Can McCain Beat Clinton?

[Lincoln Republican]

Can a resurgent John McCain defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election?

Please discuss.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

He could, although I think it is unlikely.  The only Kerry states I see possibly switching are New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and I don't think they will.  If McCain does win, it will be with no more than 275 EV.

[Padfoot]

If McCain runs against Hillary he will win Ohio easily and thus the election.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

McCain matched up very well against all the Democratic candidates. Don't count out McCain switching New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. IIRC, he beats Clinton by a 6-7% margin in some polls, and even makes Massachusetts close--though i dont expect it to be.

[Reaganfan]

He may be too old to campaign but people really dislike Hillary. When she does that laugh, I know people that have to turn off their TV.

[Person Man]

He may be too old to campaign but people really dislike Hillary. When she does that laugh, I know people that have to turn off their TV.

Although, Bush has shown us that "Anybody but X" does not work. Clinton will simply have to show that her opponent is unacceptable.

[Smid]

I think McCain brings into play New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, although may have trouble in Florida - with all the NYers who've retired down to there.

[Mr.Phips]

In the end, I think he can.  After the nominations are sewn up in March, I think Hillary will enjoy a pretty consistant lead over him up until the late August convention.  McCain will then rally Republicans and independents at the convention in early September and shoot up to a double digit lead.  Hillary will then work to bring him down in debates, but it wont be enough for her to win in the end.  She will fall just short. 

[Person Man]

I guess it could happen and it has before...but it seems unlikely...

[Jacobtm]

Easily.
People will say it's sexism, but polls show that McCain is uniquely strong against each democrat. If Clinton were facing any other Republican, she would have a way to win, but McCain would not give her an inch.

[Person Man]

Easily.
People will say it's sexism, but polls show that McCain is uniquely strong against each democrat. If Clinton were facing any other Republican, she would have a way to win, but McCain would not give her an inch.

Will he be able to hold out?

[J. J.]

He could, although I think it is unlikely.  The only Kerry states I see possibly switching are New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and I don't think they will.  If McCain does win, it will be with no more than 275 EV.

First, if Clinton does as well Kerry, she loses.

Second, PA looks like a McCain state.  Clinton doesn't have to do that much worse than Kerry to loose it.

Third, a lot of the general has a chance of being impacted by the current racially charged campaign.  Unless that is ended, very quickly, Clinton will not be able to get the same African American vote that past Democratic nominees have.  I saw the same thing happen with Dukakis. (See #2.)

Now, to both Clinton's and Obama's credit, they are working on number three, and trying to defuse the situation.  That has the real potential of weakening any chance either nominee would have.  (I think it might have to be Clinton/Obama 2008, or vice versa, to solve that problem, but that would be a winning ticket.)

[Ben.]

He could, although I think it is unlikely.  The only Kerry states I see possibly switching are New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and I don't think they will.  If McCain does win, it will be with no more than 275 EV.

First, if Clinton does as well Kerry, she loses.

Second, PA looks like a McCain state.  Clinton doesn't have to do that much worse than Kerry to loose it.

Third, a lot of the general has a chance of being impacted by the current racially charged campaign.  Unless that is ended, very quickly, Clinton will not be able to get the same African American vote that past Democratic nominees have.  I saw the same thing happen with Dukakis. (See #2.)

Now, to both Clinton's and Obama's credit, they are working on number three, and trying to defuse the situation.  That has the real potential of weakening any chance either nominee would have.  (I think it might have to be Clinton/Obama 2008, or vice versa, to solve that problem, but that would be a winning ticket.)

If Black turnout dips down, say... 10 points(?), The chances of the Dem nominee winning PA, MI, FL and OH take a big hit.

And that could be even more the case in a race between Clinton and a larlgy unobjectionable GOP nominee like McCain.     

[opebo]

I think the recession will be pinching blacks so horribly by November that they'll come out and vote for Hillary, like her or not.  Same is true of working-class whites (who're the racists winning her the primary).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He could do, yes. He probably wouldn't o/c, not with overall political conditions being what they are, but it's not totally out of the question.

Far, far, far too early to say much more than that.

[CPT MikeyMike]

He can and he will.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think he can and he could very well beat her.

Interestingly enough, www.electoral-vote.com has put up their electoral vote map now with Clinton and McCain as the matchup.  Not all the polls for all states are up, yet, so they use 2004 results until new polls come in.  What is in, however, switches Florida to Clinton and, I think, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington State switch to McCain, and even puts Massachusetts and New York in the 57% Democrat win range.  McCain wins the current map.  I trust them because they were pretty accurate in 2004 and, again, in the Senate and the House races of 2006.

[HardRCafé]

I trust them because they were pretty accurate in 2004 and, again, in the Senate and the House races of 2006.

Untrained monkeys were more accurate in 2004.

[jeron]

McCain will win easily. He'll present himself as a moderate republican and win over a lot of democrats who don't like Clinton. This will bring many swing states into play. McCain will definitely win New Hampshire and Wisconsin and maybe Oregon and Pennsylvania. Clinton doesn't have a chance.

[Democratic Hawk]

Yes, he can. Many conservatives might loathe McCain but they loathe Hillary Clinton more. She'd unite the GOP in a way McCain never could

Dave

[Nym90]

He can, but I still see Clinton winning all of the Kerry states plus Ohio, Arkansas, and Iowa.

[Smid]

Some are suggesting that McCain is too moderate to draw out the Republican base. That might be so in the case of pretty much any Democrat candidate other than Clinton. The Republican base despises Clinton enough that they'll be out in force rain, hail or shine to vote against her, and a moderate like McCain may be enough to draw out independents and swinging voters.

[Mr.Phips]

He can, but I still see Clinton winning all of the Kerry states plus Ohio, Arkansas, and Iowa.

I don't see her winning Ohio.  This is a state that loves independent minded Republicans, like McCain and does not like liberal Democrats unless they are strongly against fair trade, like Sherrod Brown.  A poor fit for Hillary.

[phk]

He can, but I still see Clinton winning all of the Kerry states plus Ohio, Arkansas, and Iowa.

I don't see her winning Ohio.  This is a state that loves independent minded Republicans, like McCain and does not like liberal Democrats unless they are strongly against fair trade, like Sherrod Brown.  A poor fit for Hillary.

/Confused....?

[NDN]

If McCain runs against Hillary he will win Ohio easily and thus the election.

And unlike almost all the other GOP candidates, he could actually win New Hampshire too. Either way I see her losing in a hypothetical McCain-Clinton race. Couldn't happen to a better person.