who do you THINK will win the Republican nomination?

[© tweed]

May 2006

George Allen 40.6%
John McCain 31.9%
Mitt Romney 8.7%
Rudy Giuliani 8.7%
Other 8.7%

August 2006

John McCain 39.5%
George Allen 21.1%
Mitt Romney 13.2%
Rudy Giuliani 13.2%
Other (excl. Rice) 13.2%

November 2006

John McCain 46.2%
Mitt Romney 23.1%
Rudy Giuliani 15.4%
Mike Huckabee 7.7%
Newt Gingrich 7.7%


March 2007

Rudy Giuliani 45.7%
John McCain 28.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.4%
Mitt Romney 5.7%
Sam Brownback 2.9%
Other (excl. Gingrich) 5.7%

April 2007

Fred Thompson 46.9%
Rudy Giuliani 26.5%
Mitt Romney 12.2%
John McCain 10.2%
Other (excl. Gingrich, Hagel) 4.1%

June 2007

Fred Thompson 34.2%
Rudy Giuliani 31.6%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
John McCain 5.3%
Mike Huckabee 5.3%
Ron Paul 2.6%

July 2007

Mitt Romney 40.9%
Rudy Giuliani 34.1%
Fred Thompson 22.7%
John McCain 2.3%

August 2007

Mitt Romney 42.6%
Rudy Giuliani 31.1%
Mike Huckabee 16.4%
Fred Thompson 4.9%
Ron Paul 4.9%

September 2007

Mitt Romney 52.4%
Rudy Giuliani 31%
Ron Paul 9.5%
Fred Thompson 4.8%
John McCain 2.4%

October 2007

Mitt Romney 44.9%
Rudy Giuliani 30.6%
Mike Huckabee 10.2%
Ron Paul 6.1%
Condoleeza Rice 4.1%
John McCain 2%
Fred Thompson 2%

November 2007

Mitt Romney 39.6%
Rudy Giuliani 27.1%
Mike Huckabee 25%
Ron Paul 4.2%
John McCain 2.1%
Condoleeza Rice 2.1%

December 21-23, 2007

Mitt Romney 36.2%
Mike Huckabee 36.2%
John McCain 17%
Rudy Giuliani 8.5%
Fred Thompson 2.1%

[Boris]

Romney, particularly if he can win Iowa. If he wins Iowa, he'll obviously beat McCain in New Hampshire. Romney is currently slightly behind Huckabee in South Carolina in terms of RCP averages; wins in Iowa and New Hampshire will surely propel him to victory there. I actually think he could have a pretty darn good shot at winning 40+ states.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney. I think he wins Iowa, and if he wins Iowa, he wins NH, and if he wins NH, he's won the nomination.

[MarkWarner08]

This again? Can't you wait till after Iowa and NH?  For now, I'm sticking with Mitt Romney for the same reasons I've mentioned previously.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney. I think he wins Iowa, and if he wins Iowa, he wins NH, and if he wins NH, he's won the nomination.

Mitt Romney will probably lose NH, but he 'll rebound in Michigan.

[© tweed]

This again? Can't you wait till after Iowa and NH?

the race is very different now than it was 10 days ago.  look at Intrade figures.  Huckabee has died a fast death and he tied for the lead in our last poll.

and just because I made this one now doesn't mean I can't make another on Jan 4 and Jan 9.  in fact, I plan to.

[MarkWarner08]

This again? Can't you wait till after Iowa and NH?

the race is very different now than it was 10 days ago.  look at Intrade figures.  Huckabee has died a fast death and he tied for the lead in our last poll.

and just because I made this one now doesn't mean I can't make another on Jan 4 and Jan 9.  in fact, I plan to.

The GOP race has been a state of flux for months -- but I agree that Huckabee's (rather predictable) demise has shaken up the race.

I've held steady with Mitt all the way and recent events have only reinforced my opinions.

[Sam Spade]

Either McCain or Giuliani, whoever unites against the Willard.  The Willard is essentially hated by every other Republican primary candidate and has a top, I suspect.

I always thought it would be Giuliani up until now, but McCain's resurgence has lead my gut to change and if I had to choose, it will be him.

[Kushahontas]

alan keyes b/c he is the republican with the best chance at winning in a 50 state landslide.

[Sam Spade]

alan keyes b/c he is the republican with the best chance at winning in a 50 state landslide.

extremely funny.

[MarkWarner08]

Either McCain or Giuliani, whoever unites against the Willard.  The Willard is essentially hated by every other Republican primary candidate and has a top, I suspect.

I always thought it would be Giuliani up until now, but McCain's resurgence has lead my gut to change and if I had to choose, it will be him.

McCain does have some unique advantages such as being the only Republican over endorsed by NH's most liberal and most conservative newspapers. I could see him pulling off a win-- but Mitt's money, organization, and institutional support is probably enough to ensure the Mormon wins.

