Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee

[Lief 🗽]

It goes against every other poll out there, but okay. We'll see in three days.

[Lief 🗽]

By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging.

Just like the DMR endorsement helped Clinton so much? There's not going to be massive coverage of this poll: most people don't even know that it's significant.

[Lief 🗽]

Does the thinking that DMR is by-far the best come from anything besides 2004 results? Because
Pollster kinda refutes that.

[Lief 🗽]

So, it'll all come down to turnout. If there's heavy turnout with many independents, like the DMR thinks, Obama wins. If there's lower turnout and the youth vote is disappointing once again, then either Clinton or Edwards takes it.

[Lief 🗽]

I wouldn't go so far as to call the polling inaccurate (though if the poll did run Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, isn't four days normally a little long for a poll?). It's just a matter of what turnout model you want to use. There's a good chance we'll see heavy turnout, with many new voters: the weather's going to be good (well, for Iowa: this Texas boy doesn't understand how anyone can call 28 degree, windy weather "nice"), the Democratic base is more energized than ever and young people really like Obama. It's just that new voters and young voters have proven over and over again to be disappointing when it actually comes time to vote.

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, on further examination of these internals, this poll seems way, way off. Even if you're being liberal with turnout numbers, I don't think that there's anyway that 45% of voters in Iowa Democratic caucus will be non-Democrats (40% Ind, 5% Rep). In 2004, only 20% were non-Democrats (19% Ind, 1% Rep). Also, 60%, according to DMR, will be first time voters. In 2004, about 45% were first time voters (but this large number was understandable, as there hadn't been a competitive Democratic caucus since 1988). Lastly, this poll is predicting a huge, record turnout of 180,000.

I don't know. On Thursday, these DMR pollers are either going to look like prophets or hacks.