
Bill Richardson: 8%
Joe Biden: 5%
Chris Dodd: 2%
Others: 5%

[MarkWarner08]

I'll probably make one final prediction the day before the caucus. Today's gut says Obama in 1st, Hilldawg in 2nd, and Edwards in 3rd.

[ilikeverin]

Clinton: 30%
Obama: 29%
Edwards: 24%
Biden: 8%
Richardson: 5%
Dodd: 2%
Others: 2%

[MarkWarner08]

Today's prediction: Edwards, by a nose hair.

[Platypus]

Hillary-30
Obama-30
Edwards-29
Other-11

A very strong showing from the top three and a very narrow margin.

[Kushahontas]

new:

edwards: 30
clinton: 29
obama: 28

[CARLHAYDEN]

Clinton          33%
Edwards       25
Obama          20
Richardson    10
Biden              5
Kucinich          4
Dodd              2
Gravel             1

[Democratic Hawk]

Edwards 30%
Clinton 26%
Obama 23%
Richardson 11%
Biden 6%
Others 4%

[MarkWarner08]

Today's news: Obama is not dead yet. This race is deadlocked.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Today's news: Obama is not dead yet. This race is deadlocked.

He never was, but his numbers, in almost every poll have stagnated. Yes we have the DMR poll which gives the Obama people a little bit of a rush. Clinton has all the right demographics in her favor at the moment. One good poll does not a victory make.

Edwards is at once trying to downplay the IA poll where he's tied for the lead and the DMR poll where he's not doing so well. I was thinking Edwards was going to win.... and it will remain my prediction for the forum primary thingy.... but here.

Clinton - 31%
Edwards - 29%
Obama - 27%
Others 13%

[Umengus]

for fun:

Edwards: 31%
Clinton: 27%
Obama: 24%

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama-34
Edwards- 31
Clinton- 24
Other: 11

[ukchris82]

Edwards - 30
Clinton - 28
Obama - 28

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Either very close or a surprisingly big win for whoever wins.

[Tender Branson]

There are only close polls coming out of IA anymore.

Therefore my final prediction:

1. Clinton: 28% (16 delegates)

2. Edwards: 27% (15 delegates)

3. Obama: 26% (14 delegates)

Richardson: 8%
Biden: 7%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 2%
Gravel: less than 1%

Turnout: 130.000-150.000