[Erc]

For the first time ever, I'm predicting Romney.

But, for the first time in at least a month, we are looking at the serious prospect of a race in which Huckabee loses Iowa--and very few of us know what to expect.  Apart from a Romney sweep that is, but things won't be that simple.

[Sam Spade]

Either McCain or Giuliani, whoever unites against the Willard.  The Willard is essentially hated by every other Republican primary candidate and has a top, I suspect.

I always thought it would be Giuliani up until now, but McCain's resurgence has lead my gut to change and if I had to choose, it will be him.

McCain does have some unique advantages such as being the only Republican over endorsed by NH's most liberal and most conservative newspapers. I could see him pulling off a win-- but Mitt's money, organization, and institutional support is probably enough to ensure the Mormon wins.

What if the Rudy and Huckabee voters in NH decide after Iowa that Romney needs to be stopped, here and now, and desert en masse to McCain because he's the best option to do so.  It's happened before and there's no way in that scenario Romney can overcome them.  Moreover, I'm willing to bet that if you look at Rudy and Huckabee preferences in NH (not to mention nationally), McCain probably would destroy Romney head-to-head.

Look, Romney's been stuck at 30%-33% in NH for 6 months, even after tons and tons of advertising.  I have to give the Torie scenario some real credit here.  Besides, the ground game is always much less important in NH, IMHO, because the voters will show up.  Unlike Iowa.

Let me be frank for a second.  If Huckabee was not such an amateur in politics, he would have understood that he needed to counter Romney's ads in Iowa, instead of putting up this cross/bookshelf nonsense.  If he would have done that, he would still have his lead in Iowa, and probably would beat Romney.  Romney has not gained or lost anyone in Iowa in the past few weeks because he doesn't have to (and because I suspect, he can't).  With McCain and Giuliani not playing there, he gains more if Huckabee's voters simply don't show up.   Interestingly, Obama made the same mistake, but in a different set of circumstances.

OTOH, McCain is countering Romney at every turn in NH and now he clearly has the momentum and has had for a few weeks now.  This is what Huckabee should have been doing.  He was the anti-Romney candidate - now it's becoming McCain.  Voters will pick up on this in NH, IMHO.

This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

[MarkWarner08]

Either McCain or Giuliani, whoever unites against the Willard.  The Willard is essentially hated by every other Republican primary candidate and has a top, I suspect.

I always thought it would be Giuliani up until now, but McCain's resurgence has lead my gut to change and if I had to choose, it will be him.

McCain does have some unique advantages such as being the only Republican over endorsed by NH's most liberal and most conservative newspapers. I could see him pulling off a win-- but Mitt's money, organization, and institutional support is probably enough to ensure the Mormon wins.

What if the Rudy and Huckabee voters in NH decide after Iowa that Romney needs to be stopped, here and now, and desert en masse to McCain because he's the best option to do so.  It's happened before and there's no way in that scenario Romney can overcome them.  Moreover, I'm willing to bet that if you look at Rudy and Huckabee preferences in NH (not to mention nationally), McCain probably would destroy Romney head-to-head.

Look, Romney's been stuck at 30%-33% in NH for 6 months, even after tons and tons of advertising.  I have to give the Torie scenario some real credit here.  Besides, the ground game is always much less important in NH, IMHO, because the voters will show up.  Unlike Iowa.

Let me be frank for a second.  If Huckabee was not such an amateur in politics, he would have understood that he needed to counter Romney's ads in Iowa, instead of putting up this cross/bookshelf nonsense.  If he would have done that, he would still have his lead in Iowa, and probably would beat Romney.  Romney has not gained or lost anyone in Iowa in the past few weeks because he doesn't have to (and because I suspect, he can't).  With McCain and Giuliani not playing there, he gains more if Huckabee's voters simply don't show up.   Interestingly, Obama made the same mistake, but in a different set of circumstances.

OTOH, McCain is countering Romney at every turn in NH and now he clearly has the momentum and has had for a few weeks now.  This is what Huckabee should have been doing.  He was the anti-Romney candidate - now it's becoming McCain.  Voters will pick up on this in NH, IMHO.

This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

First, I agree with your prediction about NH. McCain wil probably win by several points, a victory that will sitfly Mitt's mo from Iowa.
Second, if Huck and Rudy do tag-team Mitt, then, yes, Romney will lose. However, I think Huck will be too weak after Iowa to have much of a role on the outcome.
Third, I agree with all your all other points -- Mitt has stalled in NH, McCain the war hero would crush Mitt the flipper in a one-to-one matchup, and Huckabee blew his lead.

Odds:
Romney: 45%
McCain: 30%
Giuliani: 20%
Huck/Thompson: 5%
Hunter/Paul/Keyes: 0%

[Reaganfan]

McCain.

