Senate Pickups?

[MarkWarner08]

It makes no sense Palin would leave Juneau for Washington.

The same was said of Frank's daughter...

[HardRCafé]

She wasn't making much difference up there.

[Kevin]

Democratic pickups, NH, CO, NM, and VA. Also possibly OR and with AK if the Democrats couldn't win there in 2004 what makes anyone think they can in 2008 even with all the scandals that are plaguing Stevens?

Republican pickups, Possibly LA?   

2004 was a very good year for Republicans and Murkowski was saved only by Bush's 61%-38% margin. 

However people in Alaska know Stevens and he has been an excellent Senator for the state and I think he will win on this account. 

[Person Man]

Democratic pickups, NH, CO, NM, and VA. Also possibly OR and with AK if the Democrats couldn't win there in 2004 what makes anyone think they can in 2008 even with all the scandals that are plaguing Stevens?

Republican pickups, Possibly LA?  

2004 was a very good year for Republicans and Murkowski was saved only by Bush's 61%-38% margin. 

However people in Alaska know Stevens and he has been an excellent Senator for the state and I think he will win on this account. 

Lol. fuggin rich people.

[opebo]

Should be Democrats +5:

NH, VA, MN, NM, and CO, holding LA

[MarkWarner08]

Should be Democrats +5:

NH, VA, MN, NM, and CO, holding LA

I doubt Coleman will lose to the clown or the trial lawyer. NH, VA, and CO are pretty much in the bag, barring a Hillary collapse as the nominee or gaffes by any of the D nominees. NM is probably leans Democratic, but top-ticket atmospherics could change that. I agree with on LA. Landrieu starts off as the favorite, but this is another red state where, once again, Hillary could push the Democratic nominee below 50%.

Oregon and Alaska are two other states to watch closely. If Merkley and Begich are the D nominees in these two states, it's quite possible the Democrats could pick up another two seats here. If the Democrats pull of a second straight near-sweep of close Senate races, the new Senate will be 56-42-2 in favor of Democrats.  Chuck Schumer as majority leader could easily nab the 2-3 Republicans needed to  pass major reforms.

[The Mikado]

The Democrat party will do well all over the country whether people like it or not. They will probably win most Senate races except in really southern states.

I like my Democrat Senator (Cheryl Brown, I think?) but I also liked the Republican he beat (the Republican came to my town for an event and I met him with Michael Naso).

Okay, you're now my favorite poster here.

Look how she manages to say "Democrat Senator," rather than Democratic, and subtly alters Sherrod Brown's name to turn him into a woman.  A rather odd insult for someone who claims to be female herself, but then again, I remember being a camp counsellor once and having a six-year-old girl taunt me by shouting, "You're a girl!" over and over.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm guessing six. I see the Dems having pick-ups in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, and Minnessota. Leaving them with a 55-43-2 majority. I think Landrieu will narrowly hold on to her seat, and Collins will win in Maine.

[Reaganfan]

The Mikado, how am I making fun of women? I read about the Senator in the newspaper a lot and hear about him on TV but I never saw a picture or anything. I thought the name was Cheryl! How is that an insult?

Also, I said he was a Democrat because I thought he is. Democrat, Democratic...same thing. I'll use Democratic though if people are going to go crazy now!

[7,052,770]

The Mikado, how am I making fun of women? I read about the Senator in the newspaper a lot and hear about him on TV but I never saw a picture or anything. I thought the name was Cheryl! How is that an insult?

Also, I said he was a Democrat because I thought he is. Democrat, Democratic...same thing. I'll use Democratic though if people are going to go crazy now!

"Democrat" is the noun, "Democratic" is the adjective.  I am a Democrat; I am a member of the Democratic Party.

People like Rush Limbaugh like to call us the "Democrat Party" because it sounds cacophonous and subliminally makes people uncomfortable.

[Reaganfan]

I think Democrat party sounds fine but if Democrats are offended then I will switch.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think Democrat party sounds fine but if Democrats are offended then I will switch.

