Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee

[Verily]

Democrats
Obama 32 (+4)
Clinton 25 (nc)
Edwards 24 (+1)
Richardson 6 (-3)
Biden 4 (-2)
Dodd 2 (+1)
Kucinich 1 (nc)
Gravel 0 (nc)
Unsure 6 (-1)

Republicans
Huckabee 32 (+3)
Romney 26 (+2)
McCain 13 (+6)
Paul 9 (+2)
Thompson 9 (-5)
Giuliani 5 (-8)
Hunter 1 (nc)
Keyes 1 (+1)
Cox 0 (nc)
[Tancredo 0 (-6)]
Unsure 4 (nc)

http://beta.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044/-1/iowapoll07

Democratic Primary Poll

Republican Primary Poll

[Eraserhead]

Guys, I want to hug you all right now.

[Meeker]

Bah.

One poll of many. I remain confident.

[Eraserhead]

Bah.

One poll of many. I remain confident.

lolz only the best poll.

[Lief 🗽]

It goes against every other poll out there, but okay. We'll see in three days.

[Meeker]

Bah.

One poll of many. I remain confident.

lolz only the best poll.

What happened to MD being the best poll?

Oh right... Edwards was up.

[Eraserhead]

By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging.

[Verily]

By the way... Giuliani in 6th? Behind Thompson and Paul? And people think he might win the nomination?

[Eraserhead]

Bah.

One poll of many. I remain confident.

lolz only the best poll.

What happened to MD being the best poll?

Oh right... Edwards was up.

You mean tied with Clinton and Obama. A point hardly means anything.

The DMR poll is considered the best in Iowa at least. I just hope expectations for Obama don't shoot up too high after this.

[Lief 🗽]

By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging.

Just like the DMR endorsement helped Clinton so much? There's not going to be massive coverage of this poll: most people don't even know that it's significant.

[Meeker]

Bah.

One poll of many. I remain confident.

lolz only the best poll.

What happened to MD being the best poll?

Oh right... Edwards was up.

You mean tied with Clinton and Obama. A point hardly means anything.

The DMR poll is considered the best in Iowa at least. I just hope expectations for Obama don't shoot up too high after this.

Ok, I was mainly poking fun, but for the record I didn't say leading, I said "up". He was up three points, from third to first and Obama was down three points from second to third.

[Eraserhead]

By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging.

Just like the DMR endorsement helped Clinton so much? There's not going to be massive coverage of this poll: most people don't even know that it's significant.

Try watching the news tomorrow and not hearing about it.

[Meeker]

Lol, 1/3 could still change their minds. What a crazy race.

[© tweed]

I was about to declare the Obama campaign dead.  who the f*** knows what's going to happen.  this is fun.

[Eraserhead]

I was about to declare the Obama campaign dead.  who the f*** knows what's going to happen.  this is fun.

Agreed.

[Reluctant Republican]

Good, I want Huckabee to win to put some serious hurt on Romney's campaign.

I also agree this is a pretty exciting time, but I can't help but feel the primaries themselves are going to be major downers. I really would not be suprised if Hillary and Romney win in Iowa and then just go on to win everything else. Let's hope for a bit more drama then that, though.

[Eraserhead]

More good news:

"An analysis of likely caucusgoers' second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners."

[© tweed]

final DMR poll from 04

Kerry 26
Edwards 23
Dean 20
Gephardt 18

[Lief 🗽]

Does the thinking that DMR is by-far the best come from anything besides 2004 results? Because
Pollster kinda refutes that.

[agcatter]

Boss, thanks for flashback to the 2004 poll.  They definitely nailed the order then and lends credibility to this year's poll.  Very exciting race in both parties.

Interesting that Huck is still up.  If this poll holds true, Romney is seriously hurt in NH.  That coupled with a third place finish in Iowa for McCain may propel McCain to victory in NH.  If that happens, McCain has the big mo and Romney could be eliminated.

One caution however on the Dem side.  Obama's support is younger voters and usually they don't turn out as well.  If Obama's organization can turn those voters out, he could have a very good night and from there would be the odds on favorite to take NH.

I didn't expect these result on either side in this poll.

[Flying Dog]

Some interesting findings:

Clinton only gets 16% of the male vote. Obama and Edwards split the rest 31-30

Obama and clinton split the female vote 32-32 each.

Obama leads overwhelmingly among 18-34, getting 56%.

Polling trends

                       27-28       28-29      29-30   

Obama             29%          33%        34%

Clinton              27%          24%         23%

Edwards           23%           24%          26%

[Eraserhead]

Some interesting findings:

Clinton only gets 16% of the male vote. Obama and Edwards split the rest 31-30

Obama and clinton split the female vote 32-32 each.

Obama leads overwhelmingly among 18-34, getting 56%.

Polling trends

                       27-28       28-29      29-30   

Obama             29%          33%        34%

Clinton              27%          24%         23%

Edwards           23%           24%          26%

I like the trends.

Hopefully we will get my original prediction: Obama in first, Edwards in second and Clinton in a miserable third.

[agcatter]

Agreed that if Obama and Edwards finish 1 and 2, Hillary suddenly has BIG problems in NH (which she may lose anyway) and then in SC.  By then the national polls will have moved massively towards Obama and Hillary could be buried.  Big mo on your side is a powerful force in the primaries.  Just ask John Kerry.

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama leads overwhelmingly among 18-34, getting 56%.

If this demographic turns out, Obama wins by at least a few percentage points. That number is pretty damn amazing in the big primary like this.

[Verily]

Does the thinking that DMR is by-far the best come from anything besides 2004 results? Because
Pollster kinda refutes that.

They had the highest Kerry score, the highest Edwards score and the second-lowest Dean score (and, in each case, closest/second-closest to the accurate result). They were only really off on Gephardt, and it may have simply been that he failed to reach viability in a lot of places and distributed mostly to Kerry and Edwards (both logical conclusions, IMO).