SD: Badlands Blue (D): Johnson crushes Republican opponent

[Adlai Stevenson]

Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 15:44:25 PM MST

A poll conducted in November by a Democratic group indicates that Sen. Johnson has a 69% job approval rating, a favorable/unfavorable rating of 64%-18%, and a 38-point lead over Republican former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby (67%-29%).  The poll surveyed 600 likely South Dakota voters and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

Job Approval: Tim Johnson as U.S. Senator
Excellent: 23%
Good: 46%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 6%
DK/Refused: 3%
Excellent/Good: 69%

Favorable/Unfavorable
Tim Johnson   64%/18%
Steve Kirby   14%/18%

Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November 2008, if the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Tim Johnson and Republican Steve Kirby - for whom would you vote, Tim Johnson or Steve Kirby?

Tim Johnson 66%
Lean Tim Johnson 2%
Steve Kirby 26%
Lean Steve Kirby 3%
(Undecided) 4%
Total Tim Johnson 67%
Total Steve Kirby 29%

http://www.badlandsblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=448

[Gabu]

Okay, anyone still think that this seat is vulnerable?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Rounds dropped out of the race, just like Hoevan did against Conrad, there was no one to beat Johnson.   And he has made a remarkable recovery since his illness. As long as he doesn't go into relapse, Johnson will be reelected.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rounds and Hoeven never dropped out of the race because they were never in it to begin with.

[Rococo4]

Tough position for anyone to be in against Johnson due to what happened last year.  No shock no big names in SD want to run.

[Alcon]

This race really could have only gone two ways--

A - GOP rhetorically asks "can Johnson really serve South Dakota well enough?", populace gets antsy, GOP comes up with someone really good out of thin air, and the race is highly competitive.

B - Anything else, or nothing else, happens.  Johnson coasts.

I don't think we needed a poll to show it's going toward B.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Attacking Johnson over his absence would only backfire big time.

[Alcon]

Attacking Johnson over his absence would only backfire big time.

Probably.

The GOP had a very narrow window.  They had to balance throwing in rhetorical unease about Johnson's condition with never, ever implying it as a direct attack on his re-election.  They may have realized this is like putting a camel through an eye of the needle and moved on.

I predict that, by November, we'll see at least one party activist directly attack Johnson for this and be universally beaten up on.  Fun for the whole family!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Attacking Johnson over his absence would only backfire big time.

I totally agree.  However, the GOP could make the argument that he needs to leave the Senate so that he can focus on his recovery.

[Padfoot]

Attacking Johnson over his absence would only backfire big time.

I totally agree.  However, the GOP could make the argument that he needs to leave the Senate so that he can focus on his recovery.

Thats still a rude move an their part and one that probably wouldn't resonate well with voters especially while Johnson is showing signs of a quick recovery after jumping back into the fray of the Senate.  Even before he actually returned to the floor there were several articles updating the public on his condition which indicated he was doing better and enjoying the work he was able to do out of his room.

[Gabu]

The only hope the Republicans had here is for the South Dakotan people to already have the thought in their minds without any coercion that Johnson's medical emergency has rendered him unable to serve his constituents.  They have quite clearly and resoundingly do not.  Any mention, no matter how small, of his condition by a Republican is immediately going to bring up accusations of taking political advantage of his condition that the South Dakotan people will probably agree with.

The Republicans really ought to just go elsewhere.