Realistic scenario for Paul: beating Thompson

[Jacobtm]

So lots of people like to imagine what'd happen if Ron Paul were the Republican nominee, or even the President.

Not gonna happen.

However, I feel like he could easily finish 5th to McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney. This would leave Fred Thompson - a man whom a few months ago was actually leading in many polls - a distant 6th, and Paul not so badly humiliated.

What do you think? Could he finish even higher than 5th, maybe beating out McCain?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't think he beats out McCain.  His best is finishing 5th, behind Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani.

[Mr. Morden]

How do you define what ranking someone finishes in in the overall nomination fight?  By how many delegates they have?  Because Paul could easily finish as high as 4th or even 3rd in delegates, as many of the leading candidates could drop out very early in the process and end up with virtually no delegates.

Suppose for example that Romney actually wins Iowa, then goes on to win NH and MI, which gives him enough momentum to win basically everything else.  Then almost all the other candidates would drop out even before Feb. 5th, but Paul sticks it out, and picks up at least a few delegates here and there, putting him ahead of most of the other candidates (but still way behind Romney).

[Jacobtm]

Yeah, if you define it by delegates, he probably would do better than a few bigger candidates, since he'd campaign longer.

[gorkay]

Where? In a specific state or overall? He has a great chance at beating Thompson both ways, but that doesn't necessarily mean much, because Fred's scraping the bottom right now and will probably drop out before Paul does.

It might be tougher for him in specific states... although some polls do show him up to third in New Hampshire.