MA Sen: AP sez Jim Ogonowksi is preparing to run against John Kerry

[Sam Spade]

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2008/01/12/ogonowski_plans_senate_run_against_kerry/

Ogonowski plans Senate run against Kerry

Associated Press Writer / January 12, 2008

BOSTON—Republican Jim Ogonowski, who narrowly lost a congressional race to Niki Tsongas in October, is preparing to challenge U.S. Sen. John Kerry, The Associated Press has learned.

Ogonowski, the brother of an airline pilot killed in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, said he's been attending Republican events around the state since his 6-point loss to Tsongas, a Democrat.

"There's nobody in Washington who represents the status quo more than John Kerry," said Ogonowski, who did not officially declare his candidacy.

Kerry, the Democratic nominee for president four years ago, hasn't faced a serious challenger since he fought off former Republican Gov. William Weld in 1996. The state GOP had no candidate against Kerry in 2002.

David Wade, a spokesman for Kerry, said Kerry is running for re-election this year to continue fights against global climate change and for universal health care, energy independence and ending the Iraq war.

"John Kerry brings to public service a lifetime of fighting the tough fights for change and standing up with courage and conviction, and he'll keep doing that in the United States Senate," Wade said.

Ogonowski ran on a platform of energy efficiency and stopping illegal immigration in his campaign for the seat vacated by Democrat Martin Meehan. He also said the Iraq war was a mistake, but he wanted the troops home only after their mission was complete. Emboldened by the results of his first run for office, the Dracut farmer said Kerry is not out of his league.

"We started a movement," the retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel said. "After my campaign ended, I've been very active throughout the state. I want to continue my public service."

Since the election, Ogonowski has attended GOP events in the 5th District, as well as in Brookline, Marshfield, and Hingham.

Kerry, 64, has $9.5 million in his campaign account, compared to the $65,000 Ogonowski has left over from his congressional run. Ogonowski said he's prepared to raise "a few million dollars."

Ogonowski won 45 percent of the vote to Tsongas' 51 percent, despite being outspent by his better-known opponent. Tsongas is the widow of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas.

Ogonowski, 49, benefited from public awareness of his family following the death of his brother John, an American Airlines captain whose plane was hijacked in the Sept. 11 attacks. But he raised just $463,000 for his campaign and eschewed any assistance from President Bush. Tsongas spent $2.5 million.

He stayed close even as Tsongas called in big guns from the Democratic Party. Among the establishment heavyweights who helped her were former President Clinton, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Edward Kennedy, Gov. Deval Patrick and Kerry.

Tobe Berkowitz, interim dean of Boston University's college of communications, said Ogonowski's chances of unseating Kerry are "slim to slimmer."

He said Kerry will benefit from high turnout for the presidential election.

"Turnout will be huge. It's going to be a walk for him. I don't see this as much of a workout for Kerry," said Berkowitz, who has worked for Democrats.

Ogonowski "did better than expected" against Tsongas, Berkowitz said, but Kerry's stock is "at a pretty good level with the voters of the Commonwealth."

Republican consultant Charley Manning disagreed, saying Kerry's record of delivering for the state is remarkably thin because he's been more interested in national and international issues.

"I think people are kind of tired of John Kerry being our senator and I think he's ripe for the picking," Manning said.

Manning said Ogonowski's "regular guy appeal" is a major contrast to the patrician Kerry. That, combined with the electorate's general desire for change in Washington, could boost Ogonowski.

"It might be the right time and the right place," Manning said.

[WalterMitty]

ugh.

well he is better than kerry, at least.

[MarkWarner08]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

[WalterMitty]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

he isnt exactly viable.

30-35% max

[Sam Spade]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

I guess that no one wants to go in there and get massacred by Johanns.

Of course, it's not like Ogonowski stands any chance against Kerry, either.  Maybe Ogonowski is just trying to pull a Romney, long-term.  Any guesses?

[MarkWarner08]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

he isnt exactly viable.

30-35% max

I'd guess in the 35-40% range, but he'll still be too far from the goal line to score an electoral touchdown.

[MarkWarner08]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

I guess that no one wants to go in there and get massacred by Johanns.

Of course, it's not like Ogonowski stands any chance against Kerry, either.  Maybe Ogonowski is just trying to pull a Romney, long-term.  Any guesses?

He probably wants to raise his statewide name ID. Perhaps he'll run for Governor in 2010. Otherwise, I don't see why he'd choose a quixotic bid for the Senate over a rerun in MA-05, which would provide him with a more reasonable chance at victory.

[Sam Spade]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

I guess that no one wants to go in there and get massacred by Johanns.

Of course, it's not like Ogonowski stands any chance against Kerry, either.  Maybe Ogonowski is just trying to pull a Romney, long-term.  Any guesses?

He probably wants to raise his statewide name ID. Perhaps he'll run for Governor in 2010. Otherwise, I don't see why he'd choose a quixotic bid for the Senate over a rerun in MA-05, which would provide him with a more reasonable chance at victory.

Well, I would personally think that there's no way he runs as strongly in MA-05 in a general election as he did in the special.  So, if he runs again there and underperforms, he'll lose the momentum.

However, if he pulls around the best we could expect he would pull (say 40%), it would certainly continue his momentum and make him more viable.  If you get my drift...

[MarkWarner08]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

I guess that no one wants to go in there and get massacred by Johanns.

Of course, it's not like Ogonowski stands any chance against Kerry, either.  Maybe Ogonowski is just trying to pull a Romney, long-term.  Any guesses?

He probably wants to raise his statewide name ID. Perhaps he'll run for Governor in 2010. Otherwise, I don't see why he'd choose a quixotic bid for the Senate over a rerun in MA-05, which would provide him with a more reasonable chance at victory.

