Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee (user search)
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  Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee (search mode)
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Author Topic: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee  (Read 6314 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« on: December 31, 2007, 10:00:08 PM »
« edited: January 02, 2008, 04:08:47 PM by Dave Leip »

Democrats
Obama 32 (+4)
Clinton 25 (nc)
Edwards 24 (+1)
Richardson 6 (-3)
Biden 4 (-2)
Dodd 2 (+1)
Kucinich 1 (nc)
Gravel 0 (nc)
Unsure 6 (-1)

Republicans
Huckabee 32 (+3)
Romney 26 (+2)
McCain 13 (+6)
Paul 9 (+2)
Thompson 9 (-5)
Giuliani 5 (-8)
Hunter 1 (nc)
Keyes 1 (+1)
Cox 0 (nc)
[Tancredo 0 (-6)]
Unsure 4 (nc)

http://beta.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044/-1/iowapoll07

Democratic Primary Poll

Republican Primary Poll

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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2007, 10:04:46 PM »

By the way... Giuliani in 6th? Behind Thompson and Paul? And people think he might win the nomination?
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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2007, 11:33:24 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2007, 11:36:25 PM by Verily »

Does the thinking that DMR is by-far the best come from anything besides 2004 results? Because
Pollster kinda refutes that.

They had the highest Kerry score, the highest Edwards score and the second-lowest Dean score (and, in each case, closest/second-closest to the accurate result). They were only really off on Gephardt, and it may have simply been that he failed to reach viability in a lot of places and distributed mostly to Kerry and Edwards (both logical conclusions, IMO).
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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2008, 12:51:06 AM »
« Edited: January 01, 2008, 12:53:14 AM by Verily »

Comfortable leads by Obama and Huckabee. Interesting. I don't know if I buy that or the fact that Paul is tied with Thompson and beating Rudy.

The Giuliani numbers are consistent with most of the polls of Iowa lately; they reflect the fact that he abandoned the state back in August and hasn't run a single ad or made a single appearance since.

The Paul numbers are a little high but not that surprising. He has built up quite a following, although generally pollsters register a small segment of the population with extremely enthusiastic support for Paul, but every other voter rules him out uncategorically (and therefore I think it reasonably likely for him to manage 6-10% in Iowa, but definitely not above 10% in any early state while turnout is still high because the nomination is still up for grabs).

The Thompson numbers are also consistent with other polls. He's uninspiring and a wretched campaigner.
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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2008, 02:29:35 AM »

Given that all of the polls showing Edwards even in contention were holiday-period polls, I don't see how Edwards can explain away third place as it being the holidays...
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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2008, 10:51:52 PM »


They didn't quite nail the order this time, though they did get that Obama would be well ahead of Clinton and Edwards. Zogby (!) nailed the order but predicted a much more even split between candidates.
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