Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 29, 2014, 01:51:57 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Questions and Answers
| |-+  Presidential Election Process
| | |-+  How to win with 22.875% of the vote, with no third parties
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: How to win with 22.875% of the vote, with no third parties  (Read 14652 times)
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38743
Bangladesh


View Profile
« on: December 28, 2007, 07:48:51 pm »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16808


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2007, 08:02:17 pm »
Ignore

I thought the solution was almost the opposite; 50% in all of the grey states except Arizona, Virginia, and either Illinois or Pennsylvania and 0% in all of the green states except New Jersey and Ohio, which gives 270 EVs.

Although perhaps you are accounting for post-2000 population growth/shifts while I am not.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2007, 08:04:50 pm by Verily »Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38743
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2007, 08:46:11 pm »
Ignore

I used voters/EV, rather than plain EVs.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
muon2
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8465


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2007, 09:45:03 pm »
Ignore

I also used votes/ev from 2004 and can get to 21.67%, with a 270 vote win.


Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2007, 08:01:17 am »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
frenger
Bono
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11697
Portugal


Political Matrix
E: 8.65, S: -4.17

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2007, 08:26:38 am »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.

No, you don't because you're not an American born older than 35. Tongue
Logged

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed – and hence clamorous to be led to safety – by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." – H.L. Mencken



NO, I don't want to go back to Fantasy Elections.
muon2
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8465


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2007, 11:55:34 am »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?


I assume that everyone that voted in 2004 does so for this exercise. I used the vote totals for each state, then calculated the votes per ev for each state. I sorted this list on ev/state, with WI first at 299,701 and DC last at 75,862.

To build the list I started removing states with the largest number votes per ev from the top of the list. The order removed was: WI, MI, MN, FL, OH, PA, OR, WA, IL, MO, VA, MA, NJ, MD, NY, CO, NC. At that point I had 278 ev. CA was next so it couldn't be removed and then came CT and KY. KY was the biggest vote total that could be removed and keep enough evs to win.

I also used votes/ev from 2004 and can get to 21.67%, with a 270 vote win.



Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2007, 12:04:32 pm »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.

No, you don't because you're not an American born older than 35. Tongue
You're just jealous because you're not as popular with voters as my cat. Tongue
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
True Democrat
true democrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7485
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2008, 08:07:07 pm »
Ignore

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.
Logged

Michael Bloomberg for President.



Lol Winfield.  This quote is from a thread entitled "what do the following proceed to do if they are not nominated?"
Romney - President of Harvard
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38743
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2008, 10:26:33 pm »
Ignore

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.

Well, my model assumed 100% turnout (of everyone; not just registered voters).
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
muon2
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8465


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2008, 11:25:32 pm »
Ignore

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.

Well, my model assumed 100% turnout (of everyone; not just registered voters).

That's important since the turnout varies quite a bit from state to state.
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21445
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2008, 05:25:47 am »
Ignore

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...
Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5718
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2008, 01:05:49 am »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.
If a candidate can get 50% of the vote in DC and Idaho, while getting none of the votes in Maryland and Oregon, he deserves to win.
Logged
Herman Cain's Gold Chain
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31926
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2008, 08:53:11 pm »
Ignore

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...

Good point.  In fact, Reagan was the last president to recieve over 1/3 of the potential vote.
Has any President ever won 1/2 or more of the potential vote? William McKinley maybe.
Logged



(Part of the 2012 Election Throwback Series)
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38743
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2008, 08:59:18 pm »
Ignore

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...

Good point.  In fact, Reagan was the last president to recieve over 1/3 of the potential vote.
Has any President ever won 1/2 or more of the potential vote? William McKinley maybe.

Monroe?
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14453


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -3.83


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2008, 10:02:38 pm »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population.
Logged

I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6019
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2008, 10:11:44 pm »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15180
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2008, 10:06:55 am »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.

Except you may notice there aren't any gray states with 9 or fewer EVs.

Arizona could be dumped if the candidate in question can count on the House to vote him into office.
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2008, 04:43:49 am »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.

Except you may notice there aren't any gray states with 9 or fewer EVs.

Arizona could be dumped if the candidate in question can count on the House to vote him into office.
He's proposing to win with the Green states.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38743
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2008, 11:24:29 pm »
Ignore

I can't believe this thread is still at the top.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
allnjhaugh
Rookie
*
Posts: 26
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: -0.87

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2011, 06:57:44 pm »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?

If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.
No, you would have 100% of the vote, but about 0.0001% of the electorate.
Logged

Remember, this is a BIG effing deal. -Joe Biden
Scottish Robb Stark
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30237
France


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2011, 04:58:36 am »
Ignore

Well, for a bump, that's a bump. Tongue
Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2011, 01:07:21 pm »
Ignore

Well, for a bump, that's a bump. Tongue
A bad reading comprehension bump, too.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8345
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

View Profile WWW
« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2011, 08:26:23 pm »
Ignore

If everyone but one person moved out of the other 49 states, and all 7 billion people on the earth moved to Wyoming, and, cloned themselves 100,000 times each...
Logged

TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines