Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 24, 2014, 09:43:11 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
| | | |-+  Obama v. McCain...
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Obama v. McCain...  (Read 10070 times)
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« on: January 06, 2008, 09:30:01 pm »
Ignore

What do you expect?
This is what I expect...


Though this isn't all that unreasonable-

- think of this as a tribute to BRTD...
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2008, 09:34:38 pm »
Ignore

No way McCain wins Iowa before New Hampshire, Nevada or probably even Pennsylvania (or a few other states for that matter).

Ethanol, anyone?
Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13621
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2008, 09:37:44 pm »
Ignore

What do you expect?
This is what I expect...


This map looks reasonable.  Certainly more so than the other one....  Tongue
Logged

Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10149
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2008, 09:43:34 pm »
Ignore

I believe McCain would not do that good. Obama will take all the Ind vote away from him(which is where McCain's main support come from.
Logged
Chris B
cb48026
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 708


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2008, 10:15:34 pm »
Ignore

The first map seems realistic. I do think McCain would beat Obama in that general election match-up.
Logged
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2008, 10:07:10 am »
Ignore

Hey, what makes everyone think that this matchup will be the same as the last?
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
politicaltipster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 268
View Profile WWW
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2008, 10:30:20 am »
Ignore

I believe that McCain (esp a McCain/Lieberman ticket) would crush Obama

McCain would get 55% (B/C in 2004 + PA, MI, NH,CT,DE,WI,MN & OR)

1. Remember the entusiasm that McCovern generated or the fact that many people believed that Reagan would lose in 1984?

2. Congress

3. McCain's ability to get things done and build coaltions.

4. Indys and Repubs tactically voting against Clinton in IA actually shows the strength of the base.

5. Students will get bored between now and Novemeber.

6. Obama's problems with Blue collar voters and his weakness on national security.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/why-a-mccain-vs-obama-contest-could-result-in-a-republican-landslide/
« Last Edit: January 07, 2008, 10:48:26 am by politicaltipster »Logged

Visit http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/ for advice on poltical betting.
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2008, 10:36:44 am »
Ignore

I believe that McCain (esp a McCain/Lieberman ticket) would crush Obama

McCain would get 55% (B/C in 2004 + PA, MI, NH,CT,DE,WI,MN & OR)

1. Remember the entusiasm that McCovern generated or the fact that many people believed that Reagan would lose in 1984?

2. Congress

3. McCain's ability to get things done and build coaltion.

4. Indys and Repubs tactically voting against Clinton in IA actually shows the strength of the base.

5. Students will get bored between now and Novemeber.

6. Obama's problems with Blue collar voters and his weakness on national security.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/why-a-mccain-vs-obama-contest-could-result-in-a-republican-landslide/

Hey, it could happen. But Clinton was also very young and won in an EV landslide. Again, this is experience vs. change. Obama could win with a "now or never" pitch.
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
opebo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47609


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2008, 10:53:15 am »
Ignore

McCain wins big on the back of America's profound and undying racism:

Logged

The essence of democracy at its purest is a lynch mob

MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2008, 11:07:30 am »
Ignore

...do you think the Obama candidacy would create a racist reaction? i.e. calls for segregation ..etc...
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
Wakie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3809


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2008, 12:00:54 pm »
Ignore

McCain would win.  It is too easy to contrast the difference in experience between these guys.  I am FAR from being a conservative and I would strongly consider voting McCain in this race.
Logged
Ebowed
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16396
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -8.32, S: -9.30

View Profile WWW
« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2008, 12:02:57 pm »
Ignore

...do you think the Obama candidacy would create a racist reaction? i.e. calls for segregation ..etc...

It wouldn't be overt, but I'm sure there will be subtle ads accusing Obama of drug dealing, for example.  Look at the anti-Harold Ford ad in Tennessee.
Logged

A tidal wave of healthcare has swept across coal country. 
Snowguy716
snowguy716
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -8.52

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2008, 12:05:00 pm »
Ignore

Minnesota Republicans like McCain.  Democrats will really warm up to Obama.  Democrats, no matter which way you slice it, outnumber Republicans in the state by a pretty good margin.

Unless McCain draws the majority of independents (unlikely with such strong competition from Obama), Minnesota EASILY goes for Obama.

