official Iowa Democratic results thread

[© Tweed the Younger]

because I thought it'd be a good idea to have two separate threads.

[Mr. Morden]

Will the entrance poll results be discussed in here?  Or is it only for the real results?

[© Tweed the Younger]

Will the entrance poll results be discussed in here?  Or is it only for the real results?

do what's in your heart, kid.

[Meeker]

I don't know if this is the place to put it, but MSNBC says that Clinton campaign is expecting second.

[Ben.]

I don't know if this is the place to put it, but MSNBC says that Clinton campaign is expecting second.

Interesting....

[Sibboleth]

I don't know if this is the place to put it, but MSNBC says that Clinton campaign is expecting second.

Interesting....

Nah, it's just spin. If she comes first then can then claim that she did better than expected. If she comes second they can then pass off (or try to) a bad result as the expected one. And if she comes third, they can attempt to pass off a fiasco as being merely slightly worse than expected.

[Lief]

When are we supposed to start seeing results? As soon as individual precincts are done voting, when the entire caucus is over, or do we just get the entire thing from the Iowa Democratic party at once?

[So the Heroes Fall]

When does it start? 7PM?

[Mr. Morden]

As I posted in another thread:

Link:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/03/545314.aspx

The caucuses will be called to order at 7:30 pm ET (6:30 pm local time) on the Democratic side, and they begin at 8:00 pm ET (7:00 pm local time) on the GOP side.

Presumably the entrance polls will come out *very* soon after the caucuses are called to order.

Don't know exactly when real results will come out, but here's a thread from 2004 discussing Iowa results:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=426.15

and zorkpolitics posted the first results (13% of precincts reporting in) at 8:47pm Eastern.  Also, this blog post from National Review:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTY0OGJjMGUwYzNkNmFlMWYwN2Y3YjBjOTk5MWIzNTg=

has 32% of precincts reporting at 8:54 Eastern back in 2004.  Don't know if the caucus start time was the same back then, and don't know if the GOP results would come out on a similar timeline.

[Mr. Morden]

Found this from 2004:

http://www.johnson-county.com/auditor/voter/caucus04.htm

The Democrats and Republicans have both scheduled the caucuses for 6:30 p.m., a change from the traditional 7:00 start time.

(Presumably, they're talking about Central Time there.)

So that means that four years ago, the actual results started coming out fast just ~1hr 15 min. or so after the caucuses started.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Bill Richardson just went on CNN and announced no second-flow endorsement.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I hear we will probably get the Republican results in first.

[Lief]

Yeah, that'd make sense, since it's just a straw poll. I'd imagine the Democratic vote for president takes 10 or 20 minutes, depending on how many people are there.

[Platypus]

eraserhead-almost certainly, due to the multi-staged process the Democrats use.
lief-the fastest take about 20 minutes. They can go for over two hours.

[Lief]

Really? Wow. Does that include the other issues they vote on, after the presidential candidate?

[YRABNNRM]

Hugh, who will you be voting for this time around?

[Platypus]

Really? Wow. Does that include the other issues they vote on, after the presidential candidate?

Yep. That doesnt mean the results are know after the presidential nomination, though...

[Meeker]

http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

Also, the caucus guidelines specifically tell the precinct captains to tall the toll-free results hotline before they proceed to other business.

[Platypus]

Hugh, who will you be voting for this time around?

I was thinking of voting Dean, but I think Edwards would be better because he can win Kentucky but Dean couldn't.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I'm glad we'll get the Republican results first. I'm very interested in seeing what they are but really they are just the appetizer tonight (so to speak).

[Likely Voter]

I dont remember from previous times, but will we learn what the first results were vs. the final results...after the below 15% people were asked to pick 2nd choices

[Meeker]

Politico says their sources say Dodd told Fox that if he doesn't get fourth tonight "he'll be doing to Hartford".

[Sam Spade]

Politico says their sources say Dodd told Fox that if he doesn't get fourth tonight "he'll be doing to Hartford".

In other words, Dodd will be "doing to Hartford"...

[Meeker]

Politico says their sources say Dodd told Fox that if he doesn't get fourth tonight "he'll be doing to Hartford".

In other words, Dodd will be "doing to Hartford"...

Oops, "going" to Hartford.

[Tender Branson]

"Doing to Hartford"?  Do New Englanders really talk like that?  I would say "I'm going to Hartford".  Do they say "I'm doing to the store" or "I'm doing to the caucus" too?