Pennsylvania in '84
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« on: July 27, 2004, 10:59:45 PM »

Hello.

Can anyone tell me anything about what occured in Pennsylvania in 1984 that caused such a out-of-synch vote for Mondale/against Reagan in Pennsylvania. Much of the state had very close results, and in the West, especially around Pittsburgh, Mondale outright won, and that included rural/small town areas, sometimes above 60%?

Does anyone know why?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2004, 11:03:18 PM »

Hello.

Can anyone tell me anything about what occured in Pennsylvania in 1984 that caused such a out-of-synch vote for Mondale/against Reagan in Pennsylvania. Much of the state had very close results, and in the West, especially around Pittsburgh, Mondale outright won, and that included rural/small town areas, sometimes above 60%?

Does anyone know why?


I'm going to say Mondale's strenght among unions help a lot.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2004, 05:44:44 AM »

The collapse of the steel industry IIRC... even stranger in PA was the fact that Reagan won every county in the Anthracite Region (normally strongly Democrat)... I can only guess that was something to do with the areas social conservatism and the "Reagan Democrat" factor.
Even wierder was the fact that the Democrats actually picked up PA-11 from the GOP that year (Kanjorski's held that district ever since)
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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2004, 09:58:02 PM »

From what I recall reading, Reagan was immensely un-popular (And continues to be to this day, I should know, I live here) in Pittsburgh for the collapse of our beloved steel industry.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2004, 02:03:34 AM »

From what I recall reading, Reagan was immensely un-popular (And continues to be to this day, I should know, I live here) in Pittsburgh for the collapse of our beloved steel industry.

You live about 300 miles from me.  From what I'm gathering, the Republican movement has gotten incredibly stronger out there considering it was once a very strong Democratic area.  Do you think Bush will do better or worse than 2000 out there?  I'll fill you in on the Southeast... Bush is getting his @ss handed to him!  Kerry will come out of the 5-county regions by an almost 2-1 margin.
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Dr. Cynic
Lawrence Watson
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2004, 01:07:48 PM »

Bush is really lagging out this way. The news is mostly Republican, but Kerry is up by as much as 20, and as little as 10. Kerry will win PA, the same as Gore, but by a larger margin.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2004, 03:09:12 PM »

Bush is really lagging out this way. The news is mostly Republican, but Kerry is up by as much as 20, and as little as 10. Kerry will win PA, the same as Gore, but by a larger margin.

You haven't talked to supersoulty have you yet?  He's a great, intelligent guy, but he will have you believe Pennsylvania is going to be some right-wing Republican stronghold.  What's interesting is Pittsburgh's metro area has trended 22% more Republican since 1990 and Philadelphia has doen liekwise in the Democratic direction.  It seems the Dems are losing their sparsely urban strongholds such as anthracite country in NE Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley and around Pittsburgh.  A lot of it was the "Reagan Democrat" phenomenon, but I think it's effects are wearing down.  On the other hand the GOP had an incredibly effective machine in the 1980s in the Southeastern PA suburbs.  Now the socially liberal, economically moderate suburbanites are seeing the GOP as being too far right and their machines have a lot of corruption (see Asher/Fawkes).  Ron Reagan Sr. said Montgomery County had one of the 3 best Republican organizations in the country in 1988.  Since then it voted for Dem Presidents in 1992-2000 and most of the country is represented by Democrat Joe Hoeffel and will be Allyson Schwartz in the Fall (sorry Phil).
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2004, 03:17:08 PM »

Bush is really lagging out this way. The news is mostly Republican, but Kerry is up by as much as 20, and as little as 10. Kerry will win PA, the same as Gore, but by a larger margin.
 Ron Reagan Sr. said Montgomery County had one of the 3 best Republican organizations in the country in 1988.  Since then it voted for Dem Presidents in 1992-2000 and most of the country is represented by Democrat Joe Hoeffel and will be Allyson Schwartz in the Fall (sorry Phil).

Montco is trending Dem in the Presidential elections and will continue to do so. I think Bush can win Montco (and other SE PA counties) this year but overall it is becoming a good area for Democratic Presidential candidates. However when it comes to Congress, it is closer. Hoeffel received 50% of the Montco vote to Brown's 47% in 2002. This year, however, Brown will win the county.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2004, 03:57:35 PM »

Um... the Democrats have recovered a *lot* of lost ground in the Anthracite Region since '84.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2004, 04:00:35 PM »

Um... the Democrats have recovered a *lot* of lost ground in the Anthracite Region since '84.


Who said they didn't?
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Dr. Cynic
Lawrence Watson
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2004, 04:53:31 PM »

Kerry leads in this area by at least ten points, but he lags in the center of the state. The big cities: Pittsburgh, Philly, and Erie are all safely Democratic.
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