Finishing a strong second-- how long could the GOP battle go?
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  Finishing a strong second-- how long could the GOP battle go?
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Author Topic: Finishing a strong second-- how long could the GOP battle go?  (Read 448 times)
NHPolitico
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« on: January 07, 2008, 01:35:59 PM »

Since only the following states have true winner take all:

Arizona   
Connecticut
Delaware
Missouri
New Jersey
New York
Utah   
Vermont   
Virginia

And with no one really seeming to gather a sizable base of support, with second place finishers finishing just behind the top vote getter in each state, couldn't this process drag out for quite a while for the GOP?

Has anyone run any sims where reasonable outcomes in each state leads to chaos late in the process of no candidate having enough delegates or having no commanding lead? The superdelegates could tip the balance to make the lead a lot bigger, but a mere narrow lead by the eventual winner could cause plenty of dissatisfaction with that result.  It seems that it's very possible that no one could really get momentum in this race, just candidates picking up delegates in various places and never getting a big lead.

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snowguy716
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2008, 01:46:09 PM »

Since only the following states have true winner take all:

Arizona   
Connecticut
Delaware
Missouri
New Jersey
New York
Utah   
Vermont   
Virginia

And with no one really seeming to gather a sizable base of support, with second place finishers finishing just behind the top vote getter in each state, couldn't this process drag out for quite a while for the GOP?

Has anyone run any sims where reasonable outcomes in each state leads to chaos late in the process of no candidate having enough delegates or having no commanding lead? The superdelegates could tip the balance to make the lead a lot bigger, but a mere narrow lead by the eventual winner could cause plenty of dissatisfaction with that result.  It seems that it's very possible that no one could really get momentum in this race, just candidates picking up delegates in various places and never getting a big lead.



It's going to be interesting.  I think a winner will emerge sooner than later, but it certainly won't be clear and I think you will see a fragmentation of the party that could make for an interesting convention in Minneapolis this summer.

One thing is very clear:  The longer this drags out, the more it will hurt the Republicans in the general election.  In fact, if Hillary performs poorly, she might adopt the "well, whatever is best for the party" approach, drop out, give full support to Obama, and watch him sail to an easy victory against a pissed off, fragmented, and very down Republican party.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2008, 01:50:14 PM »

I think that's overestimating Hillary's altruism. In fact, it's also possible she may decide to secretly sabotage Obama's chances in the general lest she has to wait for 2016 instead of 2012.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2008, 01:53:30 PM »

I think that's overestimating Hillary's altruism. In fact, it's also possible she may decide to secretly sabotage Obama's chances in the general lest she has to wait for 2016 instead of 2012.

While Clinton has a very calculating and cold mantel, I don't think she's that much of a power hungry bitch.

I think she is most concerned with herself and her perception among the public.  She can gauge that any rotten tactics on her part would put her in a more negative light than she's already in.  If the momentum is huge for Obama, she won't try to sabotage him.  Hillary is quite obviously of the "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" crowd.
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