The only thing Minnesotans like more than a maverick war hero is an underdog with a concern for the little guy.
Logged

"Above and beyond the question of how to grow the economy there is a legitimate concern about how to grow the quality of our lives."
-Paul Wellstone


Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10149
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2008, 12:58:09 pm »
Ignore

McCain will not win. He main support comes from Ind voters. Obama will take most of them away from McCain.  McCain isn't that popular with the republicans at all.
Logged
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2008, 04:47:32 pm »
Ignore

Although Obama is begining to not do so well in Iowa... I could come down to either Huckabee or Romney at this rate...
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
Jeff from NC
Full Member
***
Posts: 180


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 07, 2008, 06:15:24 pm »
Ignore

1. Remember the entusiasm that McCovern generated or the fact that many people believed that Reagan would lose in 1984?

Eh.  Remember how everyone thought George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan were lightweights?

Quote
2. Congress

Fair.  McCain will do well to run against Congress, because people do seem to prefer divided government.  However Jimmy Carter also ran against Washington gridlock - even when it was caused by his own party.  It worked.

Quote
3. McCain's ability to get things done and build coaltions.

Also fair, although his major legislative works, bills on immigration and campaign spending, don't exactly ignite passion among Republicans.  He's also well-known for voting against the Bush tax-cuts.

Quote
4. Indys and Repubs tactically voting against Clinton in IA actually shows the strength of the base.

Is this a documented phenomenon?

Quote
5. Students will get bored between now and Novemeber.

A large part of this country is also bored with the war.

Quote
6. Obama's problems with Blue collar voters and his weakness on national security.

I don't know if there are a lot of blue collar voters in Illinois, but when it came to the Democratic primary in the Senate race, he blew all of his opponents out of the water and did well downstate, which is full of white voters.  I'd say that speaks to his crossover appeal.  As for national security, McCain has some advantage there but he is on record supporting a war that most Americans want to end sooner rather than later.

I'd predict something more like this:



  • Colorado is a tossup.  It has an increasingly Democratic electorate, but I'm not sure yet if they would vote for someone as liberal as Obama.
  • Florida is McCain country.  Katherine Harris's problems were personal and the state remains a bright spot for Republicans, I think.
  • Louisiana is a tossup.  There simply hasn't been a national election held there since Katrina.  Jindal's victory could be seen as a vote against Democrats or a vote against incumbents; let's also not forget that it shows that Louisiana voters aren't as racist as some may think.
  • Missouri is Democratic.  It voted for Clinton, recently tossed out Jim Talent, and is probably ready for a fellow Midwesterner.
  • Ohio is Democratic.  I would list it as a tossup, but Bush only narrowly carried the state and the Ohio GOP utterly collapsed last year, when Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland won easy victories.  McCain has national security credibility, but that type of credibility only just put Republicans over the edge in 2004 and it won't do so again.
  • Nevada is a tossup.  See Colorado.
  • New Hampshire is Democratic.  It switched teams from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004, and dropped both GOP Congressmen in 2006.  I don't see any indication why this should change.
  • New Mexico is Democratic.  McCain is from a neighboring state, which helps, but not too much.  Remember that New Mexico voted for DC's Gore over Texas's Bush, and nearly did the same for Kerry.  In addition, the high number of Hispanics who are tired of the Republican party will push Obama over the top.
  • Pennsylvania is Democratic.  At the risk of oversimplifying the state, it seems a lot like Ohio, only a smidgen more favorable to Democrats.
Logged
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2008, 06:39:01 pm »
Ignore

1. Remember the entusiasm that McCovern generated or the fact that many people believed that Reagan would lose in 1984?

Eh.  Remember how everyone thought George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan were lightweights?

Quote
2. Congress

Fair.  McCain will do well to run against Congress, because people do seem to prefer divided government.  However Jimmy Carter also ran against Washington gridlock - even when it was caused by his own party.  It worked.

Quote
3. McCain's ability to get things done and build coaltions.

Also fair, although his major legislative works, bills on immigration and campaign spending, don't exactly ignite passion among Republicans.  He's also well-known for voting against the Bush tax-cuts.

Quote
4. Indys and Repubs tactically voting against Clinton in IA actually shows the strength of the base.

Is this a documented phenomenon?

Quote
5. Students will get bored between now and Novemeber.

A large part of this country is also bored with the war.

Quote
6. Obama's problems with Blue collar voters and his weakness on national security.

I don't know if there are a lot of blue collar voters in Illinois, but when it came to the Democratic primary in the Senate race, he blew all of his opponents out of the water and did well downstate, which is full of white voters.  I'd say that speaks to his crossover appeal.  As for national security, McCain has some advantage there but he is on record supporting a war that most Americans want to end sooner rather than later.

