Could Edwards be 'Kingmaker'?

[afleitch]

I tend to believe that Obama, Clinton and Edwards will stay in this right through to Super Tuesday, even Edwards even though he knows he doesn't have a shot at the nomination. Should it be a close race right through that date and beyond, and bearing in mind superdelegates, is it possible for neither Clinton or Obama to have enough support on paper going into the convention? Could Edwards be the kingmaker? If so what would the likely outcome be?

[Speed of Sound]

I could see it, but it would take alot more twists and turns, in which theres no way Edwards backs Clinton, whom he clearly hates with a passion.

[MODU]

I don't see where Obama and Clinton would be so close going into the convention where Edwards tiny number of delegates would make a difference.  After Super Duper Tuesday, I have a feeling it will be a one-person race for the Dems.

[Bacon King]

I think if he were to drop out and endorse someone before SuperDuper Tuesday, he could determine how the election would go. However, his support at the convention itself wouldn't be very relevent.

[Erc]

Some Edwards fans are trying to use this argument...but personally I don't see it happening.  Most recent national polls showed him at what...20%?  And that was only due to the boost out of Iowa.  As he continues to lose in the January states (and lose big), he'll start losing support.

He could easily be polling below 15% by Super Tuesday.  He got under 17% in NH, and I'm sure he'll drop more than 2 points by then.  And if he does, he won't get delegates in most states...so he'd have (at most) 5% of the delegates when all is said and done, as opposed to 15-17%--not enough to act as a kingmaker.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Edwards would need to maintain solid numbers all the way into super-Tuesday. Plus need a pretty much split Obama/Clinton vote to give him anything besides endorsement strength... as opposed to actual delegates.

[JSojourner]

He's screwed.  Much as it pains me to say it, he can't win a single state from here on out. 

I wish him well, and I especially wish his wife a speedy recovery from what must be a horrible illness.

[Eraserhead]

He needs to get out and endorse. We all know who he would endorse.

[TomC]

Edwards seems to be doing better with the kind of supporters Clinton's getting though, working class, not as educated. Edwards clearly prefers Obama, that doesn't mean his voters (excluding his most ardent supporters) are going to go against the demographic trends that seem to be developing.

And don't we really think that Edwards' working class supporters are probably less likely than other voters to be real confident about a black guy from Harvard named Barack Obama?

Edwards helps Obama more by staying in and splitting that kind of voter. His endorsement would be good for a news cycle.

[Lincoln Republican]

With the way the primary and caucus system is set up, it is very unlikely, nearly impossible, for the major candidates to go into the convention without a winner already determined.

Even by withdrawing from the race before the winner emerges in the primary season, and endorsing one of the front runners, this would not likely have enough influence to sway the electorate one way or the other.  Endorsements usually have little impact.

[Padfoot]

Superdelegates would put either Clinton or Obama over 50% at the convention if Edwards managed to keep them both below that through the primaries.  He will have no voice in choosing the nominee unless he drops out an endorses someone.

[Likely Voter]

if he is going to do it now is when he has the most power. I see no way for him to win, any other states. After coming in third in NV and SC he will really have no excuse, but for some reason I think he will stick it out to super tuesday

[Gabu]

If he gets under 15% in Nevada and then comes in third in South Carolina (his home turf), he'll probably drop out after that.

[ShadowRocket]

He's screwed.  Much as it pains me to say it, he can't win a single state from here on out.

I still think he could win a few states. I think he'll probably come in third in Nevada, but I do think he could win in South Carolina because Hillary and Obama may split the African-American vote down there. And I think he could perform well and possibly win some of the the closed primaries on Feb. 5.

[gorkay]

He needs to win South Carolina to stay viable. I think Hillary hopes he stays in as long as possible because he may well be splitting the anti-Hillary vote with Obama. For the same reason, I think Obama wants him out of it as soon as possible.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

He needs to get out and endorse. We all know who he would endorse.

While he might well endorse Obama, I think Edward's supporters are going to lean towards Clinton.  Is there anyway yet to see how Clinton and Obama did in the Iowa caucuses in those precinct where Edwards failed to get 15% (if any).  Comparing the margin there to the overall margin would give the clearest available information on who gains from an Edwards withdrawal.

[Tender Branson]

We all know who he would endorse.

Yeah.



Or is he pissed now that Kerry endorsed Obama ?

[Ben.]

He needs to get out and endorse. We all know who he would endorse.

He will... my gut says he'll bow out post-SC (up until then Obama's probably on his own so to speak).