[Sam Spade]

Just one minor comment to the above:

If Huck loses in Iowa and his support falls off a cliff, his supporters have to go somewhere.  They don't just disappear.  I think the polling evidence clearly shows that Huck's support nationally came from a combination of one-half Thompson supporters and one-half Giuliani supporters (yes!).

My gut, personally, says McCain or Giuliani is where they will go.  Thompson, I suspect, may drop out after Iowa.  His campaign is in bad money shape.  And I personally suspect Romney is still at the bottom of their list.  Try on jmcfst as a classic example.  Look at where he's gone.  Especially, if Hillary's road to the nomination becomes much clearer, electability will return to the forefront as an issue in choosing a Republican nominee.

Of course, if Huck wins in Iowa (which is not impossible), then things may act totally different.

[Sam Spade]

McCain.

The purveyor of "conventional Republican thought" has spoken.

[MarkWarner08]

Just one minor comment to the above:

If Huck loses in Iowa and his support falls off a cliff, his supporters have to go somewhere.  They don't just disappear.  I think the polling evidence clearly shows that Huck's support nationally came from a combination of one-half Thompson supporters and one-half Giuliani supporters (yes!).

My gut, personally, says McCain or Giuliani is where they will go.  Thompson, I suspect, may drop out after Iowa.  His campaign is in bad money shape.  And I personally suspect Romney is still at the bottom of their list.  Try on jmcfst as a classic example.  Look at where he's gone.  Especially, if Hillary's road to the nomination becomes much clearer, electability will return to the forefront as an issue in choosing a Republican nominee.

Of course, if Huck wins in Iowa (which is not impossible), then things may act totally different.

Therein lies the reason why I think Giuliani is still viable. If the half of the Thompson and Huckabee supporters go to Rudy, which is possible because of the foreign policy angle, the race will shift dramatically. Giuliani will win Florida and then probably win California, New York, Ilinois and some other delegate-rich states on Feb. 5th.

[Sam Spade]

Just one minor comment to the above:

If Huck loses in Iowa and his support falls off a cliff, his supporters have to go somewhere.  They don't just disappear.  I think the polling evidence clearly shows that Huck's support nationally came from a combination of one-half Thompson supporters and one-half Giuliani supporters (yes!).

My gut, personally, says McCain or Giuliani is where they will go.  Thompson, I suspect, may drop out after Iowa.  His campaign is in bad money shape.  And I personally suspect Romney is still at the bottom of their list.  Try on jmcfst as a classic example.  Look at where he's gone.  Especially, if Hillary's road to the nomination becomes much clearer, electability will return to the forefront as an issue in choosing a Republican nominee.

Of course, if Huck wins in Iowa (which is not impossible), then things may act totally different.

Therein lies the reason why I think Giuliani is still viable. If the half of the Thompson and Huckabee supporters go to Rudy, which is possible because of the foreign policy angle, the race will shift dramatically. Giuliani will win Florida and then probably win California, New York, Ilinois and some other delegate-rich states on Feb. 5th.

Of course.  I think we both agree on this point.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I hope so. I am looking at electability as well. While Rudy and I don't agree on a lot of social issues, they pale in comparison to foreign policy and fiscal policy, which we agree on. And I believe that only McCain and Giuliani have a chance at winning the general election against Hillary or Obama.

I have said this and will keep saying it: Once Hillary Clinton appears she will win the nomination (Barack is completely out of the way), then Rudy's campaign will also get back on its feet. Republicans want Rudy to face Hillary.

[Reluctant Republican]

McCain. I think Thompson will be out soon after NH, and I think it is likely he will endorse McCain. I also think Giuliani will collapse after being crushed in the first several  primaries and I think he’d be inclined to endorse McCain if the race is still competive. I don’t think Huckabee will go anywhere after Iowa, and I don’t see many of his supporters going to Romney after the fighting between the two of them. So in the end I see a race between Romney and McCain, and I think McCain would crush Romney fairly easily. Could just be wishful thinking though, but I don’t see many Huckabee, Thompson, or Giuliani voters going to Romney if those guys drop out.

[JSojourner]

I'm still saying Romney.  But if he falters, I think it's McCain or Huckabee.

[Likely Voter]

Romney....just follow the money

[Robespierre's Jaw]

For the first time I am predicting that former Governor of Arkansas Mike Dale Huckabee. Based on yet another gut feeling of mine. If he doesn't get it, Romney will. And the Democratic Party will be happy with either Romney or Huckabee as the GOP nominee this year. Giuliani doesn't have a chance and McCain will only be in it if he manages to win New Hampshire.

[Aizen]

I voted Huckabee last time (Romney before that) and I'm voting for Romney again. Huckabee comes next and McCain has an outaide shot. Giuliani is really done at this point. He is NOT coming back in an way, shape or form. And who else... oh right Thompson. He has 0% chance of doing anything. Lazy bastard.