I'd predict something more like this:



  • Colorado is a tossup.  It has an increasingly Democratic electorate, but I'm not sure yet if they would vote for someone as liberal as Obama.
  • Florida is McCain country.  Katherine Harris's problems were personal and the state remains a bright spot for Republicans, I think.
  • Louisiana is a tossup.  There simply hasn't been a national election held there since Katrina.  Jindal's victory could be seen as a vote against Democrats or a vote against incumbents; let's also not forget that it shows that Louisiana voters aren't as racist as some may think.
  • Missouri is Democratic.  It voted for Clinton, recently tossed out Jim Talent, and is probably ready for a fellow Midwesterner.
  • Ohio is Democratic.  I would list it as a tossup, but Bush only narrowly carried the state and the Ohio GOP utterly collapsed last year, when Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland won easy victories.  McCain has national security credibility, but that type of credibility only just put Republicans over the edge in 2004 and it won't do so again.
  • Nevada is a tossup.  See Colorado.
  • New Hampshire is Democratic.  It switched teams from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004, and dropped both GOP Congressmen in 2006.  I don't see any indication why this should change.
  • New Mexico is Democratic.  McCain is from a neighboring state, which helps, but not too much.  Remember that New Mexico voted for DC's Gore over Texas's Bush, and nearly did the same for Kerry.  In addition, the high number of Hispanics who are tired of the Republican party will push Obama over the top.
  • Pennsylvania is Democratic.  At the risk of oversimplifying the state, it seems a lot like Ohio, only a smidgen more favorable to Democrats.

That motivates me.
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
auburntiger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1267
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.61, S: 0.65

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2008, 05:14:11 am »
Ignore

Louisiana will not be a tossup this year
Logged

Moderate Republican turned Independent.
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2008, 11:26:44 am »
Ignore

yeah
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
JSojourner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11629
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2008, 04:43:08 pm »
Ignore

Weasel,

I hope you're right.  But I don't think so.  I think Missouri is lean or even likely Republican.  While voters through out Jim Talent, he was hardly a good Senator or a smart campaigner.  He looked horrible in the debates with McCaskill.  And didn't she come from a well-known Missouri family? 

Plus, I think some states tend to vote one way for Senators, Governors and Congressmen -- and another way entirely for President.  North Dakotans keep sending Dorgan, Conrad and Pomeroy back to D.C.  But they vote consistently for Republican Presidential candidates.  I am just not sure how a state votes for Gubernatorial or Senate candidates necessarily translates into the Presidential race.  But like I say, I sincerely hope I am wrong.  I am so hoping for the days when there are more reliably Democratic states and Missouri would definitely be one of the ones I want us to pick up.

As to Louisiana, I think Hurricane Katrina displaced a large number of the folk who might have made a Presidential race competetive there.  And even before Katrina, Louisiana was going for Reagans and Bushes and Doles. There's another North Dakota.  Until Breaux left office, it had 2 D Senators. 
Logged

MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12573
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2008, 04:52:34 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, but Clinton seems to do well in that area and Obama seemed to do well just across the river in Butternut Illinois.
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19743
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2008, 02:37:54 am »
Ignore

This thread is funny.

Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
paul718
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4022


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: -4.35

View Profile
« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2008, 07:03:42 pm »
Ignore

This thread is funny.



Yes, but only because the credit collapse sent everyone's projections out the window. 
Logged
Roma Caput Mundi
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1266
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.52

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2008, 01:49:58 pm »
Ignore

I believe that McCain (esp a McCain/Lieberman ticket) would crush Obama

McCain would get 55% (B/C in 2004 + PA, MI, NH,CT,DE,WI,MN & OR)

1. Remember the entusiasm that McCovern generated or the fact that many people believed that Reagan would lose in 1984?

2. Congress

3. McCain's ability to get things done and build coaltions.

4. Indys and Repubs tactically voting against Clinton in IA actually shows the strength of the base.

5. Students will get bored between now and Novemeber.

6. Obama's problems with Blue collar voters and his weakness on national security.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/why-a-mccain-vs-obama-contest-could-result-in-a-republican-landslide/
...or maybe not.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19743
United States


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2008, 01:20:03 pm »
Ignore

This thread is funny.



Yes, but only because the credit collapse sent everyone's projections out the window. 

Read the generic elections predictions in my sig.

Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines