Bet of the year!!!! Nevada will be won by Kerry

[nomorelies]

Nevadas populaton has increased since 2000. The majority of these hae been from California. Kerry will win Nevada by 1-2 points but the bet at http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

is way to high. 56.5 % chance of Bush winning Nevada is too high and you have to bet against it.

Another good bet as a gambler is New Hampshire to be won by Bush. At 35.4% i think its slightly too low.

Bush to win Missouri at 555 is way to low. I woyld have Bush 65-35 to win the state.

[Beef]

Nevadas populaton has increased since 2000. The majority of these hae been from California.

I disagree that this has necessarily made Nevada more Democratic.  Think about the sort of people who are going to move to Nevada.  They:

1. Have the means to pick up and move to a new place
2. Want to live in a place with very low tax and small government
3. Are running away from California's high-tax liberal nightmare.

However, I agree that Kerry has a very good chance in Nevada.

[HockeyDude]

Nevadas populaton has increased since 2000. The majority of these hae been from California.

I disagree that this has necessarily made Nevada more Democratic.  Think about the sort of people who are going to move to Nevada.  They:

1. Have the means to pick up and move to a new place
2. Want to live in a place with very low tax and small government
3. Are running away from California's high-tax liberal nightmare.

However, I agree that Kerry has a very good chance in Nevada.

I will agree that some people may run away from taxes, but I really don't think it's THAT many.  The Las Vegas area is growing rapidly, the rest of the state is republican.  I think Nevada may be the absolute hardest to predict this year.  It may actually come down to Nevada.  If everything stays the same as 2000, with Kerry picking up NH and WV in the east, by late at night on election night it will come down to Nevada (considering most of the west obviously leans one way or the other).  

[WalterMitty]

nomo you believe kerry is going to win everystate.

[khirkhib]

Neveda.  A good bet but small change.  The BIG BET.  The money maker is Georgia.   I don't know how you can bet against Bush winning there but most sane people have it as a give away.  Kerry doesn't even need it.  By the time Kerry is polling comfortably  above Bush in Georgia he will  can stop campaigning and start sipping Mai Tais poolside.

Anyway, much like Hawaii, Georgia is polling closer than you would think.  Especially if you look at the numbers of the last poll done there.
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This is from the Atlanta Journal August 9th

Last week, a GOP political consulting firm named Strategic Vision released one of its regular polls, which had President Bush leading John Kerry in Georgia 52 percent to 43 percent.

One of their points was that a strong Bush showing in Georgia could help Republicans down-ballot.

But a wonk at state Democratic Party headquarters noted that the Strategic Vision poll was based on the assumption that only 18 percent of African-American voters would turn out in November.

The wonk re-weighted the poll at a more realistic 20.5 percent turnout among black Georgians. In that universe, George W. Bush dips below the 50 percent mark to 49.5 percent. Kerry nudges upwards to 45.5 percent.
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I've made some good money on Roullette a couple times.  And every so often you have to bet on 00

[AuH2O]

Anyone want to actually win money, rather than lose it?

-Bush to win Iowa

-Bush to win 350+ electoral votes

The first is fairly safe, the second a little riskier. BUT, you make 7:1 on the 350+electoral votes.

So, $300 becomes $2000. Even if it's a 50/50 chance (which is my analysis at this point), it still pays.

[Beef]

-Bush to win 350+ electoral votes

He'd have to go at least 10% ahead of Kerry:



(Flip PA to Bush)

[AuH2O]

Flip PA, and he could lose Maine and I think Washington and still have over 350.

That loosely equates to a theoretical 54/45/1, though at 53/46/1 it could still happen.

But Iowa is a tossup state that Bush will win if he takes the popular vote, and right now he is like a 3:1 dog. Cash in time...

[nomorelies]

Actually Walter i see Bush winning a few more states than 0. You got to remember

Texas - cheap gas compared to the rest of America that builds musuems that tell lies like Texans won the freedom of Texas when in fact it was Britain.

Idaho- lies about inventing the television. Completely unacceptable to say that. but hey Bush supporters allow McCain and Kerrys names to be dragged through the mud with twisting the words. "i served with John Kerry eh..NO

Kansas- this state has banned Charles Darwin from the educational sector. No books in Kansas at any school is allowed to talk about evolution. AND Adam and Eve is in the science curriculem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Utah - how the hell can you reason with a mormon.

