BREAKING-MS: Musgrove will run for Senate

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't really see any way that he wins, but at least he's going to run:

OXFORD, Miss. --Former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove confirmed to The Associated Press on Friday that he will run for the U.S. Senate.

Musgrove plans to hold a series of news conferences Monday in Tupelo, Jackson, Hattiesburg and Gulfport.

"I'll be announcing, yes," Musgrove told the AP in a telephone interview from his law office in Madison County.

http://www.sunherald.com/306/story/279284.html

Maybe if Obama runs he can get a record high black turnout? What is the ceiling for a Democrat running for president in Mississippi, about 48%?

[Mr.Phips]

He will get a big boost if Obama is the nominee. 

[7,052,770]

Senator Musgrove, here we come

[TheresNoMoney]

Senator Musgrove, here we come

You're kidding, right? By the way, what do you think Barack Obama could get in Mississippi? Any conceivable chance he could win on record-high black turnout?

[7,052,770]

I HIGHLY doubt Obama would have a chance, but Mississippians have a history of splitting their ballots.  Gene Taylor always gets +60% in a district where Bush does as well.  Haley Barbour gets 58% while Jim Hood gets over 60%.

[Verily]

Senator Musgrove, here we come

You're kidding, right? By the way, what do you think Barack Obama could get in Mississippi? Any conceivable chance he could win on record-high black turnout?

Absolutely no way. Even if black turnout surpassed white turnout and there was a swing of a couple of points to Obama in both demographics, highly unlikely even under ideal circumstances, Obama would still be about 4% short of winning Mississippi.

I will say, however, that race may indeed be a factor in Mississippi in a way it isn't in states where the election is decided, although given the incredibly strong racial voting patterns in MS already (around 80% of whites vote GOP and around 90% of blacks vote Dem), that may have no significant impact.

[7,052,770]

Senator Musgrove, here we come

You're kidding, right? By the way, what do you think Barack Obama could get in Mississippi? Any conceivable chance he could win on record-high black turnout?

Absolutely no way. Even if black turnout surpassed white turnout and there was a swing of a couple of points to Obama in both demographics, highly unlikely even under ideal circumstances, Obama would still be about 4% short of winning Mississippi.

Yeah.  If Guiliani were the nominee and the Religious Right organized a mass boycott of the election, and blacks shattered record turnout marks, then he MIGHT have a chance.  Short of that very unlikely scenario, we need to concentrate on winning Mississippi in the SENATE race, not the presidential one.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, if Bloomberg runs, I'd imagine he wouldn't have a lot of black support, so he might be able to chip a few percentage points of the Republican in Mississippi, allowing Obama to squeak in with a plurality.

[7,052,770]

Well, if Bloomberg runs, I'd imagine he wouldn't have a lot of black support, so he might be able to chip a few percentage points of the Republican in Mississippi, allowing Obama to squeak in with a plurality.

No one in Mississippi is going to vote for Bloomberg.

[TheresNoMoney]

What is the black population in Mississippi? About 40% of the electorate?

[Verily]

Well, if Bloomberg runs, I'd imagine he wouldn't have a lot of black support, so he might be able to chip a few percentage points of the Republican in Mississippi, allowing Obama to squeak in with a plurality.

Maybe, but I don't see it. The South is easily the most partisanly loyal area in the country; see the 1992 and 1980 results for Perot and Anderson. Of course, it goes back much further than that, but citing Roosevelt in 1912 might be seen as stretching history to modern standards, given the overwhelming dominance of the Solid South by Democrats at the time. Still, the principle is the same.

[Verily]

What is the black population in Mississippi? About 40% of the electorate?

37%

[Lief 🗽]

Well, Perot got 8% in MS. If Bloomberg gets 25-30% of the national popular vote, he could get double digits in Mississippi. Of course, I have no idea where Perot's 8% came from.

[Verily]

Well, Perot got 8% in MS. If Bloomberg gets 25-30% of the national popular vote, he could get double digits in Mississippi. Of course, I have no idea where Perot's 8% came from.

Comparing 1992 to 1996, Perot went down by 4% and Clinton went up by 4% with Republicans not changing at all, which would suggest that Perot's voters were either mostly black or mostly some of the few white Democrats (the latter seems more likely to me, actually), but without an exit poll one can't say for certain. His candidacy certainly didn't help Democrats, though Bloomberg's would be of a very different tone.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This will at least give us a fighting chance.  If it's Obama v. Romney, then he might be able to slip in based on the large black turnout and the possibility of Southern Evangelicals not going to the polls at all.

[AndrewTX]

D +12

[Ben.]

With no Moore or Hood, Musgrove is about the only other viable candidate the Dems could hope for... still strong lean to the GOP.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Barack Obama would be capable of getting up to 43% of the vote in Mississippi I would predict, which is what Bill Clinton managed in 1996.  Who knows?  If African-American turnout rises in a big way with the first black ever nominated for President and young people, who gave Kerry a majority in Mississippi in 2004, are inspired to vote, Obama could surprise many people in the South, not just Missisippi.  I'm not going to go as far as saying he could win, but he could potentially do better than just about any Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter.  Up to 46% of the vote in Mississippi and South Carolina.  Around 43% of the vote in Alabama.  He could tap into Harold Ford, Jr's base of support in Tenessee and get 45%-47% there.

Anyway regardless, I'm pleased Musgrove is running.  It gives Democrats at least a viable shot at the seat.  I'd like to see some polling - I'd predict that Wicker would lead Musgrove about 43%-40%, or possibly lower, with many undecided.  I wouldn't be surprised if the race ended up mirroring Trent Lott vs. Wayne Dowdy in 1988, about 54%-45% for Wicker. 

[JSojourner]

Adlai says...>>Anyway regardless, I'm pleased Musgrove is running.  It gives Democrats at least a viable shot at the seat.<<


I think so, too.  Obama's only chance at the state is a Republican collapse of McGovernesque proportions.  And even then, if the Huckster is on the ticket?  Not likely.

But Musgrove?  I dunno.  I think we're looking at a formerly SAFE R seat that is now LEAN R.

[MarkWarner08]

He must have heard some good news on the Hood legal front. This is quite surprising...

[Jake]

What is the ceiling for a Democrat running for president in Mississippi, about 48%?

Short of the rapture happening before November, low to mid 40s.

[Rococo4]

good luck sir.  good luck getting to the 43-44% mark.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is the ceiling for a Democrat running for president in Mississippi, about 48%?

Short of the rapture happening before November, low to mid 40s.

The disturbing part is that the floor is only a few points below the ceiling...

[Sensei]

There's no way Obama, or any other Democrat gets even close to a win in Mississippi. Us Dems should just keep our hopes up for Musgrove, where there is at least a possibility.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What is the ceiling for a Democrat running for president in Mississippi, about 48%?

Assuming there is no third party candidate, I would say somewhere between 40-46%.