How to win with 22.875% of the vote, with no third parties
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:28:38 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process (Moderator: muon2)
  How to win with 22.875% of the vote, with no third parties
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How to win with 22.875% of the vote, with no third parties  (Read 18173 times)
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 28, 2007, 07:48:51 PM »



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2007, 08:02:17 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2007, 08:04:50 PM by Verily »

I thought the solution was almost the opposite; 50% in all of the grey states except Arizona, Virginia, and either Illinois or Pennsylvania and 0% in all of the green states except New Jersey and Ohio, which gives 270 EVs.

Although perhaps you are accounting for post-2000 population growth/shifts while I am not.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2007, 08:46:11 PM »

I used voters/EV, rather than plain EVs.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2007, 09:45:03 PM »

I also used votes/ev from 2004 and can get to 21.67%, with a 270 vote win.


Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2007, 08:01:17 AM »

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.
Logged
Bono
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,699
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2007, 08:26:38 AM »

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.

No, you don't because you're not an American born older than 35. Tongue
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2007, 11:55:34 AM »

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?


I assume that everyone that voted in 2004 does so for this exercise. I used the vote totals for each state, then calculated the votes per ev for each state. I sorted this list on ev/state, with WI first at 299,701 and DC last at 75,862.

To build the list I started removing states with the largest number votes per ev from the top of the list. The order removed was: WI, MI, MN, FL, OH, PA, OR, WA, IL, MO, VA, MA, NJ, MD, NY, CO, NC. At that point I had 278 ev. CA was next so it couldn't be removed and then came CT and KY. KY was the biggest vote total that could be removed and keep enough evs to win.

I also used votes/ev from 2004 and can get to 21.67%, with a 270 vote win.



Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2007, 12:04:32 PM »

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.

No, you don't because you're not an American born older than 35. Tongue
You're just jealous because you're not as popular with voters as my cat. Tongue
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2008, 08:07:07 PM »

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2008, 10:26:33 PM »

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.

Well, my model assumed 100% turnout (of everyone; not just registered voters).
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2008, 11:25:32 PM »

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.

Well, my model assumed 100% turnout (of everyone; not just registered voters).

That's important since the turnout varies quite a bit from state to state.
Logged
Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,478
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2008, 05:25:47 AM »

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2008, 01:05:49 AM »



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.
If a candidate can get 50% of the vote in DC and Idaho, while getting none of the votes in Maryland and Oregon, he deserves to win.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2008, 08:53:11 PM »

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...

Good point.  In fact, Reagan was the last president to recieve over 1/3 of the potential vote.
Has any President ever won 1/2 or more of the potential vote? William McKinley maybe.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2008, 08:59:18 PM »

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...

Good point.  In fact, Reagan was the last president to recieve over 1/3 of the potential vote.
Has any President ever won 1/2 or more of the potential vote? William McKinley maybe.

Monroe?
Logged
memphis
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,959


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2008, 10:02:38 PM »



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population.
Logged
Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2008, 10:11:44 PM »



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2008, 10:06:55 AM »



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.

Except you may notice there aren't any gray states with 9 or fewer EVs.

Arizona could be dumped if the candidate in question can count on the House to vote him into office.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2008, 04:43:49 AM »



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.

Except you may notice there aren't any gray states with 9 or fewer EVs.

Arizona could be dumped if the candidate in question can count on the House to vote him into office.
He's proposing to win with the Green states.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2008, 11:24:29 PM »

I can't believe this thread is still at the top.
Logged
allnjhaugh
Rookie
**
Posts: 26
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2011, 06:57:44 PM »

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?

If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.
No, you would have 100% of the vote, but about 0.0001% of the electorate.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2011, 04:58:36 AM »

Well, for a bump, that's a bump. Tongue
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2011, 01:07:21 PM »

A bad reading comprehension bump, too.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2011, 08:26:23 PM »

If everyone but one person moved out of the other 49 states, and all 7 billion people on the earth moved to Wyoming, and, cloned themselves 100,000 times each...
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.064 seconds with 12 queries.