North Dakota - Bismarck is the dullest state capital in America. The main headline in the Bismarck Tribune when i was there early in the year was "12 year old boy robbed of school books". Yep with the war in Iraq, gay marriage, abortion etc the headline was about a boy.

Wyoming - They are known as the Cowboy state and they have wonderful environment yet they go and vote for a man that is against there environment. Does Bush want clean air and clean water. Yes only if Cheney and his oil pals write that in the policy for him to read out as the face of there party.

South Dakota - Filled with the problems of draught every year. Bush showed the people of the South Dakota why they hate big government. Yep Bush gave huge subsideis to the few and allowed the other farmers to feed for themselves. Bush stand s for Big Government in South Dakota yet they still vote for Bush. and thats why they dont vote Democrat.

Montana - they have taking the lead in helping all the citizens but then they go and elect a prat that doesnt stand up for they views. Helena was used as a test to ban smoking and see the affects of it. The life expectancy increased. Bush liike his big drug companies and his big oil companies is also sponserred by his big tobacco coompanies.

I will finish the rest later.

My book is going to be published on the 13th september "Understanding a George Bush voter". If anyones interested send me an e-mail and i`ll get you a copy. My publicist thinks i will sell 100,000 copies in the UK.

[MODU]

Just post it electronically for all of us to see.

[nomorelies]

modu - Virginia is one of my favouritw Bush states that i went toO i have no bad things to say about Virginia. My Kansas account is an absolute classic. Imagine the scene,  me walkiing into a Bible store that species for certain people like "teenage bibles..pregnant bibles...virgin bibles.etc i have the pics in the book and me with my biology book from when i was 10 years old. She couldnt explain to me why God allowed Dinosaurs to die when in fact he created them according to the women.

[MODU]

We have more than our fair share of Bible book stores as well as Private schools.  In fact, just on our Pop Rock station about an hour ago was a Christian radio commercial discussing Jesus and why he died.  But that's not to say that commercials for the adult entertainment stores don't come on at 10pm.  We're a good balance.

As far as Kansas goes, they have the right to determine the curriculum to be taught within their schools.  These individuals are elected by their populous, so if they have a problem with it, they can replace them in the next election.  Probably won't though, since people tend to congregate in states which fit their needs, be it economical or political.

As far as Dinosaurs go . . . how do you know God didn't create them?  Though I am Christian, there is more than enough evidence out there that evolution exist.  Yet, that doesn't mean God didn't create the World AND allowed for the process of evolution to occur.  This is why I have a problem with our school systems out here which ignore not only creationism as an alternative topic to be discussed with evolution, as well as the fact that Christianity is barely mentioned in our history texts which contain chapters dedicated to other religions.

You have to have balance and equality, especially when it comes to religion, since there is no way to disprove its existance . . . hence, the existance of "faith."

(And that's probably the most anyone will get out of me that might be considered "preaching."  hahaha)

[HoopsCubs]

Nevadas populaton has increased since 2000. The majority of these hae been from California. Kerry will win Nevada by 1-2 points but the bet at http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

is way to high. 56.5 % chance of Bush winning Nevada is too high and you have to bet against it.

Another good bet as a gambler is New Hampshire to be won by Bush. At 35.4% i think its slightly too low.

Bush to win Missouri at 555 is way to low. I woyld have Bush 65-35 to win the state.

If anything, it will be the increased Latino vote in Clark county that hands Nevada to Kerry.   I'll repeat what I and others have said: if Kerry/Edwards win WV and NH, and holds PA and WI, Nevada will probably be the deciding state.   Winning WV, NH and NV puts the Dem ticket into a situation where they don't need OH, FL or MO.  I know there is a lot of optimism the Dems have about winning OH or MO.  I still don't see it.  I still think FL is more winnable for Kerry than the other 2 bellwethers.
 

[opebo]

Anyone want to actually win money, rather than lose it?

-Bush to win Iowa

Yeah, Bush winning Iowa is slightly more likely than Kerry winning Nevada.

[Friar]

Anyone want to actually win money, rather than lose it?

-Bush to win Iowa

-Bush to win 350+ electoral votes

The first is fairly safe, the second a little riskier. BUT, you make 7:1 on the 350+electoral votes.

So, $300 becomes $2000. Even if it's a 50/50 chance (which is my analysis at this point), it still pays.

What are you smoking? I want some too.