We are offended, and thank you.

[© tweed]

think of it as calling a Trotskyist a 'Trot'

[HardRCafé]

Don't forget the possibility of picking up the special election seat in MS!  There's just as good a shot of picking up this one as picking up Alaska...

I'll give her/him the benefit of the doubt...some of the things she says don't really sound like the way Naso would phrase them.

At least you are consistent, I guess.

[Person Man]

Should be Democrats +5:

NH, VA, MN, NM, and CO, holding LA

Well...maybe not MN, but the dems can't hold MN with Clinton, I am pretty sure there will be no Democratic Revival until we get another 1929 or when a major U.S. goes up in a mushroom cloud....and with Bhutto dead, I would say the chance of that happening went from like 5% to like 25%.

[opebo]

Should be Democrats +5:

NH, VA, MN, NM, and CO, holding LA

Well...maybe not MN, but the dems can't hold MN with Clinton, I am pretty sure there will be no Democratic Revival until we get another 1929 or when a major U.S. goes up in a mushroom cloud....and with Bhutto dead, I would say the chance of that happening went from like 5% to like 25%.

'Hold' Minnesota?  They don't hold it now.. they need to pick it up.  And I think Clinton will do fine in that state.  As for the Bhutto effect - as much as I agree that she was a fine person, at least as far as the frightful miasma that is Pakistani politics goes, I must point out that she was just an opposition leader with little chance of actually attaining power. 

[ShadowRocket]

I'm guessing six. I see the Dems having pick-ups in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, and Minnessota. Leaving them with a 55-43-2 majority. I think Landrieu will narrowly hold on to her seat, and Collins will win in Maine.

I'm going to revise my number a little bit because I think the Democrats could still see pick-up in Alaska and Maine.

[HardRCafé]

I'm going to revise my number a little bit because I think the Democrats could still see pick-up in Alaska and Maine.

Did a second seat in Maine open up?

[Torie]

At the moment, the Dems pick up VA, NM and CO, with LA a tossup. So plus 2.5. But the Dems have a lot more upside than downside, so if one does overall odds rather than a seat by seat, it is plus 4 for them.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats pick up VA, NM, NH and CO. Republicans pick up LA.

[Sam Spade]

My gut says 2-4 right now.  Of course, considering the seats available, 5-6 is more likely than 0-1, but anything can happen.

If Hillary is the nominee, I have a very tough time seeing the Democrats getting more than 2, because the Clinton name just doesn't wear well in Colorado.

[J. J.]

1) Dems get pickups in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire,  Oregon and Minnesota

2) Republicans pickup Louisiana

Net +5 for Democrats

I agree, except that one of the "New" states could hold.  Net gain of four Democrats.  54 D, 45 R, 1 I (Caucuses with the D's).

2012 has the potential for being a Democratic Waterloo, depending on the presidential election.

I'll predict a net loss for the D's in the House, but minor (1-2).

[Mr.Phips]

1) Dems get pickups in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire,  Oregon and Minnesota

2) Republicans pickup Louisiana

Net +5 for Democrats

I agree, except that one of the "New" states could hold.  Net gain of four Democrats.  54 D, 45 R, 1 I (Caucuses with the D's).

2012 has the potential for being a Democratic Waterloo, depending on the presidential election.

I'll predict a net loss for the D's in the House, but minor (1-2).

I think the House depends on who wins the Presidency.  If Democrats win it, they pick up a couple.  If Republicans win it, they pick up one or two. 

[SamInTheSouth]

I think the Democrats will likely pick up New Mexico and Virginia.

I think Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota and New Hampshire are toss ups at this point in time.

Alaska could fall to the Democrats if the GOP doesn't force Stevens into retirement.  If they do, then Alaska is safe Republican.

Everything else remains as is (OR and ME are not going to flip)

Worst case scenario for Dems is a net gain of one seat.  Best case scenario is a net gain of 6.

[Keystone Phil]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.