Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee

[Eraserhead]

Guys, I want to hug you all right now.

[Eraserhead]

Bah.

One poll of many. I remain confident.

lolz only the best poll.

[Eraserhead]

By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging.

[Eraserhead]

Bah.

One poll of many. I remain confident.

lolz only the best poll.

What happened to MD being the best poll?

Oh right... Edwards was up.

You mean tied with Clinton and Obama. A point hardly means anything.

The DMR poll is considered the best in Iowa at least. I just hope expectations for Obama don't shoot up too high after this.

[Eraserhead]

By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging.

Just like the DMR endorsement helped Clinton so much? There's not going to be massive coverage of this poll: most people don't even know that it's significant.

Try watching the news tomorrow and not hearing about it.

[Eraserhead]

I was about to declare the Obama campaign dead.  who the f*** knows what's going to happen.  this is fun.

Agreed.

[Eraserhead]

More good news:

"An analysis of likely caucusgoers' second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners."

[Eraserhead]

Some interesting findings:

Clinton only gets 16% of the male vote. Obama and Edwards split the rest 31-30

Obama and clinton split the female vote 32-32 each.

Obama leads overwhelmingly among 18-34, getting 56%.

Polling trends

                       27-28       28-29      29-30   

Obama             29%          33%        34%

Clinton              27%          24%         23%

Edwards           23%           24%          26%

I like the trends.

Hopefully we will get my original prediction: Obama in first, Edwards in second and Clinton in a miserable third.

[Eraserhead]

Edwards is back on the defensive I see.

[Eraserhead]

One word.... "spooked".

Very odd response IMHO, you simply shouldnt get distracted by a single poll... if they are responding in this way then it strikes me as very defensive and suggesting the Edwards campaign is feelin shaky (which is strange to say the least).

The campaign is obviously not distracted by a single poll. That does not mean some within the campaign are not analyzing every single poll.

The polls that really matter are the tracking polls for today and tomorrow. With the holidays out of the way, caucus goers are going to get real serious now.

Since they are Zogby, I'm inclined to disagree. We shall see though.

[Eraserhead]

I actually agree with Edwards' people.  Too many first-time voters, too any young voters.  Kind of chronic during caucus polling.  I think Clinton is probably in the best position coming into IA (relative to the results here), but we'll see.

Hillary leads by 6% among Democrats. If those indys don't show up for Obama...

Yeah.  Hillary has Democrats and the most likely caucusgoing demographics.  Edwards has...well, I'm not quite sure what he has, and I think he's biggest wildcard.  I haven't seen internals on whether his supporters tend to be liberal anti-war Democrats, or independents who think he's moderate.  The more it's the former, the better for him.

Then again, Vorlon seems to disagree, and he's the Last Word.

He is predicting an Obama victory correct?

[Eraserhead]

But I still think Iowa is Edwards' to lose simply because pretty much every poll that has been done on second choices show him with a clear lead over Obama and Hillary. So I'm going to stand by my prediction of an Edwards victory, Obama taking second place, and Hillary falling in third.

2nd Choices could actually benefit Obama if supporters of Kucinich, Richardson and Biden follower  the advice of their candidates and caucas 2nd choice for Obama. (This is, of course, only if the rumors prove to be true)

If these rumors turn out to be true, Iowa could be a blowout on the Demoratic side. We shall see. I'm not buying it yet.

[Eraserhead]

Des Moines Reigster wins again.

Ann Salazar = Poll God.