Well, I would personally think that there's no way he runs as strongly in MA-05 in a general election as he did in the special.  So, if he runs again there and underperforms, he'll lose the momentum.

However, if he pulls around the best we could expect he would pull (say 40%), it would certainly continue his momentum and make him more viable.  If you get my drift...

Yes, I agree that performing relatively well against John Kerry would be more beneficial to his long-term political prospects than finishing with a poorer showing against Rep. Tsongas.

I look forward to seeing how Mr. Moderate, our resident expert on MA politics, reacts to this news.

[Mr.Phips]

At least the GOP found a viable candidate to run for the Senate in Massachusetts. However, Nebraska Democrats are still searching for someone to run for that open Senate seat.  It's rather disappointing for Democrats that the GOP can find someone to challenge an entrenched Senate incumbent with a massive campaign warchest before the Democrats can find anyone to run for a vacant Senate seat.

I guess that no one wants to go in there and get massacred by Johanns.

Of course, it's not like Ogonowski stands any chance against Kerry, either.  Maybe Ogonowski is just trying to pull a Romney, long-term.  Any guesses?

He probably wants to raise his statewide name ID. Perhaps he'll run for Governor in 2010. Otherwise, I don't see why he'd choose a quixotic bid for the Senate over a rerun in MA-05, which would provide him with a more reasonable chance at victory.

Well, I would personally think that there's no way he runs as strongly in MA-05 in a general election as he did in the special.  So, if he runs again there and underperforms, he'll lose the momentum.

However, if he pulls around the best we could expect he would pull (say 40%), it would certainly continue his momentum and make him more viable.  If you get my drift...

I was thinking the same thing about MA-05.  The only reason he got 45% there in the special was because Democratic areas didn't turn out while Republican areas did.  That wont be happening in a general election.

[Keystone Phil]

He seems ok. I have some disagreements with the guy but overall he seems fine. Someone who can get 35-40% in an MA Senate race in a Presidential election year is acceptable to me.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Ogonowski may end up doing better against than Kerry expected.  He might draw off a few disaffected Democrats who see Kerry as too pro-war (Isn't that why he endorsed Obama in South Carolina?) and come closer than expected, I feel that polling shows there's some anti-Kerry sentiment still in Massachusetts.  I think he could do as well as around 41% of the vote (Mitt Romney's showing against Kennedy in 1994).  But I will predict:

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE -
60% (D) Kerry
38% (R) Ogonowski

[WalterMitty]

he wont get over 35%.  not in a presidential year.

[Frodo]

I look forward to seeing how Mr. Moderate, our resident expert on MA politics, reacts to this news.

And don't forget Dave Leip -I think he also lives in Massachusetts. 

[Brittain33]

No money, no name, no appeal to Democrats who dislike Kerry, running against the tide in the state that will give the Republican his 48th or worse performance in the country. Ceiling is 35% with most voters never hearing his name before election day.

[WalterMitty]

i just hope fred smerlas doesnt decide to run.

if he does, ill bury my head in the sand and deny im a republican.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yes, I agree that performing relatively well against John Kerry would be more beneficial to his long-term political prospects than finishing with a poorer showing against Rep. Tsongas.

I look forward to seeing how Mr. Moderate, our resident expert on MA politics, reacts to this news.

Well, my initial reaction is that I'm glad the Republican Party was actually able to field a candidate this time.  They sorta kinda have a habit of not doing that for statewide races they can't win anymore.  Kinda puts a damper on the whole democracy thing if there's only one option on the ballot.

He, of course, won't win (A 40% ceiling against the lackluster Kerry sounds about right).  But Republicans are lucky to have him.  (They need him.)

[Gabu]

I look forward to seeing how Mr. Moderate, our resident expert on MA politics, reacts to this news.

And don't forget Dave Leip -I think he also lives in Massachusetts. 

I don't think Dave has ever expressed a single political view, ever.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Easy Kerry victory. Kerry's approvals aren't that great because people are mad at him for not  winning the 2004 Presidential election, not because they want Republicans to have any more power.

[HardRCafé]

Well, my initial reaction is that I'm glad the Republican Party was actually able to field a candidate this time.  They sorta kinda have a habit of not doing that for statewide races they can't win anymore.  Kinda puts a damper on the whole democracy thing if there's only one option on the ballot.

Ditto.  He has nothing to lose, politically, and at least it gives the anti-Kerry minority an alternative.  I was hoping he would do this.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Well, my initial reaction is that I'm glad the Republican Party was actually able to field a candidate this time.  They sorta kinda have a habit of not doing that for statewide races they can't win anymore.  Kinda puts a damper on the whole democracy thing if there's only one option on the ballot.

Ditto.  He has nothing to lose, politically, and at least it gives the anti-Kerry minority an alternative.  I was hoping he would do this.

The anti-Kerry minority is practically a majority.  The problem there is that the anti-Kerry majority has significant overlap with the anti-Republican supermajority.

[HardRCafé]

The anti-Kerry minority actually willing to do something about it, I meant.

[Joe Biden 2020]

*** laughs hysterically ***

[Adlai Stevenson]

Kerry currently has $9.5 million in his campaign account compared to Ogonowski’s $65,000.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/14/ogonowski_to_challenge_kerry.html

[Хahar 🤔]

I look forward to seeing how Mr. Moderate, our resident expert on MA politics, reacts to this news.

And don't forget Dave Leip -I think he also lives in Massachusetts. 

I don't think Dave has ever expressed a single political view, ever.

Except in his alter egos, which certainly exist.