Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee

[Politico]

The youth bloc that is backing Obama were relatively fickle four years ago when they were backing Dean. It's hard to count on youth in elections. Also, the poll shows that a third of voters may change their mind over the next couple of days. That is the silver lining that leads me to believe we are seeing the "Bradley Effect" in action. We will know Thursday night.

[Politico]

The Bradley effect is pretty small in the first place, even smaller amongst Democrats, and even smaller than that amongst Democrats committed enough to go to the caucus.  It won't be an issue.

While I agree that the Bradley effect is small in Democrat primaries and caucuses compared to in general elections, I disagree that the Bradley effect is completely negligible among Democratic voters. I believe it may very well be relatively significant, particularly in predominantly caucasian states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, for example. Go read up on the polls that pitted Jesse Jackson against Michael Dukakis in 1988, especially in places like Wisconsin, and compare them to the actual results. There is no doubt the Bradly effect was significant in 1988 in a number of Democratic primaries and caucuses.

As for 2008, this is merely a suspicion on my part. I may be wrong, and I actually hope that I am. We will find out Thursday.

[Politico]

One word.... "spooked".

Very odd response IMHO, you simply shouldnt get distracted by a single poll... if they are responding in this way then it strikes me as very defensive and suggesting the Edwards campaign is feelin shaky (which is strange to say the least).

The campaign is obviously not distracted by a single poll. That does not mean some within the campaign are not analyzing every single poll.

The polls that really matter are the tracking polls for today and tomorrow. With the holidays out of the way, caucus goers are going to get real serious now.