Senate Pickups?

[they don't love you like i love you]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

[Keystone Phil]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

[Verily]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

I'd be interested to hear why you think Colorado is more likely to change hands than New Mexico. I'm not challenging the idea, but it seems as if Tom Udall is polling considerably more strongly than Mark Udall, and the fact that the Republicans will have a serious primary in New Mexico but not in Colorado surely can't help.

[Keystone Phil]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

I'd be interested to hear why you think Colorado is more likely to change hands than New Mexico. I'm not challenging the idea, but it seems as if Tom Udall is polling considerably more strongly than Mark Udall, and the fact that the Republicans will have a serious primary in New Mexico but not in Colorado surely can't help.

The GOP primary in NM will hurt us in the short term but, in the end, I think that battle will really prepare us for a tough General. I also think that both Pearce and Wilson (I'm supporting Pearce) are much stronger than Schaffer in Colorado.

[Person Man]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

I'd be interested to hear why you think Colorado is more likely to change hands than New Mexico. I'm not challenging the idea, but it seems as if Tom Udall is polling considerably more strongly than Mark Udall, and the fact that the Republicans will have a serious primary in New Mexico but not in Colorado surely can't help.

The GOP primary in NM will hurt us in the short term but, in the end, I think that battle will really prepare us for a tough General. I also think that both Pearce and Wilson (I'm supporting Pearce) are much stronger than Schaffer in Colorado.

That really does seem like Wishful thinking. My gut says-

Colorado- 50% Udall
                49% Schaffer

New Mexico- 55% Udall
                     44% Wilson

[Keystone Phil]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

I'd be interested to hear why you think Colorado is more likely to change hands than New Mexico. I'm not challenging the idea, but it seems as if Tom Udall is polling considerably more strongly than Mark Udall, and the fact that the Republicans will have a serious primary in New Mexico but not in Colorado surely can't help.

The GOP primary in NM will hurt us in the short term but, in the end, I think that battle will really prepare us for a tough General. I also think that both Pearce and Wilson (I'm supporting Pearce) are much stronger than Schaffer in Colorado.

That really does seem like Wishful thinking. My gut says-

Colorado- 50% Udall
                49% Schaffer

New Mexico- 55% Udall
                     44% Wilson

How's what I said wishful thinking? In your scenario, you have one race as a tossup (ultimately have the Dems win) and the other as a Dem favored race. I have one race as a tossup (ultimately have the GOP win) and the other as a Dem favored race. I think most would say that NM will be closer than Colorado.

[Mr.Phips]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

I'd be interested to hear why you think Colorado is more likely to change hands than New Mexico. I'm not challenging the idea, but it seems as if Tom Udall is polling considerably more strongly than Mark Udall, and the fact that the Republicans will have a serious primary in New Mexico but not in Colorado surely can't help.

The GOP primary in NM will hurt us in the short term but, in the end, I think that battle will really prepare us for a tough General. I also think that both Pearce and Wilson (I'm supporting Pearce) are much stronger than Schaffer in Colorado.

Come on now.  This is a state that the Democratic nominee will win(unless the nominee is McCain) and they will bring Udall in with them. 

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Democrats pick up VA, NM, NH and CO. Republicans pick up LA.

My thoughts exactly .

[MarkWarner08]

Alaska is the sleeper of the cycle. Here's how the Democrats can pick-up a U.S Senate seat in Alaska: 1a. Nominate Mike Gravel. 1b. Nominate Anyone But Hillary and run Bill Ritter as the Vp. 2. Convince Mark Begich to run. 3. Pray that Uncle Ted wins the GOP primary. 4. Pray that the GOP nominee is Mike Huckabee (let's see how well a theocrat performs with libertarian-leaning voters!). 5. Hope VECO becomes an even bigger scandal.

If everything falls into place, a Democrat not named Tony Knowles may finally win something important in Alaska.

[Smash255]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

I'd be interested to hear why you think Colorado is more likely to change hands than New Mexico. I'm not challenging the idea, but it seems as if Tom Udall is polling considerably more strongly than Mark Udall, and the fact that the Republicans will have a serious primary in New Mexico but not in Colorado surely can't help.

The GOP primary in NM will hurt us in the short term but, in the end, I think that battle will really prepare us for a tough General. I also think that both Pearce and Wilson (I'm supporting Pearce) are much stronger than Schaffer in Colorado.

That really does seem like Wishful thinking. My gut says-

Colorado- 50% Udall
                49% Schaffer

New Mexico- 55% Udall
                     44% Wilson

How's what I said wishful thinking? In your scenario, you have one race as a tossup (ultimately have the Dems win) and the other as a Dem favored race. I have one race as a tossup (ultimately have the GOP win) and the other as a Dem favored race. I think most would say that NM will be closer than Colorado.

First, Welcome back Phil.

Second.  It is wishful thinking on the part of NM.  I think the Dems will win both states, but they will win by more in New Mexico.  The early polls have Udall having well into a double digit lead against either opponent.   Mark Udall probably wins by 5-7 points in Colorado, while I would be surprised if Pierce or Wilson can get any lower than high single digits against Tom Udall, and likely will be in the double digits.  If Bill Richardson happens to get the VP slot on the Dem ticket it throws another wrinkle into the mix.

[12th Doctor]

Should be Democrats +5:

NH, VA, MN, NM, and CO, holding LA

I am pretty sure there will be no Democratic Revival until we get another 1929 or when a major U.S. goes up in a mushroom cloud....and with Bhutto dead, I would say the chance of that happening went from like 5% to like 25%.

Hoping for the day, I see.

[opebo]

Should be Democrats +5:

NH, VA, MN, NM, and CO, holding LA

I am pretty sure there will be no Democratic Revival until we get another 1929 or when a major U.S. goes up in a mushroom cloud....and with Bhutto dead, I would say the chance of that happening went from like 5% to like 25%.

Hoping for the day, I see.

Actually given that the fear of mushroom clouds has always benefited the War Party (hysteria/fear/xenophobia/nationalist party), it seems like the actual clouds would benefit them even more.

[JSojourner]

Alaska is the sleeper of the cycle. Here's how the Democrats can pick-up a U.S Senate seat in Alaska: 1a. Nominate Mike Gravel. 1b. Nominate Anyone But Hillary and run Bill Ritter as the Vp. 2. Convince Mark Begich to run. 3. Pray that Uncle Ted wins the GOP primary. 4. Pray that the GOP nominee is Mike Huckabee (let's see how well a theocrat performs with libertarian-leaning voters!). 5. Hope VECO becomes an even bigger scandal.

If everything falls into place, a Democrat not named Tony Knowles may finally win something important in Alaska.

Yep, I couldn't agree more.  Except with the Mike Gravel thing.  If Alaskans are sick and tired of rank corruption, and if Stevens survives the primary, a reasonable Democrat could win.  Don Young could also be going down. 

[Keystone Phil]

Second.  It is wishful thinking on the part of NM.  I think the Dems will win both states, but they will win by more in New Mexico. 

I didn't expect it/would want it any other way with you, Smash.    Thanks for the welcome.

[Person Man]

Should be Democrats +5:

NH, VA, MN, NM, and CO, holding LA

I am pretty sure there will be no Democratic Revival until we get another 1929 or when a major U.S. goes up in a mushroom cloud....and with Bhutto dead, I would say the chance of that happening went from like 5% to like 25%.

Hoping for the day, I see.

Is the spinmaster trying to spin my fears into hopes?