[??????????]

Nomo,

You are getting more moronic with every posting.

[nomorelies]

Remind you of someone your going to vote for?

[khirkhib]

LOL that was funny.  Tit for tat.

[khirkhib]

This article is from the Febuary Edition of the Las Vegas Sun but it is now getting press with the Washington Post, ABC news and local papers in Neveda. As well as Bush's broken promise on Yucca Mountain.  Looks like former one-term republican Senator Hecht may help deliver Nevada.  Hate or like the guy you have to agree he is pretty fast on his feet.

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Former U.S. Sen. Chic Hecht of Nevada is a staunch Republican, but he thanks his lucky stars for Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.
On July 12, 1988, Hecht was attending a weekly Republican luncheon when a piece of apple lodged firmly in his throat.

Hecht stumbled out of the room, thinking he might vomit but not wanting to do it in front of his colleagues. Sen. Kit Bond, R-Mo., thumped his back, but Hecht quickly passed out in the hallway.

Just then, Kerry stepped off an elevator, rushed to Hecht's side and gave him the Heimlich maneuver -- four times.

The lifesaving incident made international news, and Dr. Henry Heimlich, who invented the maneuver in 1974, called Hecht to say that had Kerry intervened just 30 seconds later Hecht might have been in a vegetative state for life.

"This man gave me my life," the 75-year-old Hecht said Thursday.

Hecht said he was amazed that Kerry acted so quickly -- some people were assuming that he was having a heart attack.

"He knew exactly what to do," he said. "But a lot of people know what to do. They just don't size up the situation immediately." [...]

"Only in America can this happen, where he's working against me to get me defeated and then saves my life," Hecht said.
 

[classical liberal]

I personally think that Bush will do better in OH, FL, and WV than he will in NV.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Anyone want to actually win money, rather than lose it?

-Bush to win Iowa

-Bush to win 350+ electoral votes

The first is fairly safe, the second a little riskier. BUT, you make 7:1 on the 350+electoral votes.

So, $300 becomes $2000. Even if it's a 50/50 chance (which is my analysis at this point), it still pays

The 350 is something you put 20 bucks on and run with.  Don't count on anything though.

[AuH2O]

The safest move is just to pick Bush to win... that pays 1:1 anyway. Doesn't hurt to pre-allocate some of that towards a riskier one.

And, as confident as I am of Bush winning... 350 is tough without California or Illinois. My actual prediction is around 366 or something, but even then a lot of the states would be close (Maine, Washington, etc.)

[Nation]

This article is from the Febuary Edition of the Las Vegas Sun but it is now getting press with the Washington Post, ABC news and local papers in Neveda. As well as Bush's broken promise on Yucca Mountain.  Looks like former one-term republican Senator Hecht may help deliver Nevada.  Hate or like the guy you have to agree he is pretty fast on his feet.

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Former U.S. Sen. Chic Hecht of Nevada is a staunch Republican, but he thanks his lucky stars for Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.
On July 12, 1988, Hecht was attending a weekly Republican luncheon when a piece of apple lodged firmly in his throat.

Hecht stumbled out of the room, thinking he might vomit but not wanting to do it in front of his colleagues. Sen. Kit Bond, R-Mo., thumped his back, but Hecht quickly passed out in the hallway.

Just then, Kerry stepped off an elevator, rushed to Hecht's side and gave him the Heimlich maneuver -- four times.

The lifesaving incident made international news, and Dr. Henry Heimlich, who invented the maneuver in 1974, called Hecht to say that had Kerry intervened just 30 seconds later Hecht might have been in a vegetative state for life.

"This man gave me my life," the 75-year-old Hecht said Thursday.

Hecht said he was amazed that Kerry acted so quickly -- some people were assuming that he was having a heart attack.

"He knew exactly what to do," he said. "But a lot of people know what to do. They just don't size up the situation immediately." [...]

"Only in America can this happen, where he's working against me to get me defeated and then saves my life," Hecht said.
 

That's a nice story. Politics aside, good to hear something like that.

[mddem2004]

I say Kerry 49.5%, Bush 47.5%, others 3.0% in Nevada.

[mddem2004]

And, as confident as I am of Bush winning... 350 is tough without California or Illinois. My actual prediction is around 366 or something, but even then a lot of the states would be close (Maine, Washington, etc.)

WHAT???

Man.....you really are one for the long shots!